BNAL 610 FINAL EXAM PRACTICE QUESTIONS AND
VERIFIED ANSWERS
A manager is simulating the number of times a machine operator stops a machine to
make adjustments. After careful study the manager found that the number of stops
ranged from one to five per cycle and that each number of stops was equally likely.
Using the random numbers 0.1835 and 0.3094 (in that order), the next two simulated
cycles would respectively have stops for adjustment of: - Answers - 1 and 2
On cold mornings, the probability that David's car won't start is 0.22. When it doesn't
start, he takes the bus and is late for work. When it does start, he drives to work on the
freeway. Sixty-five percent of the time the freeway is clear, and he gets to work on time.
The rest of the time he is late. Simulate 10 consecutive days' of cold morning trips to
work using the random numbers given (use the smaller numbers to represent "car won't
start" and "freeway not clear").
Random numbers:
Car: 0.7772 0.2902 0.8120 0.2259 0.0527 0.2958 0.2891 0.0131 0.5219 0.9949
Freeway: 0.2282 0.3674 0.1654 0.6909 0.7010 0.9802 0.5615 0.5604 0.4361 0.1405
How many times is David late for work because his car won't start? - Answers - 2
You have been asked to simulate the process of "flipping" two identical, unbiased coins.
How many possible outcomes exist for this process? (Hint: Once the coins are flipped it
is impossible to tell which is which.) - Answers - 3
You have determined that waiting times at a toll booth are uniformly distributed over the
interval 20 to 60 seconds. The first random number your simulation returns is 0.4732.
What is the waiting time that this random number generates? - Answers - 38.928
Customers arrive at a carwash on average once every 20 minutes. It seems likely that
customer interarrival times follow an exponential distribution. In a simulation, the
random number 0.1398 is generated. How long will it be until the next simulated arrival
occurs? - Answers - 39.35
Service times at a doctor's office take an average of 40 minutes. It seems likely that
service times follow an exponential distribution. In a simulation, the random number
0.7588 is generated. How long it will be until the next simulated arrival occurs? -
Answers - 11
Which of the following is not a criterion for decision-making?
- EVPI
- Bayers' Decision Rule
- Maximum likelihood
- Maximax
, - Maximin - Answers - EVPI
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The maximax strategy is: - Answers - Buy
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The maximin strategy is: - Answers - Lease
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The maximum likelihood strategy is: - Answers - Lease
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is: - Answers - Lease
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The expected value of perfect information is: - Answers - 12
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should
purchase a small, medium, or large new bus for his company. He estimates that the
annual profits (in $000) will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,
medium, or high, as follows.
VERIFIED ANSWERS
A manager is simulating the number of times a machine operator stops a machine to
make adjustments. After careful study the manager found that the number of stops
ranged from one to five per cycle and that each number of stops was equally likely.
Using the random numbers 0.1835 and 0.3094 (in that order), the next two simulated
cycles would respectively have stops for adjustment of: - Answers - 1 and 2
On cold mornings, the probability that David's car won't start is 0.22. When it doesn't
start, he takes the bus and is late for work. When it does start, he drives to work on the
freeway. Sixty-five percent of the time the freeway is clear, and he gets to work on time.
The rest of the time he is late. Simulate 10 consecutive days' of cold morning trips to
work using the random numbers given (use the smaller numbers to represent "car won't
start" and "freeway not clear").
Random numbers:
Car: 0.7772 0.2902 0.8120 0.2259 0.0527 0.2958 0.2891 0.0131 0.5219 0.9949
Freeway: 0.2282 0.3674 0.1654 0.6909 0.7010 0.9802 0.5615 0.5604 0.4361 0.1405
How many times is David late for work because his car won't start? - Answers - 2
You have been asked to simulate the process of "flipping" two identical, unbiased coins.
How many possible outcomes exist for this process? (Hint: Once the coins are flipped it
is impossible to tell which is which.) - Answers - 3
You have determined that waiting times at a toll booth are uniformly distributed over the
interval 20 to 60 seconds. The first random number your simulation returns is 0.4732.
What is the waiting time that this random number generates? - Answers - 38.928
Customers arrive at a carwash on average once every 20 minutes. It seems likely that
customer interarrival times follow an exponential distribution. In a simulation, the
random number 0.1398 is generated. How long will it be until the next simulated arrival
occurs? - Answers - 39.35
Service times at a doctor's office take an average of 40 minutes. It seems likely that
service times follow an exponential distribution. In a simulation, the random number
0.7588 is generated. How long it will be until the next simulated arrival occurs? -
Answers - 11
Which of the following is not a criterion for decision-making?
- EVPI
- Bayers' Decision Rule
- Maximum likelihood
- Maximax
, - Maximin - Answers - EVPI
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The maximax strategy is: - Answers - Buy
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The maximin strategy is: - Answers - Lease
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The maximum likelihood strategy is: - Answers - Lease
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The Bayes' decision rule strategy is: - Answers - Lease
Based on the following payoff table, answer the following:
Alternative High Low
Buy 90 -10
Rent 70 40
Lease 60 55
Prior Probability 0.4 0.6
The expected value of perfect information is: - Answers - 12
The operations manager for a local bus company wants to decide whether he should
purchase a small, medium, or large new bus for his company. He estimates that the
annual profits (in $000) will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low,
medium, or high, as follows.
