Class 8 – Natural resource scarcity and conflict
- Demographic environmental pressures à new security challenges
- Resource scarcity concerns are essen,al to this ‘Malthusian’ debate
o Supply of resources is more scarce so compe,,on will become zero-sum and
lead to conflict
- Neo-Malthusians:
o The popula,on bomb
o The coming anarchy
o Planet of slums
- Concerns about increases scarcity à zero-sum compe,,on à conflict?
- An important issue in this debate: poten,al impact of climate change
Resource scarcity: a catastrophe in wai,ng?
- GRAPHS
o Popula,on growth
§ Lack of resources
o Food price
§ Scarce resource à higher food price
o Urbaniza,on
§ People live with more in smaller areas or ci,es
o Climate change & deser,fica,on
§ CC impacts resources
§ Land is unavailable and unproduc,ve for agricultural use
è not all areas equally at risk
- Changes at the demand side
o Global popula,on growth suggests a rise to around 9.1 billion in 2050
o As a result the demand for key resources will increase significantly
§ Demand for food will rise by 50% by 2030, and for meat by 85% by the
same year
§ A rise in oil demand of 1% a year between now and 2030
§ Global water use will rise by 32% between 2000 and 2025
- Changes at the supply side
o Can the increases in demand be met?
37
- Demographic environmental pressures à new security challenges
- Resource scarcity concerns are essen,al to this ‘Malthusian’ debate
o Supply of resources is more scarce so compe,,on will become zero-sum and
lead to conflict
- Neo-Malthusians:
o The popula,on bomb
o The coming anarchy
o Planet of slums
- Concerns about increases scarcity à zero-sum compe,,on à conflict?
- An important issue in this debate: poten,al impact of climate change
Resource scarcity: a catastrophe in wai,ng?
- GRAPHS
o Popula,on growth
§ Lack of resources
o Food price
§ Scarce resource à higher food price
o Urbaniza,on
§ People live with more in smaller areas or ci,es
o Climate change & deser,fica,on
§ CC impacts resources
§ Land is unavailable and unproduc,ve for agricultural use
è not all areas equally at risk
- Changes at the demand side
o Global popula,on growth suggests a rise to around 9.1 billion in 2050
o As a result the demand for key resources will increase significantly
§ Demand for food will rise by 50% by 2030, and for meat by 85% by the
same year
§ A rise in oil demand of 1% a year between now and 2030
§ Global water use will rise by 32% between 2000 and 2025
- Changes at the supply side
o Can the increases in demand be met?
37
