OCR GCSE Geography 2026 Exams:
Master Guide & Predictions
Paper 1
Disclaimer: This guide is based on data-driven predictions of past paper trends,
examiner reports, and specification requirements. It is a powerful tool to focus
your revision, but it is not a crystal ball—you must still revise the whole syllabus!
Visual Legend
⚠️ Common Examiner Pitfall: Where students drop easy marks.
🧠 Grade 9 Critical Thinking: Nuanced points that elevate your answer.
📊 Required Statistics: The specific numbers you need to memorise.
Timing & Structure Guide
The 1-Minute-Per-Mark Rule: Spend ~6 minutes on a 6-marker and ~8-9
minutes on 8-marker. Move on if you run out of time!
The PEEL Framework: Structure your paragraphs clearly: Point, Evidence
(insert specific stats/dates/locations 📊), Explanation, Link.
The Golden Rule: The secret to a Grade 9 is specific numbers, nuanced
evaluation, and strong, justified conclusions.
Prediction 1: Atmospheric Hazards / Droughts (6
Marks)
The Predicted Question: Explain why droughts are difficult to manage.
The Cheat Sheet:
Case Study / Context: California, USA vs. Ethiopia
The California drought cost a staggering $2.7 billion and required them to
build a $1 billion desalination plant. 📊
In stark contrast, 22 million people faced acute food insecurity in Ethiopia in
2022. 📊
⚠️ Pitfall: Don't just generically describe what a drought is; you need
specific, hard data.
🧠 Grade 9 Judgment: The smartest way to tackle this is to contrast an
advanced country like the USA with a developing one like Ethiopia to show
how management scales with wealth and technology.
, Grade 9 Model Answer:
Point: Drought is a slow-onset hazard, making its trigger point unclear and its
management extremely costly.
Evidence: For example, the California drought (2011-2017) cost $2.7 billion in
economic losses, prompting the construction of a $1 billion desalination plant in
Carlsbad that only met 7% of San Diego's water needs. 📊
Explanation: This demonstrates that even advanced countries struggle with the
immense capital required to manage water deficits. In contrast, developing
nations face even greater difficulties; in Ethiopia, 80% of the rural population
relies on rain-fed agriculture, and the 2022 drought left 22 million people facing
acute food insecurity. 📊
Link: Therefore, droughts are inherently difficult to manage because their
unpredictable, escalating nature outpaces existing infrastructure, while the
sheer cost of intervention limits response capacity, especially in developing
nations.
Prediction 2: Sustaining Ecosystems / Coral
Reefs (8 Marks)
The Predicted Question: Evaluate strategies used to protect coral reef
ecosystems.
The Cheat Sheet:
Case Study / Context: The Great Barrier Reef
Local management includes marine zones; coral cover in no-take zones is
30% higher than in unprotected areas. 📊
Rising ocean temperatures globally bleached 50% of shallow corals in 2016
and 2022. 📊
⚠️ Pitfall: Avoid "Rainforest Defaultism!" Examiners hate when you panic,
see the word ecosystem, and just start writing about the Amazon.
🧠 Grade 9 Judgment: To secure top marks, you must evaluate global threat
limitations and weigh local protection against unavoidable global warming.
Grade 9 Model Answer:
Point: Local management strategies, such as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs),
offer effective localised protection for coral reefs but are ultimately limited by
global climatic threats.
Evidence: In the Great Barrier Reef, marine zoning restricts fishing and
dredging, leading to coral cover being 30% higher in no-take zones compared to
unprotected areas. 📊
Master Guide & Predictions
Paper 1
Disclaimer: This guide is based on data-driven predictions of past paper trends,
examiner reports, and specification requirements. It is a powerful tool to focus
your revision, but it is not a crystal ball—you must still revise the whole syllabus!
Visual Legend
⚠️ Common Examiner Pitfall: Where students drop easy marks.
🧠 Grade 9 Critical Thinking: Nuanced points that elevate your answer.
📊 Required Statistics: The specific numbers you need to memorise.
Timing & Structure Guide
The 1-Minute-Per-Mark Rule: Spend ~6 minutes on a 6-marker and ~8-9
minutes on 8-marker. Move on if you run out of time!
The PEEL Framework: Structure your paragraphs clearly: Point, Evidence
(insert specific stats/dates/locations 📊), Explanation, Link.
The Golden Rule: The secret to a Grade 9 is specific numbers, nuanced
evaluation, and strong, justified conclusions.
Prediction 1: Atmospheric Hazards / Droughts (6
Marks)
The Predicted Question: Explain why droughts are difficult to manage.
The Cheat Sheet:
Case Study / Context: California, USA vs. Ethiopia
The California drought cost a staggering $2.7 billion and required them to
build a $1 billion desalination plant. 📊
In stark contrast, 22 million people faced acute food insecurity in Ethiopia in
2022. 📊
⚠️ Pitfall: Don't just generically describe what a drought is; you need
specific, hard data.
🧠 Grade 9 Judgment: The smartest way to tackle this is to contrast an
advanced country like the USA with a developing one like Ethiopia to show
how management scales with wealth and technology.
, Grade 9 Model Answer:
Point: Drought is a slow-onset hazard, making its trigger point unclear and its
management extremely costly.
Evidence: For example, the California drought (2011-2017) cost $2.7 billion in
economic losses, prompting the construction of a $1 billion desalination plant in
Carlsbad that only met 7% of San Diego's water needs. 📊
Explanation: This demonstrates that even advanced countries struggle with the
immense capital required to manage water deficits. In contrast, developing
nations face even greater difficulties; in Ethiopia, 80% of the rural population
relies on rain-fed agriculture, and the 2022 drought left 22 million people facing
acute food insecurity. 📊
Link: Therefore, droughts are inherently difficult to manage because their
unpredictable, escalating nature outpaces existing infrastructure, while the
sheer cost of intervention limits response capacity, especially in developing
nations.
Prediction 2: Sustaining Ecosystems / Coral
Reefs (8 Marks)
The Predicted Question: Evaluate strategies used to protect coral reef
ecosystems.
The Cheat Sheet:
Case Study / Context: The Great Barrier Reef
Local management includes marine zones; coral cover in no-take zones is
30% higher than in unprotected areas. 📊
Rising ocean temperatures globally bleached 50% of shallow corals in 2016
and 2022. 📊
⚠️ Pitfall: Avoid "Rainforest Defaultism!" Examiners hate when you panic,
see the word ecosystem, and just start writing about the Amazon.
🧠 Grade 9 Judgment: To secure top marks, you must evaluate global threat
limitations and weigh local protection against unavoidable global warming.
Grade 9 Model Answer:
Point: Local management strategies, such as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs),
offer effective localised protection for coral reefs but are ultimately limited by
global climatic threats.
Evidence: In the Great Barrier Reef, marine zoning restricts fishing and
dredging, leading to coral cover being 30% higher in no-take zones compared to
unprotected areas. 📊
