Keywords:
POWER, SOLAR, FORECAST, ERROR, OUTPUT, FORECASTING, DATA, PARAMETER, solar radiation,
Solar Power Plant Output
Digest:
...The high percentage of solar power plants in the power system inevitably leads to significant
increase of power generation output uncertainty, affecting the high-voltage power network....
...The reserve capacities, which are allocated on conventional power plants to cover the active
power imbalance, should be as less as possible to improve economic efficiency of solar power plants
implementation....
...For this reason, solar power plant operation forecasting becomes an urgent issue in power system
and electric energy markets operation....
...The authors present the structure and mathematical description of the model of solar power plant
operation short-term forecasting, which will give the possibility to assess the mean hourly value of
solar power plant generation capacity....
...All the calculations are made for real solar power plant....
...Index terms-renewable energy source, solar power plant, solar power plant output, generation
forecasting, short-term forecasting I. INTRODUCTION The solution of the problem of short-term
forecasting of the output power of a solar power plant requires the use of both physical and
statistical mathematical models, since not all the factors, affecting the generation of solar power
plant, can be accurately described by mathematical expressions....
...The processes occurring in the atmosphere have a decisive influence on the value of the flux
density of solar radiation....
...The output power of a solar power plant using photovoltaic converters directly depends on these
parameters, therefore it is impossible to calculate the forecast of solar power plant output without
calculating the predicted value of the flux density of solar radiation....
...II. THE FOREASTING PROCEDURE An algorithm for calculating the output of a solar power plant, as
well as input data, which are necessary to obtain the forecast, are shown in Fig....
...To assess the change in the flux density of solar radiation as it passes through the Earth's
atmosphere, the clearness index is used, which takes into account the effects of factors, such as the
absorption of solar radiation by ozone, dust, air molecules, water vapor, clouds, as well as reflecting
of the part of the radiation into the outer space....
...To determine the total solar radiation incident on a tilted surface, it is necessary to estimate two
components of the total radiation G : direct radiation Gb and diffused radiation Gd ....
...III. PRACTICAL INVESTIGATION Sakmarskaya solar power plant named after A.A....
...It is by far the largest solar power plant in Russia....
...These data were obtained from a local weather station installed at the solar power plant site....
POWER, SOLAR, FORECAST, ERROR, OUTPUT, FORECASTING, DATA, PARAMETER, solar radiation,
Solar Power Plant Output
Digest:
...The high percentage of solar power plants in the power system inevitably leads to significant
increase of power generation output uncertainty, affecting the high-voltage power network....
...The reserve capacities, which are allocated on conventional power plants to cover the active
power imbalance, should be as less as possible to improve economic efficiency of solar power plants
implementation....
...For this reason, solar power plant operation forecasting becomes an urgent issue in power system
and electric energy markets operation....
...The authors present the structure and mathematical description of the model of solar power plant
operation short-term forecasting, which will give the possibility to assess the mean hourly value of
solar power plant generation capacity....
...All the calculations are made for real solar power plant....
...Index terms-renewable energy source, solar power plant, solar power plant output, generation
forecasting, short-term forecasting I. INTRODUCTION The solution of the problem of short-term
forecasting of the output power of a solar power plant requires the use of both physical and
statistical mathematical models, since not all the factors, affecting the generation of solar power
plant, can be accurately described by mathematical expressions....
...The processes occurring in the atmosphere have a decisive influence on the value of the flux
density of solar radiation....
...The output power of a solar power plant using photovoltaic converters directly depends on these
parameters, therefore it is impossible to calculate the forecast of solar power plant output without
calculating the predicted value of the flux density of solar radiation....
...II. THE FOREASTING PROCEDURE An algorithm for calculating the output of a solar power plant, as
well as input data, which are necessary to obtain the forecast, are shown in Fig....
...To assess the change in the flux density of solar radiation as it passes through the Earth's
atmosphere, the clearness index is used, which takes into account the effects of factors, such as the
absorption of solar radiation by ozone, dust, air molecules, water vapor, clouds, as well as reflecting
of the part of the radiation into the outer space....
...To determine the total solar radiation incident on a tilted surface, it is necessary to estimate two
components of the total radiation G : direct radiation Gb and diffused radiation Gd ....
...III. PRACTICAL INVESTIGATION Sakmarskaya solar power plant named after A.A....
...It is by far the largest solar power plant in Russia....
...These data were obtained from a local weather station installed at the solar power plant site....
