,Chapter 1
The End of Business as Usual
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!
— Niels Bohr
RECOMMENDED LISTENING
Kind of Blue, Miles Davis
Due to the fact that it is melancholic, romantic, cool, but still remarkably inspiring for forward
thinking.
RECOMMENDED VIEWING
Wall‐E by Disney
Because it shows the future of our world if IND4.0 and the circular economy are not combined.
1.1 The Trillion‐Dollar Question
1.2 The Future Is Warmer, Urbanized, Polluted and Resource‐Hungry
1.3 It Can't Happen Again
1.4 It's About People, Not Waste
1.5 About This Book
1.1 THE TRILLION‐DOLLAR QUESTION
This is a book about circular economy (CE) and the fourth industrial revolution (IND 4.0) and
about their interlinkage and the way their interaction will determine the future of our planet, as the
authors of this book assert. Despite the many ongoing discussions on both the circular economy
and IND 4.0, rarely is it recognized that they are deeply interconnected, and in real life they cannot
be discussed separately, and should not be considered to be mutually exclusive.
In spite of the widespread discussion and countless policy initiatives regarding circular economy,
it is usually ignored the fact that IND 4.0 provides the technological, economic, and social
framework in which a circular economy will flourish or fail. As an example, a well‐referenced
report [1] estimated that the implementation of the circular economy in the European Union (EU)
will create 1.2–3 million additional jobs by 2030. However, the report seems to ignore that the
essential works required in preparation for reuse, repair, and disassembly either will be automated
and robotized or will not become economically viable. In the era of IND4.0, the circular economy
will either be digitized, automated, and augmented, or it will not prevail at all.
,On the other hand, discourse around IND 4.0 usually focuses on the advances relevant to resource
and labor productivity, the radical changes to business models, and the social challenges involved.
It is rarely discussed that IND4.0, unless it diverts from the “business as usual” linear approach,
will also stimulate and accelerate resource depletion and pollution in an era in which Earth is fast
approaching, or has already surpassed, some of its planetary limits. IND4.0 will either meet the
circular economy or accelerate environmental deterioration and potential collapse of ecosystems
and human societies. This will be covered in more detail in Chapter 2.
IND4.0 and the circular economy represent challenges that are valued, quite literally, in the many
trillions of dollars. One of the key aspects that should be considered is that a shift to a circular
economy might be the only possible means of sustaining economic growth in the long term through
a serious rearrangement of the economic inputs and outputs in all the industrial supply chains. An
online analysis [2] of the economic benefits of circular economy reveals that in the EU the annual
material cost savings are estimated up to $630 billion, and that is only for the sectors of complex
medium‐lived products such as mobile phones and washing machines. For fast consumption
products such as those for household cleaning, the expected material cost savings are estimated at
$700 billion/year. Accenture [3] has assessed that the shift to a circular economy has the potential
to create an additional $4.5 trillion economic output by 2030, if circular business models are
rapidly adopted. In addition, such a shift can contribute to closing the eight billion‐tonne material
gap between supply and demand that is expected in 2030. In the long term, an additional $25
trillion economic output is forecast by 2050. These economic benefits do not include the
monetization of the expected environmental benefits such as the reduction of carbon dioxide
emissions; the gradual decline in consumption of primary materials, which can reach to 32% within
the next 10 years; and the benefits from the reduction of land degradation that already costs more
than $40 billion annually. McKinsey has calculated [4] that for the EU an additional $1.3 trillion
of benefits annually is expected in non‐resource and externality costs.
Moving to IND4.0, for the period 2015–2025, the World Economic Forum assessed [5] the
economic and social benefits of the digital transformation to almost $100 trillion through digital
consumption, digital enterprise, societal implications, and platform governance. By 2025, the
digital economy will have a share of 24.3% of the global economy and a value of $23 trillion,
compared with 15.5% and $11.5 trillion in 2016, according to a report prepared by Oxford
Economics [6], providing extra income of $500/year for the average worker. The same report
assessed that the digital economy is growing 2.5 times faster than the global economy and that, on
average over the past three decades, a US $1 investment in digital technologies has led to a US
$20 rise in gross domestic product (GDP).
Since both the circular economy and IND4.0 represent trillions of dollars in opportunities, this
book poses the trillion‐dollar question: will IND 4.0 and the circular economy converge, hence
delivering not only better resource efficiency but a more sustainable future for everyone on the
planet? Or will IND4.0 evolve according to the business as usual linear model, leaving the circular
economy a mere flight of fancy, resulting in faster resource depletion, acceleration of
environmental degradation, and deeper inequality? The authors of this book believe that any
answer to the trillion‐dollar question involves the transformation of the waste management sector.
However, before delving deeper into this discussion, it is beneficial to outline the planetary
, framework in which the circular economy and IND4.0 are discussed. A warmer, continuously
urbanized, and more resource‐demanding planet sets the scene from which our future will evolve.
1.2 THE FUTURE IS WARMER, URBANIZED,
POLLUTED, AND RESOURCE‐HUNGRY
It has always been difficult to predict the future, but in a world that is becoming continuously more
interconnected and complex, discontinuity and abrupt change become the rule and not the
exception, as the 2008–2013 financial crisis proved. Still, there are some basic trends that will
continue to shape our planet for the next 20–30 years.
The first trend is global warming. Although there are some differing opinions, there is a very strong
consensus about the roots of the problem and the way to deal with it. About 97% of the studies
published by climate scientists agree that global warming is extremely likely to be linked to human
activities [7]. Almost all of the major scientific organizations worldwide [8] endorse such a view.
Regarding extreme weather phenomena, between 2015 and 2018, more than 100 papers have been
published on this subject, and 75% of them concluded [9] that extreme weather is related to global
warming. In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned [10]
that only a dozen years are available to keep global warming to a maximum of 1.5 °C, beyond
which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat, and
poverty for hundreds of millions of people. In November 2019, more than 11 000 scientists from
all over the world declared that “planet Earth is facing a climate emergency” [11].
Global warming is directly linked with both IND4.0 and circular economy. The development of
innovative low‐carbon technologies, especially in the energy sector, which will allow the
immediate reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the hasty decarbonization of our economies,
is an urgent necessity. IND4.0 not only brings the promise of unimaginable innovation, but it also
provides new tools to coordinate the global responses on global warming, increase energy
efficiency and reduce losses, as well as actively forecast and link energy supply and demand [12].
However, according to the International Resource Panel [13], by 2050 almost 1.5 billion tonnes of
metals will be required to develop low‐carbon infrastructure and wiring. The World Bank has
predicted that the development of green low‐carbon technologies will definitely drive a substantial
increase in the demand for several minerals and metals such as aluminum, copper, lead, lithium,
manganese, nickel, silver, steel, zinc, and other rare earth minerals [14]. Thus, the progress in
circular economy becomes a condition for a decarbonized future, especially as some of the metals
required (indium, tellurium) are already characterized by severe risks of medium and long term
supply deficits [15]. More about the role of circular economy and climate change will be discussed
in Chapter 3.
Another pressing issue that must be considered in the context of the planet's future is the serious
damage and loss of biodiversity, a clear signal that the world is approaching its natural physical
limits. The human footprint has become dominant on Earth: 75% of the land‐based environment
and about two third of the marine environment have been significantly altered by human actions,
and almost one million animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction, many within
decades, more than ever before in human history [16]. At least 680 vertebrate species have been
The End of Business as Usual
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!
— Niels Bohr
RECOMMENDED LISTENING
Kind of Blue, Miles Davis
Due to the fact that it is melancholic, romantic, cool, but still remarkably inspiring for forward
thinking.
RECOMMENDED VIEWING
Wall‐E by Disney
Because it shows the future of our world if IND4.0 and the circular economy are not combined.
1.1 The Trillion‐Dollar Question
1.2 The Future Is Warmer, Urbanized, Polluted and Resource‐Hungry
1.3 It Can't Happen Again
1.4 It's About People, Not Waste
1.5 About This Book
1.1 THE TRILLION‐DOLLAR QUESTION
This is a book about circular economy (CE) and the fourth industrial revolution (IND 4.0) and
about their interlinkage and the way their interaction will determine the future of our planet, as the
authors of this book assert. Despite the many ongoing discussions on both the circular economy
and IND 4.0, rarely is it recognized that they are deeply interconnected, and in real life they cannot
be discussed separately, and should not be considered to be mutually exclusive.
In spite of the widespread discussion and countless policy initiatives regarding circular economy,
it is usually ignored the fact that IND 4.0 provides the technological, economic, and social
framework in which a circular economy will flourish or fail. As an example, a well‐referenced
report [1] estimated that the implementation of the circular economy in the European Union (EU)
will create 1.2–3 million additional jobs by 2030. However, the report seems to ignore that the
essential works required in preparation for reuse, repair, and disassembly either will be automated
and robotized or will not become economically viable. In the era of IND4.0, the circular economy
will either be digitized, automated, and augmented, or it will not prevail at all.
,On the other hand, discourse around IND 4.0 usually focuses on the advances relevant to resource
and labor productivity, the radical changes to business models, and the social challenges involved.
It is rarely discussed that IND4.0, unless it diverts from the “business as usual” linear approach,
will also stimulate and accelerate resource depletion and pollution in an era in which Earth is fast
approaching, or has already surpassed, some of its planetary limits. IND4.0 will either meet the
circular economy or accelerate environmental deterioration and potential collapse of ecosystems
and human societies. This will be covered in more detail in Chapter 2.
IND4.0 and the circular economy represent challenges that are valued, quite literally, in the many
trillions of dollars. One of the key aspects that should be considered is that a shift to a circular
economy might be the only possible means of sustaining economic growth in the long term through
a serious rearrangement of the economic inputs and outputs in all the industrial supply chains. An
online analysis [2] of the economic benefits of circular economy reveals that in the EU the annual
material cost savings are estimated up to $630 billion, and that is only for the sectors of complex
medium‐lived products such as mobile phones and washing machines. For fast consumption
products such as those for household cleaning, the expected material cost savings are estimated at
$700 billion/year. Accenture [3] has assessed that the shift to a circular economy has the potential
to create an additional $4.5 trillion economic output by 2030, if circular business models are
rapidly adopted. In addition, such a shift can contribute to closing the eight billion‐tonne material
gap between supply and demand that is expected in 2030. In the long term, an additional $25
trillion economic output is forecast by 2050. These economic benefits do not include the
monetization of the expected environmental benefits such as the reduction of carbon dioxide
emissions; the gradual decline in consumption of primary materials, which can reach to 32% within
the next 10 years; and the benefits from the reduction of land degradation that already costs more
than $40 billion annually. McKinsey has calculated [4] that for the EU an additional $1.3 trillion
of benefits annually is expected in non‐resource and externality costs.
Moving to IND4.0, for the period 2015–2025, the World Economic Forum assessed [5] the
economic and social benefits of the digital transformation to almost $100 trillion through digital
consumption, digital enterprise, societal implications, and platform governance. By 2025, the
digital economy will have a share of 24.3% of the global economy and a value of $23 trillion,
compared with 15.5% and $11.5 trillion in 2016, according to a report prepared by Oxford
Economics [6], providing extra income of $500/year for the average worker. The same report
assessed that the digital economy is growing 2.5 times faster than the global economy and that, on
average over the past three decades, a US $1 investment in digital technologies has led to a US
$20 rise in gross domestic product (GDP).
Since both the circular economy and IND4.0 represent trillions of dollars in opportunities, this
book poses the trillion‐dollar question: will IND 4.0 and the circular economy converge, hence
delivering not only better resource efficiency but a more sustainable future for everyone on the
planet? Or will IND4.0 evolve according to the business as usual linear model, leaving the circular
economy a mere flight of fancy, resulting in faster resource depletion, acceleration of
environmental degradation, and deeper inequality? The authors of this book believe that any
answer to the trillion‐dollar question involves the transformation of the waste management sector.
However, before delving deeper into this discussion, it is beneficial to outline the planetary
, framework in which the circular economy and IND4.0 are discussed. A warmer, continuously
urbanized, and more resource‐demanding planet sets the scene from which our future will evolve.
1.2 THE FUTURE IS WARMER, URBANIZED,
POLLUTED, AND RESOURCE‐HUNGRY
It has always been difficult to predict the future, but in a world that is becoming continuously more
interconnected and complex, discontinuity and abrupt change become the rule and not the
exception, as the 2008–2013 financial crisis proved. Still, there are some basic trends that will
continue to shape our planet for the next 20–30 years.
The first trend is global warming. Although there are some differing opinions, there is a very strong
consensus about the roots of the problem and the way to deal with it. About 97% of the studies
published by climate scientists agree that global warming is extremely likely to be linked to human
activities [7]. Almost all of the major scientific organizations worldwide [8] endorse such a view.
Regarding extreme weather phenomena, between 2015 and 2018, more than 100 papers have been
published on this subject, and 75% of them concluded [9] that extreme weather is related to global
warming. In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned [10]
that only a dozen years are available to keep global warming to a maximum of 1.5 °C, beyond
which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat, and
poverty for hundreds of millions of people. In November 2019, more than 11 000 scientists from
all over the world declared that “planet Earth is facing a climate emergency” [11].
Global warming is directly linked with both IND4.0 and circular economy. The development of
innovative low‐carbon technologies, especially in the energy sector, which will allow the
immediate reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the hasty decarbonization of our economies,
is an urgent necessity. IND4.0 not only brings the promise of unimaginable innovation, but it also
provides new tools to coordinate the global responses on global warming, increase energy
efficiency and reduce losses, as well as actively forecast and link energy supply and demand [12].
However, according to the International Resource Panel [13], by 2050 almost 1.5 billion tonnes of
metals will be required to develop low‐carbon infrastructure and wiring. The World Bank has
predicted that the development of green low‐carbon technologies will definitely drive a substantial
increase in the demand for several minerals and metals such as aluminum, copper, lead, lithium,
manganese, nickel, silver, steel, zinc, and other rare earth minerals [14]. Thus, the progress in
circular economy becomes a condition for a decarbonized future, especially as some of the metals
required (indium, tellurium) are already characterized by severe risks of medium and long term
supply deficits [15]. More about the role of circular economy and climate change will be discussed
in Chapter 3.
Another pressing issue that must be considered in the context of the planet's future is the serious
damage and loss of biodiversity, a clear signal that the world is approaching its natural physical
limits. The human footprint has become dominant on Earth: 75% of the land‐based environment
and about two third of the marine environment have been significantly altered by human actions,
and almost one million animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction, many within
decades, more than ever before in human history [16]. At least 680 vertebrate species have been
