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Statistics - Answer- The term statistics refers to both the numbers that describe the
health of the populations and the science that helps to interpret those numbers.The
science of statistics is a set of concepts and methods used to analyze data in order to
extract information. Statistics makes possible the translation of data into information
about causes and effects, health risks, and disease cures.
The Uncertainty of Science - Answer- In many cases, there are not enough data even to
give us that degree of certainty, or the data that exist are too ambiguous to allow a valid
conclusion. Contradictory results from epidemiologic studies are common. There are
many possible sources of error in this kind of research, including bias and confounding,
which are factors irrelevant to the hypothesis being tested that may affect a result or
conclusion.
Mammography Screening and the Uncertainty of Science - Answer- People sometimes
demand certainty even when science cannot provide it, as occurred in 1997 over the
issue of whether women ages 40 through 49 should be screened for breast cancer
using mammography. When Dr. Richard Klausner, the director of the National Cancer
Institute (NCI), called together a panel of experts in early 1997 to advise him on the
issue, the panel concluded that, for younger women, the benefit did not justify the risks
and costs, and recommended that each woman make the decision in consultation with
her doctor, considering her own particular medical and family history. It seems clear that
pressure from politicians eager to get credit for supporting women's health led to a
pretense of scientific certainty where none existed. Remarkably, the whole political
uproar was repeated in 2009, when an independent panel of experts, appointed by the
Department of Health and Human Services, issued a recommendation that routine
breast cancer screening begin at age 50, not 40.
Probabilities - Answer- Scientists quantify uncertainty by measuring probabilities. Since
all events, including all experimental results, can be influenced by chance, probabilities
are used to describe the variety and frequency of past outcomes under similar
conditions as a way of predicting what should happen in the future.
False-Positives and False-Negatives - Answer- Studies with low power are likely to
produce false-negative results (i.e., to find no effect when there actually is one). False-
positive results occur when the study finds an effect that is not real. This common
weakness in epidemiologic studies is probably one reason for the contradictory results
so often reported in the news