GGH3705: Population Geography & Spatial Analysis Assignment 1 – Sample
GGH3705 ASSIGNMENT 1 | POPULATION GEOGRAPHY & SPATIAL ANALYSIS |
COMPLETE SAMPLE ANSWER | DISTINCTION LEVEL | UNISA 2026
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA
Department of Geography
GGH3705: Population Geography & Spatial
Analysis
Assignment 1 – Spatial Patterns of Population Change
Student Name: Jane Doe
Student Number: 12345678
Module Code: GGH3705
Assignment Number: Assignment 1
Due Date:
Submission Date:
Lecturer: Prof. A. Nkosi
Word Count: Approximately 2,850 words
Declaration: I declare that this assignment is my own original work. All sources have been properly
acknowledged, and I have not submitted this work previously for any other academic purpose.
1. Introduction
Population geography is a branch of human geography concerned with the spatial distribution,
composition, migration, and growth of human populations. It integrates demographic data with spatial
analytical methods to reveal patterns that purely statistical approaches might obscure. In South Africa,
rapid urbanisation, persistent rural-to-urban migration, and the enduring spatial legacy of apartheid-
era planning make population geography a critically relevant field of study.
This assignment examines spatial patterns of population change in South Africa between 1996 and
2022, drawing primarily on census data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Using concepts of
University of South Africa (UNISA) | Department of Geography Page 1
, GGH3705: Population Geography & Spatial Analysis Assignment 1 – Sample
population density, demographic transition, and spatial autocorrelation, the analysis investigates
which metropolitan areas and district municipalities experienced the most significant population
changes, the demographic characteristics of migration streams, and the policy implications of
observed patterns.
The assignment is structured as follows: Section 2 provides the theoretical framework; Section 3
describes the data and methodology; Section 4 presents and analyses the findings; Section 5 draws
policy-relevant conclusions.
2. Theoretical Framework
2.1 The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) remains a foundational framework in population
geography. Originally proposed by Notestein (1945) and later refined by Omran (1971) in his
epidemiological transition theory, the DTM describes a sequence of stages through which populations
pass as they modernise. These stages are characterised by shifting relationships between fertility,
mortality, and natural increase.
South Africa occupies a complex position on the DTM continuum. While overall fertility rates have
declined since the 1990s (from approximately 3.1 children per woman to 2.4 by 2022), the HIV/AIDS
epidemic introduced a unique mortality spike in the late 1990s and early 2000s that distorts standard
DTM expectations. This epidemiological disruption means that South Africa cannot be positioned
neatly in Stage 3 or 4 of the classical model.
2.2 Spatial Analysis and Population Distribution
Tobler's First Law of Geography — 'everything is related to everything else, but near things are more
related than distant things' — underpins the spatial analytical approach adopted in this assignment.
Spatial autocorrelation, measured using Moran's I statistic, allows identification of clustering patterns
in population change that would be invisible in aspatial analyses.
The concept of population density, expressed as persons per square kilometre, provides a basis for
comparative analysis across units of unequal area. However, density alone is insufficient: choropleth
mapping must be interpreted alongside the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), which warns that
statistical results can change significantly when spatial units of aggregation are altered.
2.3 Migration Theory
Ravenstein's Laws of Migration (1885) established early principles regarding migration distance, step
migration, and the role of economic 'push' and 'pull' factors. Lee's (1966) push-pull model expanded
this framework, while more recent scholarship has highlighted the significance of social networks,
remittance economies, and structural inequality in shaping migration streams.
In the South African context, the legacy of migrant labour systems established under apartheid
continues to influence internal migration patterns. The gravitational pull of Gauteng and the Western
Cape contrasts sharply with persistent population losses in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, patterns
consistent with classic economic core-periphery models.
3. Data and Methodology
3.1 Data Sources
This study draws on the following primary data sources:
University of South Africa (UNISA) | Department of Geography Page 2
GGH3705 ASSIGNMENT 1 | POPULATION GEOGRAPHY & SPATIAL ANALYSIS |
COMPLETE SAMPLE ANSWER | DISTINCTION LEVEL | UNISA 2026
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA
Department of Geography
GGH3705: Population Geography & Spatial
Analysis
Assignment 1 – Spatial Patterns of Population Change
Student Name: Jane Doe
Student Number: 12345678
Module Code: GGH3705
Assignment Number: Assignment 1
Due Date:
Submission Date:
Lecturer: Prof. A. Nkosi
Word Count: Approximately 2,850 words
Declaration: I declare that this assignment is my own original work. All sources have been properly
acknowledged, and I have not submitted this work previously for any other academic purpose.
1. Introduction
Population geography is a branch of human geography concerned with the spatial distribution,
composition, migration, and growth of human populations. It integrates demographic data with spatial
analytical methods to reveal patterns that purely statistical approaches might obscure. In South Africa,
rapid urbanisation, persistent rural-to-urban migration, and the enduring spatial legacy of apartheid-
era planning make population geography a critically relevant field of study.
This assignment examines spatial patterns of population change in South Africa between 1996 and
2022, drawing primarily on census data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Using concepts of
University of South Africa (UNISA) | Department of Geography Page 1
, GGH3705: Population Geography & Spatial Analysis Assignment 1 – Sample
population density, demographic transition, and spatial autocorrelation, the analysis investigates
which metropolitan areas and district municipalities experienced the most significant population
changes, the demographic characteristics of migration streams, and the policy implications of
observed patterns.
The assignment is structured as follows: Section 2 provides the theoretical framework; Section 3
describes the data and methodology; Section 4 presents and analyses the findings; Section 5 draws
policy-relevant conclusions.
2. Theoretical Framework
2.1 The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) remains a foundational framework in population
geography. Originally proposed by Notestein (1945) and later refined by Omran (1971) in his
epidemiological transition theory, the DTM describes a sequence of stages through which populations
pass as they modernise. These stages are characterised by shifting relationships between fertility,
mortality, and natural increase.
South Africa occupies a complex position on the DTM continuum. While overall fertility rates have
declined since the 1990s (from approximately 3.1 children per woman to 2.4 by 2022), the HIV/AIDS
epidemic introduced a unique mortality spike in the late 1990s and early 2000s that distorts standard
DTM expectations. This epidemiological disruption means that South Africa cannot be positioned
neatly in Stage 3 or 4 of the classical model.
2.2 Spatial Analysis and Population Distribution
Tobler's First Law of Geography — 'everything is related to everything else, but near things are more
related than distant things' — underpins the spatial analytical approach adopted in this assignment.
Spatial autocorrelation, measured using Moran's I statistic, allows identification of clustering patterns
in population change that would be invisible in aspatial analyses.
The concept of population density, expressed as persons per square kilometre, provides a basis for
comparative analysis across units of unequal area. However, density alone is insufficient: choropleth
mapping must be interpreted alongside the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), which warns that
statistical results can change significantly when spatial units of aggregation are altered.
2.3 Migration Theory
Ravenstein's Laws of Migration (1885) established early principles regarding migration distance, step
migration, and the role of economic 'push' and 'pull' factors. Lee's (1966) push-pull model expanded
this framework, while more recent scholarship has highlighted the significance of social networks,
remittance economies, and structural inequality in shaping migration streams.
In the South African context, the legacy of migrant labour systems established under apartheid
continues to influence internal migration patterns. The gravitational pull of Gauteng and the Western
Cape contrasts sharply with persistent population losses in the Eastern Cape and Limpopo, patterns
consistent with classic economic core-periphery models.
3. Data and Methodology
3.1 Data Sources
This study draws on the following primary data sources:
University of South Africa (UNISA) | Department of Geography Page 2
