LESSON NOTES 2HOURS
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
Specific objectives
1. Describe the demographic transition theory
2. Describe the stages of demographic transition
3. List the limitation of demographic transition
4. List the usefulness of the demographic transition theory
INTRODUCTION
Demographic transition emphasizes the strong interrelationships between population structure, fertility,
mortality and migration which lie at heart of formal demography.
The so called theory of demographic transition was first described in the 1920’s added to and rewritten
many times until now there is no single, clear, generally accepted view of precisely what it comprises.
The description began in 1929 by an American demographer known as WARREN THOMPSON.
Further classified descriptions were set out by NOSTEIN (1945) and BLACKER (1947) among others.
There are a series of stages during which a population moves from a situation where both mortality and
fertility rates are high to a position where both mortality and fertility are low. Both before and after the
transition, population growth is very slow, in between, during the transition population growth are very
rapid, essentially because the decline in mortality occurs before the decline in fertility.
The theory is essentially a description of historical process that is thought to be a common experience of
the industrialized nations in the west. The population growth in western countries is observed with a fall
in mortality ahead of fertility.
This population change can be divided into four stages representing the two periods of equilibrium and
two intervening stages of disequilibrium and transition. The whole process is looked at closely related to
stages in economic development of a country.
The theory can be illustrated in the diagram as below
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV
Birth rate
HIGH B& D
MEDIUM B & D
Death rate
LOW B & D
STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
HRI - MEDICAL DEMOGRAPHY Page 1
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
Specific objectives
1. Describe the demographic transition theory
2. Describe the stages of demographic transition
3. List the limitation of demographic transition
4. List the usefulness of the demographic transition theory
INTRODUCTION
Demographic transition emphasizes the strong interrelationships between population structure, fertility,
mortality and migration which lie at heart of formal demography.
The so called theory of demographic transition was first described in the 1920’s added to and rewritten
many times until now there is no single, clear, generally accepted view of precisely what it comprises.
The description began in 1929 by an American demographer known as WARREN THOMPSON.
Further classified descriptions were set out by NOSTEIN (1945) and BLACKER (1947) among others.
There are a series of stages during which a population moves from a situation where both mortality and
fertility rates are high to a position where both mortality and fertility are low. Both before and after the
transition, population growth is very slow, in between, during the transition population growth are very
rapid, essentially because the decline in mortality occurs before the decline in fertility.
The theory is essentially a description of historical process that is thought to be a common experience of
the industrialized nations in the west. The population growth in western countries is observed with a fall
in mortality ahead of fertility.
This population change can be divided into four stages representing the two periods of equilibrium and
two intervening stages of disequilibrium and transition. The whole process is looked at closely related to
stages in economic development of a country.
The theory can be illustrated in the diagram as below
STAGE I STAGE II STAGE III STAGE IV
Birth rate
HIGH B& D
MEDIUM B & D
Death rate
LOW B & D
STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
HRI - MEDICAL DEMOGRAPHY Page 1
