SOLUTIONS GUARANTEE A+
✔✔steps of the decision making process - ✔✔identify possible outcomes
identify sources of action
derfimination of the pay-off function
choose a course of action with some principle
✔✔decision theory - ✔✔used to determine optimal strength where a decision-maker is
faced with several alternatives in uncertainty
✔✔risk control - ✔✔includes risk prevention and risk reduction
✔✔expected value - ✔✔probability X outcome for all then add up and pick the largest
✔✔LaPlace principle - ✔✔average each column and choose the highest
✔✔maximax principle - ✔✔for each column find the maximum payoff for each outcome
then pick the highest number from the few identified
✔✔maximin principle - ✔✔for each column find the minimum payoff for each outcome
then pick the highest number from the few identified.
✔✔maximum likelihood principle - ✔✔first considered is the event with the best
probability of happening. find most likely event and pick the highest value.
✔✔opportunity loss/regret - ✔✔the amount of profit foregone by not adopting the
optimal course of action
✔✔payoff table - ✔✔represents the matrix of the conditional values associated with all
the possible combinations of the acts and events
✔✔mathematical models allow what? - ✔✔more precision than human cognition
✔✔what is the optimists principle of choice? - ✔✔maximax
✔✔if you know the probabilities, you should use what principles? - ✔✔maximum value
expectation
expected value
✔✔if you don't know the probabilities you should use what principles? - ✔✔LaPlace
maximin or minimax
maximax or minimin