Evolution of radical Islamist militancy in Africa
- In a 2004 article in foreign affairs, career US diplomats Thomas Morrison and Princeton Lyman
warned that Islamist militants might emerge in sub-Saharan African countries with large Muslim
populations
- I thought they were being alarmist. They were right.
- Why have these groups emerged? What explains the timing, agenda...
The War on Terror in Africa
- Even before 9/11, largest and most consequential al qaeda were on african soil
- July 1998 bombings of us embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam
- Wanted to kill Americans
- More Al Qaeda attakcs in Africa during mis 2000s
- AQ in Islamic Maghred (AQIM) launched attacks in Algeria, occupied terrritory in Mali in 2012-23
- In recent al-Shabaab in Somalia, Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS in Libya have risen to the
forefront
- Recruitment often driven by local grievances and threats merged with global ideologies
- As ISIS overshadowed AQ, establishment of Islamic states, BOKO switched to ISIS over AQ
- ISIS AND AQ franchise model, not establishing abroad, local actors inspires by militant message
and set up their own chapters
- Fall of kadafi regime
- If they were warning in 2004: large Muslim population, predisposed to violence? That's
problematic.
o Fuses global ideologies with threats and grievances
o Mozambique...
o Worth asking: does the country have history of violence
o Islamism fuse itself with pre-existing things
o Don't imagine large Muslim population = political violence
AQ Bombinb of US embassies, Nairobi and Dar es-Salaam, july 8th 1998
- Over 200 people were killed, over 5000 injured, only handful were American
- 8/20/1998: US retaliated with cruise missil strikes in Afghanistan and on al-Shifa pharma plant in
Sudan, which manufactured 50% of all local medicines for ppl and animals
- Mistakenly believed to be a factory for chemical weapons
- US invited attacks, east africans suffering
- Fueling esp in Kenya into islamist militant groups
- Upsurge anger towards USA
Mombasa, Kenya 11/29/02
- Bombing of israeli-owend Paradise hotel; AQ tried to shoot down Israeli airliner the same day
- Kenya staging ground for AQ activity
- AQ & AMERICA BOTH AT FAULT!
, Is there a link between state weakness and terrorism?
- Post 9/11: US fears, weak security forces and popular greivances due to poverty could be
breeding ground for terrorism
- 2002: US SST SEC STATE FOR AFROCA: afica ia soft underbelly for global terrorism
AFRICOM: pnetagon africa command
- Us military’s AFRICAN Command established in 2008
- Extension to Europe in us decision-making
- Us wanted regional command based in african country, but ended up in stuttgart germany next
to europe HQ
- They said: we’;; give u money if u host us
o No one wanted them
- Hosting AFRICOM would be dynamite
- Militarizaiton of US diplomacy in Africa, in contrast w Chinese presence
- Consider emergence of AFRICOM: not just emergence of militant islam, africa as site of
competition
- Role of china in africa
Security dilemma and war on terror
- Sec dilemma: fearing potential enemy intentions under conditions of incomplete information
take preventative steps ultimately increase insecurity and make violence more likely
o Sec dilemma: idea that you never have complete info about other side, rival, human
nature: assume the worse
o Assume that they are not planning to attack you
o PREPARE FOR THE WORST!
o Arm yourself to make sure if attack happens u are ready
o They also have incomplete information
o They see you arm yourself, you wouldn’t attack them but they don’t know that
o They also fear worse case scenario
o Then u see them arm themselves then u ramp up ur own then they do their own
o Conflict spiral, starts violence even tho both sides didn’t want to
- Fearing emergence of radical islam, does US take steps that make radicalization more likely
o Has us brought radicalization? Recruitment more likely
▪ Yes that is true, some agree
▪ But how can we understand interplay
Islamic courts in union in Somalia
- After more than a decade of state collapse in 2005-6, islamic courts union seized power in
somalia establ political authority
- Locally, ICU gained a rep for fairness and became popular
- fearing islamist influence, US sponsored 2006-09 ethiopian invasion of somalia to uproot the ICU
- Invasion radicalized Somali population
- ICU called on intl mujahideen to join fighting
- In a 2004 article in foreign affairs, career US diplomats Thomas Morrison and Princeton Lyman
warned that Islamist militants might emerge in sub-Saharan African countries with large Muslim
populations
- I thought they were being alarmist. They were right.
- Why have these groups emerged? What explains the timing, agenda...
The War on Terror in Africa
- Even before 9/11, largest and most consequential al qaeda were on african soil
- July 1998 bombings of us embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam
- Wanted to kill Americans
- More Al Qaeda attakcs in Africa during mis 2000s
- AQ in Islamic Maghred (AQIM) launched attacks in Algeria, occupied terrritory in Mali in 2012-23
- In recent al-Shabaab in Somalia, Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS in Libya have risen to the
forefront
- Recruitment often driven by local grievances and threats merged with global ideologies
- As ISIS overshadowed AQ, establishment of Islamic states, BOKO switched to ISIS over AQ
- ISIS AND AQ franchise model, not establishing abroad, local actors inspires by militant message
and set up their own chapters
- Fall of kadafi regime
- If they were warning in 2004: large Muslim population, predisposed to violence? That's
problematic.
o Fuses global ideologies with threats and grievances
o Mozambique...
o Worth asking: does the country have history of violence
o Islamism fuse itself with pre-existing things
o Don't imagine large Muslim population = political violence
AQ Bombinb of US embassies, Nairobi and Dar es-Salaam, july 8th 1998
- Over 200 people were killed, over 5000 injured, only handful were American
- 8/20/1998: US retaliated with cruise missil strikes in Afghanistan and on al-Shifa pharma plant in
Sudan, which manufactured 50% of all local medicines for ppl and animals
- Mistakenly believed to be a factory for chemical weapons
- US invited attacks, east africans suffering
- Fueling esp in Kenya into islamist militant groups
- Upsurge anger towards USA
Mombasa, Kenya 11/29/02
- Bombing of israeli-owend Paradise hotel; AQ tried to shoot down Israeli airliner the same day
- Kenya staging ground for AQ activity
- AQ & AMERICA BOTH AT FAULT!
, Is there a link between state weakness and terrorism?
- Post 9/11: US fears, weak security forces and popular greivances due to poverty could be
breeding ground for terrorism
- 2002: US SST SEC STATE FOR AFROCA: afica ia soft underbelly for global terrorism
AFRICOM: pnetagon africa command
- Us military’s AFRICAN Command established in 2008
- Extension to Europe in us decision-making
- Us wanted regional command based in african country, but ended up in stuttgart germany next
to europe HQ
- They said: we’;; give u money if u host us
o No one wanted them
- Hosting AFRICOM would be dynamite
- Militarizaiton of US diplomacy in Africa, in contrast w Chinese presence
- Consider emergence of AFRICOM: not just emergence of militant islam, africa as site of
competition
- Role of china in africa
Security dilemma and war on terror
- Sec dilemma: fearing potential enemy intentions under conditions of incomplete information
take preventative steps ultimately increase insecurity and make violence more likely
o Sec dilemma: idea that you never have complete info about other side, rival, human
nature: assume the worse
o Assume that they are not planning to attack you
o PREPARE FOR THE WORST!
o Arm yourself to make sure if attack happens u are ready
o They also have incomplete information
o They see you arm yourself, you wouldn’t attack them but they don’t know that
o They also fear worse case scenario
o Then u see them arm themselves then u ramp up ur own then they do their own
o Conflict spiral, starts violence even tho both sides didn’t want to
- Fearing emergence of radical islam, does US take steps that make radicalization more likely
o Has us brought radicalization? Recruitment more likely
▪ Yes that is true, some agree
▪ But how can we understand interplay
Islamic courts in union in Somalia
- After more than a decade of state collapse in 2005-6, islamic courts union seized power in
somalia establ political authority
- Locally, ICU gained a rep for fairness and became popular
- fearing islamist influence, US sponsored 2006-09 ethiopian invasion of somalia to uproot the ICU
- Invasion radicalized Somali population
- ICU called on intl mujahideen to join fighting
