THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT TO GLOBAL ECONOMY WITH CERTIFIED SOLUTIONS

THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19 AND ITS IMPACT TO GLOBAL ECONOMY WITH CERTIFIED SOLUTIONS Introduction As the COVID-19 virus spreads globally, economic paralysis and unemployment follow in its wake. But the economic fallout of the pandemic in most emerging and developing economies is likely to be far worse than anything we have seen in China, Europe, or the United States. This is no time to expect them to meet their debt payments, either to private or official creditors. With inadequate health-care systems, limited capacity to deliver fiscal or monetary stimulus, and underdeveloped social-safety nets, the emerging and developing world is on the cusp not only of a humanitarian crisis, but also of the most serious financial crisis since at least the 1930s. Capital has been stampeding out of most of these economies over the past few weeks, and a wave of new sovereign defaults appears inevitable. These are extraordinary times. As the outbreak spreads, more and more lives are disrupted. Though it is challenging, we must recognize the urgency of the moment we are in and do our best to adapt—both to the essential social distancing measures being put in place around the world, and to the personal tumult it is creating in all our lives. The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide, and the necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 present in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. In a baseline scenario--which assumes that the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound—the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 present in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support.