Evaluate the view that Party Policies and Manifestos are the
most important factor that determines the outcome of UK
General Elections.
Evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable.
At least every four years, a general election is held in the UK. This is where both the
prime minister and the members of the House of Commons are elected, at the
same time. The term ‘stable’ is used when analysing the outcome of general
elections and implies that they are firmly fixed. This could range from a prime
minister staying in office for many terms, such as Marget Thatcher, or that opinion
polls have shown stability in voting patterns over the years. The term ‘predictable’
could refer to the 15 years of Conservative government or predicting the voting
behaviour. The source highlights different factors to look at when predicting the
outcomes of general elections, such as social class, regions, and family background.
In addition, it also gives a counterargument, one being that opinion polls, ‘are no
longer good indicators of the outcome.’
The source states that one reason for the outcomes of general elections being
predictable is because ‘few seats change hands.’ This means that huge parts of the
country are competition- free zones where a certain political party has a secure seat
in Parliament. For example, 1 in 10 seats haven't swapped parties since 1918.
Furthermore, for 43 years, 11 Labour and 54 Conservative seats haven't changed.
This leads to voters not thinking that their vote will count so people will continue to
vote for the same party. As we look to the more recent elections, there has been an
increase in secure seats, 323 seats last changed hands in 1992 or earlier. There are
certain areas in England, known as party strongholds, that haven’t changed seats in
over 60 years. For example, Labour has held seats in the North East for 63 years.
The source also highlights that social factors, such as ‘an individual’s class’ and
‘family background’ also show that outcomes are stable. An ‘individual’s class’ can
come down to four categories, AB, C1, C2 and DE. These are stable as the higher
classes, such as AB and C1 traditionally vote for the Conservatives. This is because
the Tories have more ties with the upper class. For example, in 1987, the
Conservatives managed to secure a 10% lead over the Labour party in AB. 18 years
later, they still managed 37% whereas the Labour party only got 27%. In addition,
the Labour Party continually wins the lower classes, C2 and DE. This is because they
are affiliated with Trade Unions and protect workers rights. A ‘family’s background’
could suggest ethnicity.
Particularly within the ethnic minorities, the outcome of their votes is stable. BAME
groups have
continuously voted for Labour for their government as they have passed promising
reforms that directly affect ethnic groups, such as the Race and Religion Act in
2006. Finally, the source argues that opinion polls also can be used to ‘accurately
This study source was downloaded by 100000839739811 from CourseHero.com on 04-22-2022 16:02:39 GMT -05:00
https://www.coursehero.com/file/125664297/Evaluate-the-view-that-the-outcomes-of-general-elections-are-stable-and-predictable-docx/
most important factor that determines the outcome of UK
General Elections.
Evaluate the view that the outcomes of general elections are stable and predictable.
At least every four years, a general election is held in the UK. This is where both the
prime minister and the members of the House of Commons are elected, at the
same time. The term ‘stable’ is used when analysing the outcome of general
elections and implies that they are firmly fixed. This could range from a prime
minister staying in office for many terms, such as Marget Thatcher, or that opinion
polls have shown stability in voting patterns over the years. The term ‘predictable’
could refer to the 15 years of Conservative government or predicting the voting
behaviour. The source highlights different factors to look at when predicting the
outcomes of general elections, such as social class, regions, and family background.
In addition, it also gives a counterargument, one being that opinion polls, ‘are no
longer good indicators of the outcome.’
The source states that one reason for the outcomes of general elections being
predictable is because ‘few seats change hands.’ This means that huge parts of the
country are competition- free zones where a certain political party has a secure seat
in Parliament. For example, 1 in 10 seats haven't swapped parties since 1918.
Furthermore, for 43 years, 11 Labour and 54 Conservative seats haven't changed.
This leads to voters not thinking that their vote will count so people will continue to
vote for the same party. As we look to the more recent elections, there has been an
increase in secure seats, 323 seats last changed hands in 1992 or earlier. There are
certain areas in England, known as party strongholds, that haven’t changed seats in
over 60 years. For example, Labour has held seats in the North East for 63 years.
The source also highlights that social factors, such as ‘an individual’s class’ and
‘family background’ also show that outcomes are stable. An ‘individual’s class’ can
come down to four categories, AB, C1, C2 and DE. These are stable as the higher
classes, such as AB and C1 traditionally vote for the Conservatives. This is because
the Tories have more ties with the upper class. For example, in 1987, the
Conservatives managed to secure a 10% lead over the Labour party in AB. 18 years
later, they still managed 37% whereas the Labour party only got 27%. In addition,
the Labour Party continually wins the lower classes, C2 and DE. This is because they
are affiliated with Trade Unions and protect workers rights. A ‘family’s background’
could suggest ethnicity.
Particularly within the ethnic minorities, the outcome of their votes is stable. BAME
groups have
continuously voted for Labour for their government as they have passed promising
reforms that directly affect ethnic groups, such as the Race and Religion Act in
2006. Finally, the source argues that opinion polls also can be used to ‘accurately
This study source was downloaded by 100000839739811 from CourseHero.com on 04-22-2022 16:02:39 GMT -05:00
https://www.coursehero.com/file/125664297/Evaluate-the-view-that-the-outcomes-of-general-elections-are-stable-and-predictable-docx/
