Geopolitics: what?
Trending topic at certain moments in time
- February 2022: Invasion of Ukraine
- November 2024: Presidential Elections
Whenever something big happens, the interest in geopolitics spikes.
Definition: very general
- The political relations between countries and groups of countries in the
world, as influenced by their geography; the study of these relations.
Analysis of the relationship between geography, power and politics in the
international system.
- Geography is a very broad topic (not only borders but also natural
resources and economics)
Which geographical features give a nation political power?
- For example: Suez Canal: Egypt can collect taxes from every passing
vessel
This feature is created by humans and grants power
Shorter voyage -> Less fuel -> better route
Situation in Yemen: instable regime (Hooties – Official
Regime) Threatening commercial vessels, so shipping
companies avoid the canal because it’s unsafe. (Bab el
Mandeb straight – easy to target vessels)
Every conflict has a huge impact on business
Influence of these geographical features on nations and non-state actors:
large international corporations, NGO’s, international organisation, rebel
groups,… (everything that is not a state but plays a role at the international
level)
Reasons why Russia decided to raid Ukraine:
Oil – Gas (Black Sea) (geographical feature) - Fossil fuels
Access to the Sea (geographical feature) – Warm Water
Ports
Russian ports freeze during winter time, so they are looking for
different access points through Ukraine
Rare Earth Minerals – East part of Ukraine -> Needed for
laptops, smartphones,… (geographical feature)
Historical reasons
Predicting the future
Africa is becoming more interesting to big economic entities in
the world
Natural resources
Big population -> Many people to buy products
Businesses need to adapt to geopolitics
Lead actors on the world stage:
Lead actors can be:
- People
- Countries
, - International organisations
- Large corporations
Global “superpower”:
- Political + Cultural = soft powers (convince without using violence)
- Military + Economic = hard powers
Always a combination of all these powers
Superpower: countries that influence other countries or have
impact on a global scale
How to measure economic power:
- Percentual share of the global economy
Value of all product and services in a country: GDP (gross
domestic product), also ‘per capita’ for comparison between
different countries
Is GDP always correct? No, PPP: Purchasing Power Parity (koopkracht),
shows in which countries you can buy more with the same amount of
money (which is also an economic indicator)
A combination of GDP and PPP is necessary for an objective
comparison
Prediction: China will keep growing and overtake US, Russia will lose
power due to post-war recovery and restrictions
Having fossil fuels doesn’t necessarily make you powerful
economically, you need political stability to convert this natural
resource into power, also the fossil fuels are becoming less important
in the economic so there is no correlation between both.
Macro-economic stability: steady growth, no inflation, good
employment rate
Levels of infrastructure: no roads, ports or rivers will influence
trade opportunities
Natural resources: fossil fuels, water (farming, agriculture,…),
Conflict Egypt - Ethiopia: Building of the dam (by Ethiopia) to control
the waterflow and generate electricity on the Neil river. Egypt is
scared that their access to the water flow will be reduced and Egypt
needs this access.
Barriers to trade: sanctions, tariffs
Saving rates: budget of the country (big problems in France and
Belgium,…)
High education rates: enough schools, free education,…
Technological advancement: can everybody access internet,
laptops, what knowledge is there – linked to educational
standards
In the future access to AI will also have an impact on the economic
power
Balance of power in international relations:
Definition of the balance of power:
- The distribution of power among states and the policy of matching their
power against the power of the other side to protect themselves.
You can gain power by creating alliances with other countries or by creating
an economical advantage
, - Cold War (1947-1991): two political views caused a divide into two groups
(both groups were competing to be more powerful in the global balance of
power by improving their hard and soft powers) - Bipolar system (US vs.
Soviet Union)
US, Europe: Capitalism – Liberal democracy – Free market
Soviet, China: Communism - Economy and society controlled by the
government
No physical warfare – only psychological
Propaganda
Spionage
Embargoes
Rivalry at sports
Technological competitions (“who will be the first to”)
- After the collapse of the USSR (end of the cold war): US only remaining
superpower: unipolar system (1991) - end of the cold war
- What about now?
All countries will become liberal democracies? (same mindset = no
need for power struggle)
Maybe a multipolar system with US – China and Europe as
superpowers?
Europe
European continent – European Union – Schengen Area – Eurozone
European continent:
- 750 million inhabitants
- 10 million km²
- Separation from Asian continent: Ural mountains
European Union (27):
- 450 million inhabitants
- 4 million km²
- Political – Economic union
- Supranational organisation
The continent is bigger than the union: Part of Western Russia is on
the European continent
Candidate countries and potential candidates:
Candidate countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia,
Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine
Potential candidates: Kosovo
Reasons why these countries aren’t granted access yet:
Political imbalance – non-european values
No full democracy
No freedom of speech, press, religion or gender
In case of Turkey: raid of Cyprus
- EU-member state with the biggest territory = France (because of their
non-continental colonies
- EU-member state with the largest population = Germany
Is the EU a global superpower?
, Yes: They have political power (VETO power UN), economic power
(steady currency), decent army in some countries many cultures
No: Euro is not the international currency (dollar still globally more
accepted), not enough military power in comparison to US and
China, too many politic instances so decisions are too slow to really
prove political power
Schengen Area:
- Goods and people can travel without any customs control – Open border
area
- 29 countries
- Bigger than the European Union
Eurozone:
- Countries that use one common currency = the Euro
- 20 countries
Demography
Total population: 450 million people
Does a large population give a state power?
More people so more military power
More representation in the EU parlement so more political
power
We see a decline of population in 2020 because of COVID
2022: start of conflict Russia-Ukraine -> more immigration to Europe -
> population growth
Currently: more deaths than births because the young generations
doesn’t seem too interested in having many kids.
Blue banana: highly developed densely populated region in
Europe
- Infrastructure, rivers, trade, businesses, transport
networks,…
- Not as important as it used to be: the share of young
people in comparison to older people is decreasing
which means there aren’t enough working people and
the cost of retirement is increasing severely.
HDI: human development index
- Indicator for quality of life (life
expectancy, GDP per capita and
education level)
- Positives of a high HDI:
More migration because of the high
quality of life – more working
people
Better technology development –
innovative businesses and products
US has a LOWER HDI than the EU
does
Physical geography
Surrounded by oceans – except for EuroRussia
Trending topic at certain moments in time
- February 2022: Invasion of Ukraine
- November 2024: Presidential Elections
Whenever something big happens, the interest in geopolitics spikes.
Definition: very general
- The political relations between countries and groups of countries in the
world, as influenced by their geography; the study of these relations.
Analysis of the relationship between geography, power and politics in the
international system.
- Geography is a very broad topic (not only borders but also natural
resources and economics)
Which geographical features give a nation political power?
- For example: Suez Canal: Egypt can collect taxes from every passing
vessel
This feature is created by humans and grants power
Shorter voyage -> Less fuel -> better route
Situation in Yemen: instable regime (Hooties – Official
Regime) Threatening commercial vessels, so shipping
companies avoid the canal because it’s unsafe. (Bab el
Mandeb straight – easy to target vessels)
Every conflict has a huge impact on business
Influence of these geographical features on nations and non-state actors:
large international corporations, NGO’s, international organisation, rebel
groups,… (everything that is not a state but plays a role at the international
level)
Reasons why Russia decided to raid Ukraine:
Oil – Gas (Black Sea) (geographical feature) - Fossil fuels
Access to the Sea (geographical feature) – Warm Water
Ports
Russian ports freeze during winter time, so they are looking for
different access points through Ukraine
Rare Earth Minerals – East part of Ukraine -> Needed for
laptops, smartphones,… (geographical feature)
Historical reasons
Predicting the future
Africa is becoming more interesting to big economic entities in
the world
Natural resources
Big population -> Many people to buy products
Businesses need to adapt to geopolitics
Lead actors on the world stage:
Lead actors can be:
- People
- Countries
, - International organisations
- Large corporations
Global “superpower”:
- Political + Cultural = soft powers (convince without using violence)
- Military + Economic = hard powers
Always a combination of all these powers
Superpower: countries that influence other countries or have
impact on a global scale
How to measure economic power:
- Percentual share of the global economy
Value of all product and services in a country: GDP (gross
domestic product), also ‘per capita’ for comparison between
different countries
Is GDP always correct? No, PPP: Purchasing Power Parity (koopkracht),
shows in which countries you can buy more with the same amount of
money (which is also an economic indicator)
A combination of GDP and PPP is necessary for an objective
comparison
Prediction: China will keep growing and overtake US, Russia will lose
power due to post-war recovery and restrictions
Having fossil fuels doesn’t necessarily make you powerful
economically, you need political stability to convert this natural
resource into power, also the fossil fuels are becoming less important
in the economic so there is no correlation between both.
Macro-economic stability: steady growth, no inflation, good
employment rate
Levels of infrastructure: no roads, ports or rivers will influence
trade opportunities
Natural resources: fossil fuels, water (farming, agriculture,…),
Conflict Egypt - Ethiopia: Building of the dam (by Ethiopia) to control
the waterflow and generate electricity on the Neil river. Egypt is
scared that their access to the water flow will be reduced and Egypt
needs this access.
Barriers to trade: sanctions, tariffs
Saving rates: budget of the country (big problems in France and
Belgium,…)
High education rates: enough schools, free education,…
Technological advancement: can everybody access internet,
laptops, what knowledge is there – linked to educational
standards
In the future access to AI will also have an impact on the economic
power
Balance of power in international relations:
Definition of the balance of power:
- The distribution of power among states and the policy of matching their
power against the power of the other side to protect themselves.
You can gain power by creating alliances with other countries or by creating
an economical advantage
, - Cold War (1947-1991): two political views caused a divide into two groups
(both groups were competing to be more powerful in the global balance of
power by improving their hard and soft powers) - Bipolar system (US vs.
Soviet Union)
US, Europe: Capitalism – Liberal democracy – Free market
Soviet, China: Communism - Economy and society controlled by the
government
No physical warfare – only psychological
Propaganda
Spionage
Embargoes
Rivalry at sports
Technological competitions (“who will be the first to”)
- After the collapse of the USSR (end of the cold war): US only remaining
superpower: unipolar system (1991) - end of the cold war
- What about now?
All countries will become liberal democracies? (same mindset = no
need for power struggle)
Maybe a multipolar system with US – China and Europe as
superpowers?
Europe
European continent – European Union – Schengen Area – Eurozone
European continent:
- 750 million inhabitants
- 10 million km²
- Separation from Asian continent: Ural mountains
European Union (27):
- 450 million inhabitants
- 4 million km²
- Political – Economic union
- Supranational organisation
The continent is bigger than the union: Part of Western Russia is on
the European continent
Candidate countries and potential candidates:
Candidate countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia,
Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine
Potential candidates: Kosovo
Reasons why these countries aren’t granted access yet:
Political imbalance – non-european values
No full democracy
No freedom of speech, press, religion or gender
In case of Turkey: raid of Cyprus
- EU-member state with the biggest territory = France (because of their
non-continental colonies
- EU-member state with the largest population = Germany
Is the EU a global superpower?
, Yes: They have political power (VETO power UN), economic power
(steady currency), decent army in some countries many cultures
No: Euro is not the international currency (dollar still globally more
accepted), not enough military power in comparison to US and
China, too many politic instances so decisions are too slow to really
prove political power
Schengen Area:
- Goods and people can travel without any customs control – Open border
area
- 29 countries
- Bigger than the European Union
Eurozone:
- Countries that use one common currency = the Euro
- 20 countries
Demography
Total population: 450 million people
Does a large population give a state power?
More people so more military power
More representation in the EU parlement so more political
power
We see a decline of population in 2020 because of COVID
2022: start of conflict Russia-Ukraine -> more immigration to Europe -
> population growth
Currently: more deaths than births because the young generations
doesn’t seem too interested in having many kids.
Blue banana: highly developed densely populated region in
Europe
- Infrastructure, rivers, trade, businesses, transport
networks,…
- Not as important as it used to be: the share of young
people in comparison to older people is decreasing
which means there aren’t enough working people and
the cost of retirement is increasing severely.
HDI: human development index
- Indicator for quality of life (life
expectancy, GDP per capita and
education level)
- Positives of a high HDI:
More migration because of the high
quality of life – more working
people
Better technology development –
innovative businesses and products
US has a LOWER HDI than the EU
does
Physical geography
Surrounded by oceans – except for EuroRussia
