Introduction
Since the dawn of the industrial age, the ability to harness and use different forms of energy
has transformed living conditions for billions of people, enabling them to enjoy a level of
comfort and mobility that is unprecedented in human history, and freed them to perform
increasingly productive tasks. For most of the last 200 years, the steady growth in energy
consumption has been closely tied to rising levels of prosperity and economic opportunity in
much of the world. However, humanity now finds itself confronting an enormous energy
challenge. This challenge has at least two critical dimensions. It has become clear that current
patterns of energy use are environmentally unsustainable. The overwhelming reliance on fossil
fuels, in particular, threatens to alter the Earth’s climate to an extent that could have grave
consequences for the integrity of both natural systems and vital human systems. At the same
time, access to energy continues to divide the ‘haves’ from the ‘have-nots.’ Globally, a large
fraction of the world’s population—more than two billion people by some estimates—still lacks
access to one or several types of basic energy services, including electricity, clean cooking fuel
and an adequate means of transportation.
Of course, the need for a profound transformation of the world’s energy-producing and using
infrastructure has been widely recognized in the mounting concern about global climate
change. Countless reports have been written on the subject of sustainable energy, but few have
approached this specifically from the perspective of a developing country. In nations where a
significant portion of the population still lacks access to basic energy services, the worry about
long-term environmental sustainability is often overshadowed by more immediate concerns
about energy access and affordability.
This report addresses the two-fold energy challenge that confronts developing and emerging
economies — expanding access to energy while simultaneously participating in a global
transition to clean, low-carbon energy systems.
At a macro level, the policy options recommended here will be familiar as similar prescriptions
have been widely advocated in energy policy discussions generally and in the context of a
variety of different country. However, these arguments have often been based on experience
or evidence from wealthier, industrialized countries. To successfully implement a sustainable
energy agenda, it will be essential for developing countries to design and implement policies
that (a) are responsive to their particular needs and constraints and (b) advance the realization
of many goals, including economic, social development, and environmental objectives.
Historic Energy Trends
The energy use of human societies has historically been marked by four broad trends:
Risingconsumption as societies industrialize, gain wealth and shift from traditional
sources of energy (mostly biomass-based fuels such as wood, dung and charcoal) to
commercial forms of energy (primarily fossil fuels).
Steady increases in both the power and efficiency of energy-producing and energy-using
technologies.
De-carbonization and diversification of fuels, especially for the production of electricity,
throughout most of the 20th century.
, A reduction in the quantities of conventional pollutants associated with energy use.
Each of these trends has contributed to the shaping of our current energy situation. All will be
important in determining the nature and magnitude of the sustainability challenge that
humanity confronts in the decades ahead. In particular, much will depend on how the last three
of the four trends described above interact with the first. .In other words, the ability of
developed and developing countries to manage the consequences of rising consumption and
demand for commercial forms of energy seem likely to depend on whether it will be possible to
greatly accelerate progress toward higher efficiency, more de-carbonization, greater fuel
diversity and lower emission of pollutants.
Rising Consumption and the Transition to
Commercial Forms of Energy
Before the industrial revolution, humans relied on natural energy flows and animal and human power
for heat, light and work. Draft animals, wind and water were the only sources of mechanical energy.
The only form of energy conversion(from chemical energy to heat and light)came from burning
various forms of biomass. The per capita use of energy did not exceed 0.5 tons of oil-equivalent (toe)
annually.
Between 1850 and 2005, overall energy production and use grew more than 50-fold—from a global
total of approximately 0.2 billion toe to 11.4 billion toe (IEA, 2007). Most of this occurred in
industrialized societies, which had come to rely heavily on the ready availability of energy. On a per
capita basis, people in these societies now use more than 100 times the quantity of energy that was
used by their ancestors before humans learned to exploit the energy potential of fire (UNDP, 2000, p.
3).
As societies industrialized, they not only began to use more energy, but also began to use energy in
different forms, typically switching—as household incomes rose—from such traditional fuels as wood,
crop residues and dung to such commercial forms of energy (i.e., fuels that can be bought and sold)
as oil, natural gas, propane and electricity. Reliable estimates of the use of traditional waste and
biomass are difficult to obtain, but these fuels are estimated to account for approximately 10 percent
of overall primary energy use. Much of this use is concentrated in the rural areas of developing
countries. More reliable statistics are available for the consumption of commercial energy, which grew
rapidly during the second half of the 20 th century. Most commercial forms of energy are derived from
fossil fuels (notably coal, oil and natural gas) and consumption of them has grown even faster—
increasing roughly 20-fold in the 20 th century alone. Non-renewable, carbon-emitting, fossil fuels now
supply approximately 80 percent of the world’s primary energy needs.
, A projection of the current trends suggests that overall energy use will continue to grow
strongly—doubling or even tripling by 2050. More troubling from a sustainability perspective is
that fossil fuel consumption could grow nearly as strongly as total energy consumption. This
would mean that fossil fuels would continue to dominate the overall supply mix—again
assuming a continuation of current, business-as-usual trends.
Of course, these are the outcomes that a policy agenda that is guided by climate concerns and
other sustainability considerations presumably would seek to change. However, altering the
present trajectory will require governments, businesses and individuals around the world to
join in a concerted effort to accelerate the other historic trends discussed in the next
subsections, particularly the trends toward higher efficiency and lower-carbon energy sources.
Increasing Power and Efficiency
Harnessing oxen increased the power available to human beings by a factor of ten. The
waterwheel increased it by an additional factor of six and the steam engine by another factor of
ten (UNDP, 2000, p. 3). Cumulatively, these innovations increased the power that was available
to humans by a factor of 600. The development of the steam engine—initially powered by coal
—was particularly important. It enabled the provision of energy services to become site-
independent because coal could be transported and stored anywhere. Steam engines fuelled
the factory system and the industrial revolution. Used later in locomotives and ships, these
engines revolutionized transport as well (Grubler, 1998, p. 249). By the beginning of the
20th century, coal provided almost all of the primary energy needs of the industrializing
countries.
Even as technologies like the steam engine vastly increased the power available to humans,
improvements in energy-producing and -using technologies steadily increased the efficiency at
which energy could be converted to different forms and used to deliver goods and services. For
Since the dawn of the industrial age, the ability to harness and use different forms of energy
has transformed living conditions for billions of people, enabling them to enjoy a level of
comfort and mobility that is unprecedented in human history, and freed them to perform
increasingly productive tasks. For most of the last 200 years, the steady growth in energy
consumption has been closely tied to rising levels of prosperity and economic opportunity in
much of the world. However, humanity now finds itself confronting an enormous energy
challenge. This challenge has at least two critical dimensions. It has become clear that current
patterns of energy use are environmentally unsustainable. The overwhelming reliance on fossil
fuels, in particular, threatens to alter the Earth’s climate to an extent that could have grave
consequences for the integrity of both natural systems and vital human systems. At the same
time, access to energy continues to divide the ‘haves’ from the ‘have-nots.’ Globally, a large
fraction of the world’s population—more than two billion people by some estimates—still lacks
access to one or several types of basic energy services, including electricity, clean cooking fuel
and an adequate means of transportation.
Of course, the need for a profound transformation of the world’s energy-producing and using
infrastructure has been widely recognized in the mounting concern about global climate
change. Countless reports have been written on the subject of sustainable energy, but few have
approached this specifically from the perspective of a developing country. In nations where a
significant portion of the population still lacks access to basic energy services, the worry about
long-term environmental sustainability is often overshadowed by more immediate concerns
about energy access and affordability.
This report addresses the two-fold energy challenge that confronts developing and emerging
economies — expanding access to energy while simultaneously participating in a global
transition to clean, low-carbon energy systems.
At a macro level, the policy options recommended here will be familiar as similar prescriptions
have been widely advocated in energy policy discussions generally and in the context of a
variety of different country. However, these arguments have often been based on experience
or evidence from wealthier, industrialized countries. To successfully implement a sustainable
energy agenda, it will be essential for developing countries to design and implement policies
that (a) are responsive to their particular needs and constraints and (b) advance the realization
of many goals, including economic, social development, and environmental objectives.
Historic Energy Trends
The energy use of human societies has historically been marked by four broad trends:
Risingconsumption as societies industrialize, gain wealth and shift from traditional
sources of energy (mostly biomass-based fuels such as wood, dung and charcoal) to
commercial forms of energy (primarily fossil fuels).
Steady increases in both the power and efficiency of energy-producing and energy-using
technologies.
De-carbonization and diversification of fuels, especially for the production of electricity,
throughout most of the 20th century.
, A reduction in the quantities of conventional pollutants associated with energy use.
Each of these trends has contributed to the shaping of our current energy situation. All will be
important in determining the nature and magnitude of the sustainability challenge that
humanity confronts in the decades ahead. In particular, much will depend on how the last three
of the four trends described above interact with the first. .In other words, the ability of
developed and developing countries to manage the consequences of rising consumption and
demand for commercial forms of energy seem likely to depend on whether it will be possible to
greatly accelerate progress toward higher efficiency, more de-carbonization, greater fuel
diversity and lower emission of pollutants.
Rising Consumption and the Transition to
Commercial Forms of Energy
Before the industrial revolution, humans relied on natural energy flows and animal and human power
for heat, light and work. Draft animals, wind and water were the only sources of mechanical energy.
The only form of energy conversion(from chemical energy to heat and light)came from burning
various forms of biomass. The per capita use of energy did not exceed 0.5 tons of oil-equivalent (toe)
annually.
Between 1850 and 2005, overall energy production and use grew more than 50-fold—from a global
total of approximately 0.2 billion toe to 11.4 billion toe (IEA, 2007). Most of this occurred in
industrialized societies, which had come to rely heavily on the ready availability of energy. On a per
capita basis, people in these societies now use more than 100 times the quantity of energy that was
used by their ancestors before humans learned to exploit the energy potential of fire (UNDP, 2000, p.
3).
As societies industrialized, they not only began to use more energy, but also began to use energy in
different forms, typically switching—as household incomes rose—from such traditional fuels as wood,
crop residues and dung to such commercial forms of energy (i.e., fuels that can be bought and sold)
as oil, natural gas, propane and electricity. Reliable estimates of the use of traditional waste and
biomass are difficult to obtain, but these fuels are estimated to account for approximately 10 percent
of overall primary energy use. Much of this use is concentrated in the rural areas of developing
countries. More reliable statistics are available for the consumption of commercial energy, which grew
rapidly during the second half of the 20 th century. Most commercial forms of energy are derived from
fossil fuels (notably coal, oil and natural gas) and consumption of them has grown even faster—
increasing roughly 20-fold in the 20 th century alone. Non-renewable, carbon-emitting, fossil fuels now
supply approximately 80 percent of the world’s primary energy needs.
, A projection of the current trends suggests that overall energy use will continue to grow
strongly—doubling or even tripling by 2050. More troubling from a sustainability perspective is
that fossil fuel consumption could grow nearly as strongly as total energy consumption. This
would mean that fossil fuels would continue to dominate the overall supply mix—again
assuming a continuation of current, business-as-usual trends.
Of course, these are the outcomes that a policy agenda that is guided by climate concerns and
other sustainability considerations presumably would seek to change. However, altering the
present trajectory will require governments, businesses and individuals around the world to
join in a concerted effort to accelerate the other historic trends discussed in the next
subsections, particularly the trends toward higher efficiency and lower-carbon energy sources.
Increasing Power and Efficiency
Harnessing oxen increased the power available to human beings by a factor of ten. The
waterwheel increased it by an additional factor of six and the steam engine by another factor of
ten (UNDP, 2000, p. 3). Cumulatively, these innovations increased the power that was available
to humans by a factor of 600. The development of the steam engine—initially powered by coal
—was particularly important. It enabled the provision of energy services to become site-
independent because coal could be transported and stored anywhere. Steam engines fuelled
the factory system and the industrial revolution. Used later in locomotives and ships, these
engines revolutionized transport as well (Grubler, 1998, p. 249). By the beginning of the
20th century, coal provided almost all of the primary energy needs of the industrializing
countries.
Even as technologies like the steam engine vastly increased the power available to humans,
improvements in energy-producing and -using technologies steadily increased the efficiency at
which energy could be converted to different forms and used to deliver goods and services. For
