APPLICATION OF GIS IN ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION
OF COVID-19 PREVALENCE IN FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY
BY
BERNARD CHIRGU BRISTONE
SPS/19/MGI/00011
DECEMBER, 2021.
, CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Viral infections are infectious in nature and usually
constitute a major treat to both health and socioeconomic
of any society (Meoet al., 2020).Twenty three months have passed since Chinese authorities
identified a deadly new coronavirus strain, SARS-CoV-2 (December 31, 2019); Twenty months
since the WHO declared a pandemic (March 11, 2020). During this time, scientific papers on the
2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been numerous, addressing global awareness
(primarily at national levels) and covering a significant range of disciplines including medicine,
mathematics and social sciences. Among these disciplines, this research focuses on the
geographical dimensions of the disease.
This thematic aspect of COVID-19 requires analysis that adopts an interdisciplinary approach,
several studies have been done and achieved fruitful research results which are of great guiding
significance for the prevention and control of the epidemic (Franch-Pardo et al. 2020) Francho-
Pardo et al.(2020) had a comprehensive review by highlighting the importance of health
geography in examining health policy interventions, control, and mapping/tracking through
projection of spatial distribution and prevalence trends. To achieve this, geographic information
systems(GIS) are currently as set of strategic and analytic tools for analyzing the spread and
management strategy to allocate resources for diseases in both developed and developing
countries (Wondim et al. 2017). Hence the spatial distribution and prevalence of Covid19
epidemic spread are therefore a scientific problem to study (Xie et al. 2020). The Covid19
pandemic have a spatial distribution dimension that lead to understanding the distribution
1
,phenomenon geographical and potential mappable, hence the need to include the ability to cross
variables of different kinds to interpret the Covid19 phenomenon, its spatial analysis and
prevalence dimensions, its geographical impact on decision making and everyday life, and
predictive modeling of evolution of the disease (Franch-Pardo et al. 2020)
The COV ID-19 pandemic is full of unknowns, and many of them have a spatial dimension that
lead to understanding the phenomenon as geographical and potentially mapable. Thus from
health science, the research needs include the ability to cross variables of different kinds to
interpret the COVID-19 phenomenon, its spatial analysis and prevalence dimensions, its
geographical impact on decision-making and everyday life, and predictive modeling of the
evolution of the disease. For these reasons, the use of geospatial and statistical tools has become
particularly relevant with the declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
The first case of the virus in Nigeria was announced by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control
(NCDC) on the 28th February,2020 . As at 30th May, 2020 the total global cases of the pandemic
was 5,968,693 confirmed cases with 365,796 deaths, the United States of America recorded
1,749,846 confirmed cases with 102,900 deaths while Nigeria recorded 9855 confirmed cases
and 273 deaths while FCT recorded 631 confirmed cases and 20 deaths attributed to the
pandemic. Factors such as access to quality healthcare, inadequate medical personnel, poor
technology, and high rate of poverty have been attributed to the prediction that Africa will be the
worst impact from the effect of the pandemic WHO (2020). However, fear and anxiety have
been identified as a powerful emotion that can be associated with overwhelming reports of the
COVID-19 pandemic through social, electronic and print media. Considerable anxiety is natural
and promotes preventive and protective behavior. In some health facilities in Nigeria, a lot of
patients have been denied access to healthcare and this has led to several avoidable deaths
2
, recorded during the current pandemic period (Olamide Afolalu et al. 2021). In the light of the
pandemic challenge faced by the world, it was observed that most of the related studies focused
more on the assessment and estimation of the confirmed cases and mortality of the COVID-19
while the documented relevance of geography to disease such as Covid19 (Desjardins, Hohl,
&Delmelle, 2020), social and spatial heterogeneity (Mollalo et al..,2020) has been established.
The spatial distribution and monitoring of the coronavirus pandemic is important to the effective
management of disease response, intervention, and resource allocation to places of utmost need.
Federal capital Territory Abuja is characterized by increase of high mobility due to his function
as Administration Capital of Nigeria, airport and high spatial connectivity Taiwo &Olumoyegun,
2020, (Otuoze, Hunt, &Jefferson, 2021); therefore argue that spatial connectivity which is
define by people interaction within a density space and various land uses can be hypothesized to
be a risk factor to the disease spread. It aligns with the assertions of Guo (2007), that population
density and space connectivity increase the spread and transportation of disease from one place
to another. In another instance, Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2020) has attributed
poverty, overcrowding(as embedded in population density) and certain occupation to be risk
factor to covid19 pandemic.
1.2 Statement of Problem
Globalization, as a compression of time and space, aids the transmission of diseases on a global
scale, facilitating the spread of COVID-19. The world being tremendously witnessing global
trade, movement of people, and the globalization of health ( Youde, 2020). The global
transmission of diseases is one of the dysfunctions or latent functions of globalization, which
offers both opportunities and catastrophes. The world is a global village; hence the health of
individuals is intrinsically linked irrespective of distance, (Hardy et al..2020). Risk has become a
3
OF COVID-19 PREVALENCE IN FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY
BY
BERNARD CHIRGU BRISTONE
SPS/19/MGI/00011
DECEMBER, 2021.
, CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Viral infections are infectious in nature and usually
constitute a major treat to both health and socioeconomic
of any society (Meoet al., 2020).Twenty three months have passed since Chinese authorities
identified a deadly new coronavirus strain, SARS-CoV-2 (December 31, 2019); Twenty months
since the WHO declared a pandemic (March 11, 2020). During this time, scientific papers on the
2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been numerous, addressing global awareness
(primarily at national levels) and covering a significant range of disciplines including medicine,
mathematics and social sciences. Among these disciplines, this research focuses on the
geographical dimensions of the disease.
This thematic aspect of COVID-19 requires analysis that adopts an interdisciplinary approach,
several studies have been done and achieved fruitful research results which are of great guiding
significance for the prevention and control of the epidemic (Franch-Pardo et al. 2020) Francho-
Pardo et al.(2020) had a comprehensive review by highlighting the importance of health
geography in examining health policy interventions, control, and mapping/tracking through
projection of spatial distribution and prevalence trends. To achieve this, geographic information
systems(GIS) are currently as set of strategic and analytic tools for analyzing the spread and
management strategy to allocate resources for diseases in both developed and developing
countries (Wondim et al. 2017). Hence the spatial distribution and prevalence of Covid19
epidemic spread are therefore a scientific problem to study (Xie et al. 2020). The Covid19
pandemic have a spatial distribution dimension that lead to understanding the distribution
1
,phenomenon geographical and potential mappable, hence the need to include the ability to cross
variables of different kinds to interpret the Covid19 phenomenon, its spatial analysis and
prevalence dimensions, its geographical impact on decision making and everyday life, and
predictive modeling of evolution of the disease (Franch-Pardo et al. 2020)
The COV ID-19 pandemic is full of unknowns, and many of them have a spatial dimension that
lead to understanding the phenomenon as geographical and potentially mapable. Thus from
health science, the research needs include the ability to cross variables of different kinds to
interpret the COVID-19 phenomenon, its spatial analysis and prevalence dimensions, its
geographical impact on decision-making and everyday life, and predictive modeling of the
evolution of the disease. For these reasons, the use of geospatial and statistical tools has become
particularly relevant with the declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
The first case of the virus in Nigeria was announced by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control
(NCDC) on the 28th February,2020 . As at 30th May, 2020 the total global cases of the pandemic
was 5,968,693 confirmed cases with 365,796 deaths, the United States of America recorded
1,749,846 confirmed cases with 102,900 deaths while Nigeria recorded 9855 confirmed cases
and 273 deaths while FCT recorded 631 confirmed cases and 20 deaths attributed to the
pandemic. Factors such as access to quality healthcare, inadequate medical personnel, poor
technology, and high rate of poverty have been attributed to the prediction that Africa will be the
worst impact from the effect of the pandemic WHO (2020). However, fear and anxiety have
been identified as a powerful emotion that can be associated with overwhelming reports of the
COVID-19 pandemic through social, electronic and print media. Considerable anxiety is natural
and promotes preventive and protective behavior. In some health facilities in Nigeria, a lot of
patients have been denied access to healthcare and this has led to several avoidable deaths
2
, recorded during the current pandemic period (Olamide Afolalu et al. 2021). In the light of the
pandemic challenge faced by the world, it was observed that most of the related studies focused
more on the assessment and estimation of the confirmed cases and mortality of the COVID-19
while the documented relevance of geography to disease such as Covid19 (Desjardins, Hohl,
&Delmelle, 2020), social and spatial heterogeneity (Mollalo et al..,2020) has been established.
The spatial distribution and monitoring of the coronavirus pandemic is important to the effective
management of disease response, intervention, and resource allocation to places of utmost need.
Federal capital Territory Abuja is characterized by increase of high mobility due to his function
as Administration Capital of Nigeria, airport and high spatial connectivity Taiwo &Olumoyegun,
2020, (Otuoze, Hunt, &Jefferson, 2021); therefore argue that spatial connectivity which is
define by people interaction within a density space and various land uses can be hypothesized to
be a risk factor to the disease spread. It aligns with the assertions of Guo (2007), that population
density and space connectivity increase the spread and transportation of disease from one place
to another. In another instance, Center for Disease Control and Prevention (2020) has attributed
poverty, overcrowding(as embedded in population density) and certain occupation to be risk
factor to covid19 pandemic.
1.2 Statement of Problem
Globalization, as a compression of time and space, aids the transmission of diseases on a global
scale, facilitating the spread of COVID-19. The world being tremendously witnessing global
trade, movement of people, and the globalization of health ( Youde, 2020). The global
transmission of diseases is one of the dysfunctions or latent functions of globalization, which
offers both opportunities and catastrophes. The world is a global village; hence the health of
individuals is intrinsically linked irrespective of distance, (Hardy et al..2020). Risk has become a
3
