Chapter 6: Decision-making in public policy - Policy selection
and choice
What is decision making in the public sector?
The third stage of the policy cycle → making authoritative decisions to commit government
resources and prestige to a certain course of action expected to attain some desired end.
- Policy choice = selecting a policy from among whatever options are available and
moving it forward to implement. (it's the most openly political stage of the cycle, there
are clear winners and losers)
- Formal or informal statement → policy is stated either using law passed, legislature,
administrative legislature, speech or policy statement.
Points on decision making
1. Decision making is a result of the previous stages in the cycle, that involved choosing
or selecting alternative policy options in the policy formation.
2. Different kind of decisions → there can be positive or negative decisions
a. positive = they are intended, once implemented, to alter the status quo in
some way
b. negative = the gov declares that it will do nothing new about a public problem
but will remain the status quo.
c. non-decision = no option reaches the decision making stage
d. There are winners and losers in the cycle, even if the decision is a negative
one.
⤷ This approach however says nothing about the actors involved, the desirability,
the likely direction decision making can take or how the public is involved.
The problematics of decision making: An unknown future and risks of failure → why policy
can fail in descision making.
Over and under-reaction
In an ideal world governments policy efforts are perfectly calibrated leading to the minimum
appropriate amount of effort being used to maximize the solution to a policy problem. →
doesn't happen ofcourse. There are however four scenarios for response to problems:
1. proportionate response = Either when a severe problem generated a large response
or a small problem denounces a small expenditure of government resources.
2. Disproportionate = When policy reactions either over or undershoot the severity of
the problem and thus do not adequately match the nature of the problem.
a. over reaction → problems that are thought to be big are not (war on terror)
b. under reaction → problems either creep up to policy makers who are not
aware. or is a result from biases (unequal treatment of races, ethnic groups,
or women in healthcare).
, Uncertainty, ambiguity, ignorance, incompetence
Problems can be classified in terms of how uncertain and ambiguous they are, which relates
to policy decision making. Some problems for example have an unknown future to deal with
making decision making really difficult. → while making sure their efforts are effective.
- Sometimes this is just due to a lack of research and data on a subject.
- Knightian risk and Knightian uncertainty
- Knightian risk = you do not know what will happen, but you do know the
possible odds. (flooding issues in cities, there have been cases before so you
know the odds)
- Knightian uncertainty = You do not just lack the outcome, you also do not
know the odds themselves. (AI in schools for example, its completely new)
Levels of uncertainty try to identify four different levels in this uncertainty concept. (however
there can always be super unpredictable events in any of the levels)
1. Level 1 = shallow of parameter uncertainty → Policy problems are not very difficult
and likely treatment is standard with the response being expected to be effective.
(traffic lights to traffic congestion)
2. Level 2 = Medium or fuzzy uncertainty → problem is more complex and decisions
may produce unexpected results. (tobacco prices go higher and black markets also
thrive better)
3. Level 3 = Deep uncertainty → long run problems with parameters to accumulate and
multiply. (green transport initiatives, applying a number of policy tools while uncertain
about rider behavior, yielding uncertain outcomes)
4. Level 4 = Complete ignorance → worst case scenario, they entail competing
perspectives about the nature and solution of the problem. A bad decision can lead
to the worsening of the problem (climate change)
and choice
What is decision making in the public sector?
The third stage of the policy cycle → making authoritative decisions to commit government
resources and prestige to a certain course of action expected to attain some desired end.
- Policy choice = selecting a policy from among whatever options are available and
moving it forward to implement. (it's the most openly political stage of the cycle, there
are clear winners and losers)
- Formal or informal statement → policy is stated either using law passed, legislature,
administrative legislature, speech or policy statement.
Points on decision making
1. Decision making is a result of the previous stages in the cycle, that involved choosing
or selecting alternative policy options in the policy formation.
2. Different kind of decisions → there can be positive or negative decisions
a. positive = they are intended, once implemented, to alter the status quo in
some way
b. negative = the gov declares that it will do nothing new about a public problem
but will remain the status quo.
c. non-decision = no option reaches the decision making stage
d. There are winners and losers in the cycle, even if the decision is a negative
one.
⤷ This approach however says nothing about the actors involved, the desirability,
the likely direction decision making can take or how the public is involved.
The problematics of decision making: An unknown future and risks of failure → why policy
can fail in descision making.
Over and under-reaction
In an ideal world governments policy efforts are perfectly calibrated leading to the minimum
appropriate amount of effort being used to maximize the solution to a policy problem. →
doesn't happen ofcourse. There are however four scenarios for response to problems:
1. proportionate response = Either when a severe problem generated a large response
or a small problem denounces a small expenditure of government resources.
2. Disproportionate = When policy reactions either over or undershoot the severity of
the problem and thus do not adequately match the nature of the problem.
a. over reaction → problems that are thought to be big are not (war on terror)
b. under reaction → problems either creep up to policy makers who are not
aware. or is a result from biases (unequal treatment of races, ethnic groups,
or women in healthcare).
, Uncertainty, ambiguity, ignorance, incompetence
Problems can be classified in terms of how uncertain and ambiguous they are, which relates
to policy decision making. Some problems for example have an unknown future to deal with
making decision making really difficult. → while making sure their efforts are effective.
- Sometimes this is just due to a lack of research and data on a subject.
- Knightian risk and Knightian uncertainty
- Knightian risk = you do not know what will happen, but you do know the
possible odds. (flooding issues in cities, there have been cases before so you
know the odds)
- Knightian uncertainty = You do not just lack the outcome, you also do not
know the odds themselves. (AI in schools for example, its completely new)
Levels of uncertainty try to identify four different levels in this uncertainty concept. (however
there can always be super unpredictable events in any of the levels)
1. Level 1 = shallow of parameter uncertainty → Policy problems are not very difficult
and likely treatment is standard with the response being expected to be effective.
(traffic lights to traffic congestion)
2. Level 2 = Medium or fuzzy uncertainty → problem is more complex and decisions
may produce unexpected results. (tobacco prices go higher and black markets also
thrive better)
3. Level 3 = Deep uncertainty → long run problems with parameters to accumulate and
multiply. (green transport initiatives, applying a number of policy tools while uncertain
about rider behavior, yielding uncertain outcomes)
4. Level 4 = Complete ignorance → worst case scenario, they entail competing
perspectives about the nature and solution of the problem. A bad decision can lead
to the worsening of the problem (climate change)
