The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Svante E. Cornell
Department of East European Studies
Report no. 46, Department of East European Studies,
Uppsala University, 1999
Contents
Introduction 1
1 History and Roots of the Conflict 3
2 Escalation: 1988-91 12
3 War: 1992-94 29
4 Russia: the Dishonest Broker? 43
5 Turkey: Azerbaijan’s Only Ally 58
6 Iran: In the Pitfalls of History 80
7 The United States: From Neglect to Commitment 95
8 Mediation and The Search for Solutions 115
9 Nagorno-Karabakh in Eurasian Geopolitics 142
10 Conclusions 149
11 Bibliography (Abridged) 153
1
,Figure Error! Unknown switch argument.: Nagorno-Karabakh
, Introduction
S
ince the beginning of 1988, a conflict endures between the South Caucasian nations of
Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed area of Nagorno Karabakh. The conflict has led
to over twenty thousands casualties and almost one and a half million refugees, a refugee
flow which has resulted in a considerable crisis especially in Azerbaijan, with the number
of displaced persons numbering close to one million. Over fourteen percent of the territory of
Azerbaijan is occupied, territories which have been ethnically cleansed in the course of warfare of
their Azeri population by Armenian Forces. The conflict is regarded as an internal conflict by the
major powers and international organizations, and the efforts of the international community to
bring an end to the conflict have been half-hearted at best and exiguous at worst. The conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh clearly possesses an intra-state dimension, that of the struggle for
independence on the part of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, since the
beginning of 1992 the conflict also possesses an inter-state dimension in the sense that it involved
two sovereign states as belligerents: Armenia and Azerbaijan. The existence of three parties to the
conflict, that is the governments of the two sovereign states as well as that of the unrecognized
‘Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh’ is a factor which has made a solution to the conflict all the more
difficult. The conflict has developed into one of the most intractable disputes in the international
arena. By virtue of being the only one among the various Caucasian ethnopolitical conflicts that
involve two internationally recognized states as parties, it is also the conflict of the region that
carries the largest geopolitical significance. Indeed, in the late 1990s, the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict has been instrumental in accelerating the emergence of opposing alignments of states in
and around the Caucasus. Whether by coincidence or by intent, the conflict plays a central role in
the new geopolitics of Eurasia. As such, the unresolved nature of the conflict poses an
increasingly large threat to the regional security of the Caucasus and the wider Middle East.
Despite the importance that it carries, the conflict has received little media or academic coverage
except in specialized regional publications; is largely ignored or in any case poorly understood by
many practitioners, analysts and theoreticians of international politics.
This study aims at a comprehensive analysis of the conflict. At the outset, an attempt is made to
chart briefly the controversial roots of the conflict. In chapter one, the history and roots of the
1
, 2 Report no. 46, Dept. of East European Studies
conflict from earliest times until the late Soviet era; the chapter spans through the uproar of 1905,
the commotion of 1918-21, the Soviet freeze of the 1920s that lasted until the subsequent thaw of
the late 1980s. Chapter two studies in detail the re-appearance of the conflict in 1987-88 and its
escalation; chapter three studies the war that lasted from 1992 to 1994. Chapter four through
seven analyze the policies of the four major regional and international powers whose behavior has
had a significant effect on the development of the conflict; and chapters eight and nine study the
search for solutions and the geopolitical ramifications of the conflict. Finally, chapter ten attempts
to conclude on the prospects of the conflict.
Svante E. Cornell
Department of East European Studies
Report no. 46, Department of East European Studies,
Uppsala University, 1999
Contents
Introduction 1
1 History and Roots of the Conflict 3
2 Escalation: 1988-91 12
3 War: 1992-94 29
4 Russia: the Dishonest Broker? 43
5 Turkey: Azerbaijan’s Only Ally 58
6 Iran: In the Pitfalls of History 80
7 The United States: From Neglect to Commitment 95
8 Mediation and The Search for Solutions 115
9 Nagorno-Karabakh in Eurasian Geopolitics 142
10 Conclusions 149
11 Bibliography (Abridged) 153
1
,Figure Error! Unknown switch argument.: Nagorno-Karabakh
, Introduction
S
ince the beginning of 1988, a conflict endures between the South Caucasian nations of
Azerbaijan and Armenia over the disputed area of Nagorno Karabakh. The conflict has led
to over twenty thousands casualties and almost one and a half million refugees, a refugee
flow which has resulted in a considerable crisis especially in Azerbaijan, with the number
of displaced persons numbering close to one million. Over fourteen percent of the territory of
Azerbaijan is occupied, territories which have been ethnically cleansed in the course of warfare of
their Azeri population by Armenian Forces. The conflict is regarded as an internal conflict by the
major powers and international organizations, and the efforts of the international community to
bring an end to the conflict have been half-hearted at best and exiguous at worst. The conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh clearly possesses an intra-state dimension, that of the struggle for
independence on the part of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, since the
beginning of 1992 the conflict also possesses an inter-state dimension in the sense that it involved
two sovereign states as belligerents: Armenia and Azerbaijan. The existence of three parties to the
conflict, that is the governments of the two sovereign states as well as that of the unrecognized
‘Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh’ is a factor which has made a solution to the conflict all the more
difficult. The conflict has developed into one of the most intractable disputes in the international
arena. By virtue of being the only one among the various Caucasian ethnopolitical conflicts that
involve two internationally recognized states as parties, it is also the conflict of the region that
carries the largest geopolitical significance. Indeed, in the late 1990s, the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict has been instrumental in accelerating the emergence of opposing alignments of states in
and around the Caucasus. Whether by coincidence or by intent, the conflict plays a central role in
the new geopolitics of Eurasia. As such, the unresolved nature of the conflict poses an
increasingly large threat to the regional security of the Caucasus and the wider Middle East.
Despite the importance that it carries, the conflict has received little media or academic coverage
except in specialized regional publications; is largely ignored or in any case poorly understood by
many practitioners, analysts and theoreticians of international politics.
This study aims at a comprehensive analysis of the conflict. At the outset, an attempt is made to
chart briefly the controversial roots of the conflict. In chapter one, the history and roots of the
1
, 2 Report no. 46, Dept. of East European Studies
conflict from earliest times until the late Soviet era; the chapter spans through the uproar of 1905,
the commotion of 1918-21, the Soviet freeze of the 1920s that lasted until the subsequent thaw of
the late 1980s. Chapter two studies in detail the re-appearance of the conflict in 1987-88 and its
escalation; chapter three studies the war that lasted from 1992 to 1994. Chapter four through
seven analyze the policies of the four major regional and international powers whose behavior has
had a significant effect on the development of the conflict; and chapters eight and nine study the
search for solutions and the geopolitical ramifications of the conflict. Finally, chapter ten attempts
to conclude on the prospects of the conflict.
