Voting Behaviour and the Media
Case Studies:
1979:
● Called after James Callaghan’s minority Labour government lost a vote of no
confidence.
● The turnout was 76%.
Party Number of Seats Change in Seats % of Popular Vote
Conservative 339 +62 43.9
Labour 269 -50 36.9
Liberal 11 -2 13.8
● Party policies and manifestos: Both Labour and the Conservatives were notable
for their moderation. Both gave high priority to bringing inflation down and
Thatcher’s policy statement gave little indication that she intended to move her
party to the right.
● The election campaign: The Conservatives adopted many techniques of modern
advertising under the guidance of the publicity specialists, Gordon Reece and Tim
Bell. Thatcher took many photo opportunities but still fell behind Callaghan in
opinion polls because of his air of experience. She turned down a televised debate
that would have highlighted the difference between them.
● The wider political context: The real reason for Thatcher’s victory was the
weakness of the Labour government. Callaghan’s government was a minority
administration that survived by constructing deals with smaller parties. Moreover,
he mistimed the election, calling it just after the “winter of discontent”, where the
government’s attempts to impose a 5% pay limit collapsed as a series of strikes,
creating a sense of national paralysis. Callaghan’s failure to control militant trade
unions handed the Conservatives a winning hand.
1997:
● The landslide victory of New Labour removed John Major’s Conservatives from
power and opened the way to 13 years of Labour government.
● The turnout was 71.4%.
, Party Number of Seats Change in Seats % of Popular Vote
Labour 418 +145 43.2
Conservative 165 -178 30.7
Liberal Democrat 46 +28 16.8
● Party policies and manifestos: The “New Labour” project abandoned old-
fashioned policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and the strengthening of
trade union powers. There was an emphasis on strong law and order, reducing the
size of primary school classes and constitutional reform. This showed that Blair was
running a more moderate party that more people could be comfortable voting for.
There was no stark difference between Labour and the Conservatives. They also
won the support of the press, including The Sun and The Times.
● The election campaign: New Labour placed a large emphasis on developing a
professional vote-winning machine and employed many PR experts to handle things
with the media. They systematically targeted marginal seats rather than safe seats.
However, where their share of the vote increased by 12.5% in its target seats but by
13.4% in constituencies that it neglected.
● The wider political context: Labour couldn’t have won without the damage the
Conservatives inflicted on themselves. Turnout was relatively low, meaning that
under 31% of the electorate actually voted for Labour. By 1997 the economy was
recovering from the recession of the early part of the decade, but the electorate
didn’t accredit this to the Conservatives. Instead, they remembered the catastrophe
of “Black Wednesday” in September 1992. The image of Tory incompetence was
confirmed by a series of financial and sexual scandals and continuing divisions over
Britain’s relationship with the European Union.
2010:
● The election saw Blair’s successor, Gordon Brown, removed from office, ending the
New Labour era.
● The turnout was 65.1%.
Party Number of Seats Change of Seats % of Popular Vote
Conservative 306 +96 36.1
Labour 258 -90 29.0
Case Studies:
1979:
● Called after James Callaghan’s minority Labour government lost a vote of no
confidence.
● The turnout was 76%.
Party Number of Seats Change in Seats % of Popular Vote
Conservative 339 +62 43.9
Labour 269 -50 36.9
Liberal 11 -2 13.8
● Party policies and manifestos: Both Labour and the Conservatives were notable
for their moderation. Both gave high priority to bringing inflation down and
Thatcher’s policy statement gave little indication that she intended to move her
party to the right.
● The election campaign: The Conservatives adopted many techniques of modern
advertising under the guidance of the publicity specialists, Gordon Reece and Tim
Bell. Thatcher took many photo opportunities but still fell behind Callaghan in
opinion polls because of his air of experience. She turned down a televised debate
that would have highlighted the difference between them.
● The wider political context: The real reason for Thatcher’s victory was the
weakness of the Labour government. Callaghan’s government was a minority
administration that survived by constructing deals with smaller parties. Moreover,
he mistimed the election, calling it just after the “winter of discontent”, where the
government’s attempts to impose a 5% pay limit collapsed as a series of strikes,
creating a sense of national paralysis. Callaghan’s failure to control militant trade
unions handed the Conservatives a winning hand.
1997:
● The landslide victory of New Labour removed John Major’s Conservatives from
power and opened the way to 13 years of Labour government.
● The turnout was 71.4%.
, Party Number of Seats Change in Seats % of Popular Vote
Labour 418 +145 43.2
Conservative 165 -178 30.7
Liberal Democrat 46 +28 16.8
● Party policies and manifestos: The “New Labour” project abandoned old-
fashioned policies such as nationalisation, tax increases and the strengthening of
trade union powers. There was an emphasis on strong law and order, reducing the
size of primary school classes and constitutional reform. This showed that Blair was
running a more moderate party that more people could be comfortable voting for.
There was no stark difference between Labour and the Conservatives. They also
won the support of the press, including The Sun and The Times.
● The election campaign: New Labour placed a large emphasis on developing a
professional vote-winning machine and employed many PR experts to handle things
with the media. They systematically targeted marginal seats rather than safe seats.
However, where their share of the vote increased by 12.5% in its target seats but by
13.4% in constituencies that it neglected.
● The wider political context: Labour couldn’t have won without the damage the
Conservatives inflicted on themselves. Turnout was relatively low, meaning that
under 31% of the electorate actually voted for Labour. By 1997 the economy was
recovering from the recession of the early part of the decade, but the electorate
didn’t accredit this to the Conservatives. Instead, they remembered the catastrophe
of “Black Wednesday” in September 1992. The image of Tory incompetence was
confirmed by a series of financial and sexual scandals and continuing divisions over
Britain’s relationship with the European Union.
2010:
● The election saw Blair’s successor, Gordon Brown, removed from office, ending the
New Labour era.
● The turnout was 65.1%.
Party Number of Seats Change of Seats % of Popular Vote
Conservative 306 +96 36.1
Labour 258 -90 29.0
