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The New Economy Drivers and Disrupters Report
Tracking the Forces Threatening the World’s Hottest Economies
By Tom Orlik, Scott Johnson and Alex Tanzi
October 29, 2019
Twenty years ago, China’s economy was a tenth the size of the United States. In 2019, it is two-
thirds as big. In 2039, on the current trajectory, it will be more than 10% bigger. India will have
leapfrogged Japan and Germany to claim the No. 3 spot in the global rankings. Vietnam will be
closing in on the top 20.
Or not.
Disruptive forces are sweeping the global economy. Populist regimes are throwing out the policy
rulebook. Protectionism is deadening the trade flows that drove China’s rise. Automation and the
digital economy are boosting productivity for some, eroding old sources of advantage for others.
The threat of climate change looms.
The path to prosperity followed by such success stories as Korea and Japan is increasingly hard
to follow.
,From Beijing to Brasilia, getting the right mix of smart investment, skilled workforce, innovation
capacity and effective governance in place is already tough to do. Combating disruptive forces—
which, from protectionism to climate change, threaten an outsize impact on low- and middle-
income economies—adds to the challenge.
The New Economy Drivers and Disrupters Report captures the new forces narrowing the path to
development and upending the pattern of winners and losers in the global economy.
Drivers and Disrupters
How economies are positioned to deal with disruptive forces
Economy circles sized by GDP High income Low- and middle-income
ON BOTH
BETTER
Explore disruptive forces �
U.S.
U.K.ChinaSouth
AfricaJapanBrazilRussiaGermanyIndiaU.S.ChinaU.K.GermanyJapanRussiaBrazilSouthAfricaIn
diaChinaU.K.U.S.GermanyJapanRussiaBrazilSouthAfricaIndiaChinaU.K.U.S.GermanyJapanRu
ssiaIndiaBrazilaSouth AfricaU.S.GermanyU.K.ChinaSouth
,AfricaIndiaBrazilRussiaJapanGermanyU.S.ChinaIndiaU.K.BrazilSouth AfricaRussiaJapan
Drivers255075255075
Note: Economies scaled by GDP 2018
The Report covers 114 economies, accounting for 98% of global gross domestic product.
Drawing on data from official, academic and market sources, we build a series of indexes to
gauge performance on the traditional drivers of development: labor force, investment and
productivity.
Cover of Bloomberg Businessweek
Featured in Bloomberg Businessweek, Nov. 4, 2019. Subscribe now. Find more stories at
Bloomberg New Economy.
Uniquely, we also measure performance on the big disrupters—populism, protectionism,
automation, digitization and climate change—showing which economies are exposed to
heightened risk and which are poised to seize opportunities.
The main finding: Catching up is getting harder to do. Low- and middle-income economies are,
in general, poorly positioned to adapt to coming disruptions. Without an early and ambitious
response forged at a national and international level, the number moving from low- to middle-
income, and then on to high-income status—already limited—could dwindle further.
Take China. On the traditional drivers of development, China outperforms. Rapid modernization
of infrastructure, advances in education, investment in research and development and can-do
, government has delivered four decades of stellar growth. Searching for a development model,
policy makers are now as likely to look East as to the West for an example.
When it comes to some of the changes sweeping the global economy, though, China is less well-
placed. Protectionism threatens to hammer trade flows and slow technology catch-up with global
leaders. Climate change will compound stresses on a long coastline and a population already
threatened with water scarcity. High inequality and limited social mobility pose a medium-term
threat to political stability.
China’s Challenge
Barriers to trade threaten to slow China’s path to prosperity
China
High-income economies average
Low- and middle-income economies average
DisruptErs
Drivers
Demographics
Investment
Productivity
Sign InSubscribe
The New Economy Drivers and Disrupters Report
Tracking the Forces Threatening the World’s Hottest Economies
By Tom Orlik, Scott Johnson and Alex Tanzi
October 29, 2019
Twenty years ago, China’s economy was a tenth the size of the United States. In 2019, it is two-
thirds as big. In 2039, on the current trajectory, it will be more than 10% bigger. India will have
leapfrogged Japan and Germany to claim the No. 3 spot in the global rankings. Vietnam will be
closing in on the top 20.
Or not.
Disruptive forces are sweeping the global economy. Populist regimes are throwing out the policy
rulebook. Protectionism is deadening the trade flows that drove China’s rise. Automation and the
digital economy are boosting productivity for some, eroding old sources of advantage for others.
The threat of climate change looms.
The path to prosperity followed by such success stories as Korea and Japan is increasingly hard
to follow.
,From Beijing to Brasilia, getting the right mix of smart investment, skilled workforce, innovation
capacity and effective governance in place is already tough to do. Combating disruptive forces—
which, from protectionism to climate change, threaten an outsize impact on low- and middle-
income economies—adds to the challenge.
The New Economy Drivers and Disrupters Report captures the new forces narrowing the path to
development and upending the pattern of winners and losers in the global economy.
Drivers and Disrupters
How economies are positioned to deal with disruptive forces
Economy circles sized by GDP High income Low- and middle-income
ON BOTH
BETTER
Explore disruptive forces �
U.S.
U.K.ChinaSouth
AfricaJapanBrazilRussiaGermanyIndiaU.S.ChinaU.K.GermanyJapanRussiaBrazilSouthAfricaIn
diaChinaU.K.U.S.GermanyJapanRussiaBrazilSouthAfricaIndiaChinaU.K.U.S.GermanyJapanRu
ssiaIndiaBrazilaSouth AfricaU.S.GermanyU.K.ChinaSouth
,AfricaIndiaBrazilRussiaJapanGermanyU.S.ChinaIndiaU.K.BrazilSouth AfricaRussiaJapan
Drivers255075255075
Note: Economies scaled by GDP 2018
The Report covers 114 economies, accounting for 98% of global gross domestic product.
Drawing on data from official, academic and market sources, we build a series of indexes to
gauge performance on the traditional drivers of development: labor force, investment and
productivity.
Cover of Bloomberg Businessweek
Featured in Bloomberg Businessweek, Nov. 4, 2019. Subscribe now. Find more stories at
Bloomberg New Economy.
Uniquely, we also measure performance on the big disrupters—populism, protectionism,
automation, digitization and climate change—showing which economies are exposed to
heightened risk and which are poised to seize opportunities.
The main finding: Catching up is getting harder to do. Low- and middle-income economies are,
in general, poorly positioned to adapt to coming disruptions. Without an early and ambitious
response forged at a national and international level, the number moving from low- to middle-
income, and then on to high-income status—already limited—could dwindle further.
Take China. On the traditional drivers of development, China outperforms. Rapid modernization
of infrastructure, advances in education, investment in research and development and can-do
, government has delivered four decades of stellar growth. Searching for a development model,
policy makers are now as likely to look East as to the West for an example.
When it comes to some of the changes sweeping the global economy, though, China is less well-
placed. Protectionism threatens to hammer trade flows and slow technology catch-up with global
leaders. Climate change will compound stresses on a long coastline and a population already
threatened with water scarcity. High inequality and limited social mobility pose a medium-term
threat to political stability.
China’s Challenge
Barriers to trade threaten to slow China’s path to prosperity
China
High-income economies average
Low- and middle-income economies average
DisruptErs
Drivers
Demographics
Investment
Productivity
