How much influence does the ‘invisible primary’ really have?
- Election day is the Tuesday following the first Monday in November
Invisible primary → primaries + caucuses → national party conventions → GE campaign → election
- 22nd amendment prevents an individual from being elected as president more than twice
- Extra-constitutional qualifications for presidential candidacy:
- Political experience: most nominees in recent decades have already been governors,
senators, VPs; need national name recognition
- Democratic/Republican endorsement
- Personal characteristics: previously being white, male, and married seemed a
prerequisite but Obama’s election suggests this isn’t the case anymore
- Money + fundraising skills
- National organisation: until a candidate becomes either party’s nominee they must
rely on their own campaign teams so need to hire enough volunteers to help them
campaign effectively in each state
- Being charismatic, ‘telegenic’, + media savvy
- Policies
Factors determining who wins the nomination:
- Endorsements: the person who gets the most support from the Republican party
establishment tends to win the nomination but this is less definite for Democratic candidates
- Many voters will trust the judgement of elected reps/officials who might have worked
with the various candidates
- Endorsements from high profile individuals can generate significant media attention
which helps candidates to improve their name recognition
- Not always an indicator: Trump didn’t get any endorsements from Republican
governors, senators, or reps until weeks after the first caucus but he used this to his
advantage by presenting himself as an anti-establishment candidate
- Fundraising: funds are needed for a good campaign infrastructure but donations can also
send a message to voters about which candidates are most electable; the more money a
candidate raises the stronger their campaign looks
- The need to fundraise has meant the invisible primary begins increasingly earlier:
candidates used to declare a few months before the first primary, now closer to a year
- Trump was outspent by several of his rivals but b/c he was a successful businessman
he was less reliant on donations as he could donate to his own campaign + he
already had nationwide name recognition b/c he was a TV star
- Opinion polls/name recognition: candidates can improve their recognition/polling position
through TV debates (often leads candidates to focus on impressive soundbites rather than
discussion of policy)
- The media focuses largely on the candidates leading in the polls + outsiders will
struggle to rise up the polls w/o media coverage so relatively unknown candidates are
unlikely to have much success
- Low polling figures often lead candidates to drop out before the first primaries
, How do primaries and caucuses actually work?
- Since the 1830s the parties have chosen their candidates through a ‘National Convention’
District Party Caucus chose delegates to attend the State Party Convention → SPC chose delegates
to attend the National Party Convention → NPC voted to choose the candidate
- Choice of delegates tended to be dominated by state party bosses: delegates were often
chosen up to a year before the presidential candidates were known
- 1910: Oregon established a ‘presidential preference primary’ election where voters chose
who they wanted to be the eventual presidential candidate; delegates were then expected to
bear the result in mind when they attended the conventions
- Other states allowed voters to choose delegates rather than a candidate but voters couldn’t
be certain the chosen delegates would vote in the way they wanted them to
- Most primaries were non-binding ‘preference votes’ so sometimes candidates with
clear support from state primaries weren’t chosen as the nominee
- By the 1930s many states had abandoned primaries to return to closed party meetings
- Participation had been low
- Costs were high
- Candidates often ignored them
- 1968 Democratic National Convention: Senator Eugene McCarthy almost defeated Pres.
Lyndon Johnson at the New Hampshire primary; Senator Robert Kennedy then entered the
race
- Between them they won over ⅔ of primary votes
- After winning the California primary Kennedy was assassinated
- This logically should have meant McCarthy was chosen as the nominee but most
primaries at this point were still ‘beauty contests’ meaning most delegates were
chosen at caucuses + state conventions
- The party establishment instead support current VP Hubert Humphrey
- For many Democrats this highlighted how undemocratic the system was
- McGovern-Fraser Commission: Democrats appointed Senator George McGovern +
Representative Donald fraser to lead a commission on reforming the nomination
process; state Democratic parties began to make changes as a result:
- Replaced caucuses w/ primaries
- Replaced advisory ‘beauty contest’ votes w/ awarding delegates in proportion
to the vote (i.e. if a candidate gets x% of the vote, they get x% of delegates)
- Replaced ‘unbound delegates’ (could disregard the popular vote) w/ ‘pledged
delegates’ (had to pledge to support the specific candidate)
- Some states changed the law to require Republicans to make similar changes; in some states
Republicans made changes b/c they wanted to/felt pressured to; some state Republican
parties made no changes
- In 1960 16 states held primaries; in 1980 35 states did; in 2016 41 states did
- Presidential primaries are funded by the state + run under state law
- Voters may have to select a presidential candidate on the ballot paper but they are
actually electing delegates to vote on their behalf
- Caucuses: people attend a ‘precinct’ caucus meeting; supporters make a case for their
candidate to attempt to convince undecided voters + persuade others to change their minds
(e.g. through speeches)
- Votes are cast for a presidential candidate + delegates are selected to represent the
precinct’s voters at a county convention (which then chooses delegates for the district
convention, which chooses delegates for the state convention, which then chooses
delegates for the National Party Convention where the candidate is officially
nominated)
, Republican caucus process:
- Voters cast secret ballot to indicate preferred candidate + results are reported to the media
- Voters can then leave or stay to vote on other business e.g. selecting delegates for county
conventions
- 2016: Party adopted a new rule binding national delegates to the result of the initial statewide
presidential preference vote
Democrat caucus process:
- No secret ballot, they ‘vote with their feet’: gather in preference groups in separate parts of
the room; any candidate w/ <15% support is eliminated + supporters can move to join other
groups
- When all candidates are viable the final numbers are tallied + delegates are proportionally
chosen to represent the voters at county conventions
- The media isn’t informed on how many votes each candidate got, only how many delegates
they’re likely to end up w/ based on the number of county delegates
Rules on caucus participation:
- Open primary/caucus = any registered voter can participate
- Allow for greater participation
- Party crashing/crossover voting: voters of one party vote in a rival party’s
primary/caucus + in order to support a controversial/divisive candidate that’s easier to
beat e.g. ‘Operation Chaos’ in 2008: some Republicans supported Hillary Clinton in
open primaries b/c they believed she could be more easily defeated than Obama
- Closed primary/caucus = only registered party members can participate
- Modified primary/caucus = registered party members + registered independents can
participate
How the Democrats award delegates:
- Proportional
- Democratic National Committee requires state parties to proportionally allocate delegates to
candidates who receive 15+% of the vote in a primary/caucus
- Depending on the state delegates can be awarded based on the statewide vote and/or the
result in each congressional district
How the Republicans award delegates:
- Proportional/winner-takes-all/hybrid
- State have more freedom over how they award delegates
- 2016: party rules required any states holding their primary/caucus before March 15th to
distribute delegates proportionally (but could still set their own threshold unlike under
Democratic rules)
- Some states choose not to have a threshold
- 2016: state parties holding their contests after March 15th generally used a winner-takes-all
or hybrid system
- E.g. Florida awarded all 99 of its delegates to Trump who received 46% of the vote
- Election day is the Tuesday following the first Monday in November
Invisible primary → primaries + caucuses → national party conventions → GE campaign → election
- 22nd amendment prevents an individual from being elected as president more than twice
- Extra-constitutional qualifications for presidential candidacy:
- Political experience: most nominees in recent decades have already been governors,
senators, VPs; need national name recognition
- Democratic/Republican endorsement
- Personal characteristics: previously being white, male, and married seemed a
prerequisite but Obama’s election suggests this isn’t the case anymore
- Money + fundraising skills
- National organisation: until a candidate becomes either party’s nominee they must
rely on their own campaign teams so need to hire enough volunteers to help them
campaign effectively in each state
- Being charismatic, ‘telegenic’, + media savvy
- Policies
Factors determining who wins the nomination:
- Endorsements: the person who gets the most support from the Republican party
establishment tends to win the nomination but this is less definite for Democratic candidates
- Many voters will trust the judgement of elected reps/officials who might have worked
with the various candidates
- Endorsements from high profile individuals can generate significant media attention
which helps candidates to improve their name recognition
- Not always an indicator: Trump didn’t get any endorsements from Republican
governors, senators, or reps until weeks after the first caucus but he used this to his
advantage by presenting himself as an anti-establishment candidate
- Fundraising: funds are needed for a good campaign infrastructure but donations can also
send a message to voters about which candidates are most electable; the more money a
candidate raises the stronger their campaign looks
- The need to fundraise has meant the invisible primary begins increasingly earlier:
candidates used to declare a few months before the first primary, now closer to a year
- Trump was outspent by several of his rivals but b/c he was a successful businessman
he was less reliant on donations as he could donate to his own campaign + he
already had nationwide name recognition b/c he was a TV star
- Opinion polls/name recognition: candidates can improve their recognition/polling position
through TV debates (often leads candidates to focus on impressive soundbites rather than
discussion of policy)
- The media focuses largely on the candidates leading in the polls + outsiders will
struggle to rise up the polls w/o media coverage so relatively unknown candidates are
unlikely to have much success
- Low polling figures often lead candidates to drop out before the first primaries
, How do primaries and caucuses actually work?
- Since the 1830s the parties have chosen their candidates through a ‘National Convention’
District Party Caucus chose delegates to attend the State Party Convention → SPC chose delegates
to attend the National Party Convention → NPC voted to choose the candidate
- Choice of delegates tended to be dominated by state party bosses: delegates were often
chosen up to a year before the presidential candidates were known
- 1910: Oregon established a ‘presidential preference primary’ election where voters chose
who they wanted to be the eventual presidential candidate; delegates were then expected to
bear the result in mind when they attended the conventions
- Other states allowed voters to choose delegates rather than a candidate but voters couldn’t
be certain the chosen delegates would vote in the way they wanted them to
- Most primaries were non-binding ‘preference votes’ so sometimes candidates with
clear support from state primaries weren’t chosen as the nominee
- By the 1930s many states had abandoned primaries to return to closed party meetings
- Participation had been low
- Costs were high
- Candidates often ignored them
- 1968 Democratic National Convention: Senator Eugene McCarthy almost defeated Pres.
Lyndon Johnson at the New Hampshire primary; Senator Robert Kennedy then entered the
race
- Between them they won over ⅔ of primary votes
- After winning the California primary Kennedy was assassinated
- This logically should have meant McCarthy was chosen as the nominee but most
primaries at this point were still ‘beauty contests’ meaning most delegates were
chosen at caucuses + state conventions
- The party establishment instead support current VP Hubert Humphrey
- For many Democrats this highlighted how undemocratic the system was
- McGovern-Fraser Commission: Democrats appointed Senator George McGovern +
Representative Donald fraser to lead a commission on reforming the nomination
process; state Democratic parties began to make changes as a result:
- Replaced caucuses w/ primaries
- Replaced advisory ‘beauty contest’ votes w/ awarding delegates in proportion
to the vote (i.e. if a candidate gets x% of the vote, they get x% of delegates)
- Replaced ‘unbound delegates’ (could disregard the popular vote) w/ ‘pledged
delegates’ (had to pledge to support the specific candidate)
- Some states changed the law to require Republicans to make similar changes; in some states
Republicans made changes b/c they wanted to/felt pressured to; some state Republican
parties made no changes
- In 1960 16 states held primaries; in 1980 35 states did; in 2016 41 states did
- Presidential primaries are funded by the state + run under state law
- Voters may have to select a presidential candidate on the ballot paper but they are
actually electing delegates to vote on their behalf
- Caucuses: people attend a ‘precinct’ caucus meeting; supporters make a case for their
candidate to attempt to convince undecided voters + persuade others to change their minds
(e.g. through speeches)
- Votes are cast for a presidential candidate + delegates are selected to represent the
precinct’s voters at a county convention (which then chooses delegates for the district
convention, which chooses delegates for the state convention, which then chooses
delegates for the National Party Convention where the candidate is officially
nominated)
, Republican caucus process:
- Voters cast secret ballot to indicate preferred candidate + results are reported to the media
- Voters can then leave or stay to vote on other business e.g. selecting delegates for county
conventions
- 2016: Party adopted a new rule binding national delegates to the result of the initial statewide
presidential preference vote
Democrat caucus process:
- No secret ballot, they ‘vote with their feet’: gather in preference groups in separate parts of
the room; any candidate w/ <15% support is eliminated + supporters can move to join other
groups
- When all candidates are viable the final numbers are tallied + delegates are proportionally
chosen to represent the voters at county conventions
- The media isn’t informed on how many votes each candidate got, only how many delegates
they’re likely to end up w/ based on the number of county delegates
Rules on caucus participation:
- Open primary/caucus = any registered voter can participate
- Allow for greater participation
- Party crashing/crossover voting: voters of one party vote in a rival party’s
primary/caucus + in order to support a controversial/divisive candidate that’s easier to
beat e.g. ‘Operation Chaos’ in 2008: some Republicans supported Hillary Clinton in
open primaries b/c they believed she could be more easily defeated than Obama
- Closed primary/caucus = only registered party members can participate
- Modified primary/caucus = registered party members + registered independents can
participate
How the Democrats award delegates:
- Proportional
- Democratic National Committee requires state parties to proportionally allocate delegates to
candidates who receive 15+% of the vote in a primary/caucus
- Depending on the state delegates can be awarded based on the statewide vote and/or the
result in each congressional district
How the Republicans award delegates:
- Proportional/winner-takes-all/hybrid
- State have more freedom over how they award delegates
- 2016: party rules required any states holding their primary/caucus before March 15th to
distribute delegates proportionally (but could still set their own threshold unlike under
Democratic rules)
- Some states choose not to have a threshold
- 2016: state parties holding their contests after March 15th generally used a winner-takes-all
or hybrid system
- E.g. Florida awarded all 99 of its delegates to Trump who received 46% of the vote
