Climate Crisis
Lecture 1: Introduction and the cultural theory of risk
Why talk about a climate crisis?
What is a crisis?
- Crisis:
o Fundamental goals and values are threatened
o A finite response time exists to stop the further disintegration of the system
o The system is complex: there is uncertainty about causes and solutions
Are fundamental goals and values threatened?
- Temperatures are rising
Reasons for concern:
- With increasing temperatures, the risk increases
,Climate change threats:
Health: heat stress, diseases (malaria)
Agriculture: loss of crop yields
Nature and biodiversity: ecosystem losses
Fisheries: acidification of oceans
Water use: droughts
Coastal zones: sea level rise, land loss
Hurricanes: damage to property
Migration, geo-political instability
Fundamental goals and values are threatened:
- Climate change threatens all Sustainable Development Goals
Biodiversity is threatened:
- Combination of climate change, land-/sea-use change, overexploitation of resources,
pollution and invasive alien species are likely to exacerbate the negative impacts on
nature, as seen in different ecosystems including coral reefs, the Arctic systems, and
savannas
,Response time is finite:
- IPCC states that we need to reduce CO2 emissions to zero to stay below the global
warming of 1,5°C above pre-industrial levels
- Response time is short
Tackling climate change is complex:
- Causes and effects dispersed both in space and time
- Fragmentation of agency: 7 billion people involved
- Institutional inadequacy: no global government
Can science identify a crisis?
- Literally: no
- Science can only establish facts and cause-effect relationships
, - Science cannot make value judgments of situations
- Science cannot assess whether the loss of nature or human life is good or bad
Cultural theory of risk
Kinds of risk:
- Probabilities are unknown for uncertain risk and indeterminate risk
Why are uncertainty and indeterminacy problematic?
- Rational choice maximizes expected outcome
- Expected outcome of betting €100 on 5 at roulette: 1/37 x €3600 + 36/37 x €0 = €97
- Expected outcome of not betting €100 on 5 at roulette: €100
- Rational choice: do not play at casino!
- Such rational choice only possible in case of known probabilities
Uncertain and indeterminate risks:
- Science sharpens our view, but somewhere the epistemic mist starts (cannot know all
probabilities)
Lecture 1: Introduction and the cultural theory of risk
Why talk about a climate crisis?
What is a crisis?
- Crisis:
o Fundamental goals and values are threatened
o A finite response time exists to stop the further disintegration of the system
o The system is complex: there is uncertainty about causes and solutions
Are fundamental goals and values threatened?
- Temperatures are rising
Reasons for concern:
- With increasing temperatures, the risk increases
,Climate change threats:
Health: heat stress, diseases (malaria)
Agriculture: loss of crop yields
Nature and biodiversity: ecosystem losses
Fisheries: acidification of oceans
Water use: droughts
Coastal zones: sea level rise, land loss
Hurricanes: damage to property
Migration, geo-political instability
Fundamental goals and values are threatened:
- Climate change threatens all Sustainable Development Goals
Biodiversity is threatened:
- Combination of climate change, land-/sea-use change, overexploitation of resources,
pollution and invasive alien species are likely to exacerbate the negative impacts on
nature, as seen in different ecosystems including coral reefs, the Arctic systems, and
savannas
,Response time is finite:
- IPCC states that we need to reduce CO2 emissions to zero to stay below the global
warming of 1,5°C above pre-industrial levels
- Response time is short
Tackling climate change is complex:
- Causes and effects dispersed both in space and time
- Fragmentation of agency: 7 billion people involved
- Institutional inadequacy: no global government
Can science identify a crisis?
- Literally: no
- Science can only establish facts and cause-effect relationships
, - Science cannot make value judgments of situations
- Science cannot assess whether the loss of nature or human life is good or bad
Cultural theory of risk
Kinds of risk:
- Probabilities are unknown for uncertain risk and indeterminate risk
Why are uncertainty and indeterminacy problematic?
- Rational choice maximizes expected outcome
- Expected outcome of betting €100 on 5 at roulette: 1/37 x €3600 + 36/37 x €0 = €97
- Expected outcome of not betting €100 on 5 at roulette: €100
- Rational choice: do not play at casino!
- Such rational choice only possible in case of known probabilities
Uncertain and indeterminate risks:
- Science sharpens our view, but somewhere the epistemic mist starts (cannot know all
probabilities)
