,Contents
Part IProspects for Energy, Commodities,
Water, Food, and Healthcare
Chapter 1Energy, Commodities, and Water
Chapter 2Food and Agriculture
Chapter 3Healthcare and the Life Sciences
Part IIBusiness Transformations
Chapter 4The Sharing Economy
Chapter 5The Fourth Industrial Revolution
Chapter 6The Gig Economy
Chapter 7Salient Patterns in the Global Economy
Chapter 8Consumers and Consumption
Chapter 9Labor, Work Organization, and Education
Part IIIInnovation and Technology
Chapter 10Innovation and Research
Chapter 11Emerging Technologies
About the Author
Index
,PART I
Prospects for Energy, Commodities, Water, Food, and Healthcare
CHAPTER 1
Energy, Commodities, and Water
1. The Surge of Energy Demand in Developing Economies
2. Rising and Falling Energy Resources
3. The Attractiveness of Natural Gas
4. The Rise of Alternative and Renewable Energies in Developed and Developing
Economies
5. Growing Demand for Natural Resources
6. International Trade of Natural Resources
7. Higher Levels of Price Volatility
8. Global Perils of Water Scarcity
The Surge of Energy Demand in Developing Economies
The global primary energy demand has grown 1.6 times since 1970, from 104.5 million barrels of
oil equivalent (mboe/d) in 1970 to 273.9 mboe/d in 2014 and is expected to increase by another
40 percent by 2040 [8]. The most important driver of energy demand is economic growth, which
is often measured in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). The world’s GDP is expected to
rise by 3.3 percent per year between 2012 and 2040, suggesting a steady increase in energy demand
over the course of the next three decades. The fastest rates of economic growth belong to the
developing economies outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) with a GDP growth of almost 4.2 percent per year. In the developed economies or the
OECD club, the GDP will grow at a much slower rate of 2 percent per year over the course of the
next three decades [1]. Energy consumption per capita in the OECD region has already peaked
around 2005 and is now either stable or declining. This pattern of energy consumption in developed
economies relates to service-based and technologically advanced economies that capitalize on
energy-efficiency gains [8]. The developed and rich economies still have the highest levels of
energy consumption per capita, but they are marked by more mature economies and lower levels
of population growth. It is estimated that the per capita energy use in the OECD countries is still
60 to 70 percent higher than that in the rest of the world. For example, in the United States, energy
consumption is almost 30 times higher than in Bangladesh.
Because of a combination of higher population growth, economic development, and changes in
their lifestyles, the developing economies will experience the highest levels of increase in energy
consumption in the next three decades. Across the world, more than 1.3 billion people still do not
have access to electricity, and 3 billion people use simple stoves burning waste, wood, and animal
dung for heating and cooking [2]. As the least developed regions of the world undergo socio-
economic development, they will necessarily add to the global energy consumption [3]. In
emerging and developing economies, energy consumption per capita is poised to increase over the
course of the next three decades, reflecting greater electrification, urbanization, expansion of the
, middle class, and strong economic growth[8]. According to the International Energy Agency
(IEA), non-OECD energy demand will increase by over 70 percent between 2012 and 2040
compared with a growth of 18 percent in OECD nations [4] (see Figure 1.1). By 2020, China will
surpass OECD America in terms of real GDP, and by 2040, China’s GDP will be more than 1.5
times that of OECD America. Similarly, India will surpass the OECD Europe around 2034, and
by 2040, India’s real GDP will be about the same size as the OECD America [8]. The two Asian
giants China and India will lead the developing world in rising standards of living, GDP growth,
and an increase in energy demand. China and India together will account for almost half the
expected increase in global energy demand by 2040 [5, 1]. In addition, a group of 10 countries
consisting of Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand,
and Indonesia collectively will account for about 30 percent of the projected growth in energy
demand in the next three decades [5]. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
two-thirds of the world’s primary energy will be consumed in the developing economies by 2040.
This level of energy consumption in developing economies represents an increase of 54 percent
from 2010’s levels. By contrast, the OCED countries, including European nations, the United
States, Canada, Japan, and Australia, will experience an increase of almost 0.5 percent a year in
energy demand [6]. The global growth in energy demand is driven mainly by road transportation,
petrochemicals, and aviation sectors. As the developing economies are significantly lagging
behind the developed economies in the number of cars per capita, they represent a huge potential
for growth in the size of the global car fleet that will clearly boost the global energy demand [7].
The total number of passenger cars is expected to double in only 25 years between 2015 and 2040,
reaching from 1 billion to 2.1 billion [2]. Similarly, aviation demand growth is expected to
accelerate in every region of the world, but mostly in China and India. An important remark is that
many developing economies lack the required infrastructure or resources to utilize and improve
energy resources efficiently and often rely on carbon-polluting coal and other fossil fuels to
generate electricity. Consequently, the world’s levels of greenhouse gas emissions and other
pollutants are expected to rise significantly. Unless the developing economies like China and India
switch to alternative and clean energies, we can expect disastrous environmental consequences.
Part IProspects for Energy, Commodities,
Water, Food, and Healthcare
Chapter 1Energy, Commodities, and Water
Chapter 2Food and Agriculture
Chapter 3Healthcare and the Life Sciences
Part IIBusiness Transformations
Chapter 4The Sharing Economy
Chapter 5The Fourth Industrial Revolution
Chapter 6The Gig Economy
Chapter 7Salient Patterns in the Global Economy
Chapter 8Consumers and Consumption
Chapter 9Labor, Work Organization, and Education
Part IIIInnovation and Technology
Chapter 10Innovation and Research
Chapter 11Emerging Technologies
About the Author
Index
,PART I
Prospects for Energy, Commodities, Water, Food, and Healthcare
CHAPTER 1
Energy, Commodities, and Water
1. The Surge of Energy Demand in Developing Economies
2. Rising and Falling Energy Resources
3. The Attractiveness of Natural Gas
4. The Rise of Alternative and Renewable Energies in Developed and Developing
Economies
5. Growing Demand for Natural Resources
6. International Trade of Natural Resources
7. Higher Levels of Price Volatility
8. Global Perils of Water Scarcity
The Surge of Energy Demand in Developing Economies
The global primary energy demand has grown 1.6 times since 1970, from 104.5 million barrels of
oil equivalent (mboe/d) in 1970 to 273.9 mboe/d in 2014 and is expected to increase by another
40 percent by 2040 [8]. The most important driver of energy demand is economic growth, which
is often measured in terms of the gross domestic product (GDP). The world’s GDP is expected to
rise by 3.3 percent per year between 2012 and 2040, suggesting a steady increase in energy demand
over the course of the next three decades. The fastest rates of economic growth belong to the
developing economies outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) with a GDP growth of almost 4.2 percent per year. In the developed economies or the
OECD club, the GDP will grow at a much slower rate of 2 percent per year over the course of the
next three decades [1]. Energy consumption per capita in the OECD region has already peaked
around 2005 and is now either stable or declining. This pattern of energy consumption in developed
economies relates to service-based and technologically advanced economies that capitalize on
energy-efficiency gains [8]. The developed and rich economies still have the highest levels of
energy consumption per capita, but they are marked by more mature economies and lower levels
of population growth. It is estimated that the per capita energy use in the OECD countries is still
60 to 70 percent higher than that in the rest of the world. For example, in the United States, energy
consumption is almost 30 times higher than in Bangladesh.
Because of a combination of higher population growth, economic development, and changes in
their lifestyles, the developing economies will experience the highest levels of increase in energy
consumption in the next three decades. Across the world, more than 1.3 billion people still do not
have access to electricity, and 3 billion people use simple stoves burning waste, wood, and animal
dung for heating and cooking [2]. As the least developed regions of the world undergo socio-
economic development, they will necessarily add to the global energy consumption [3]. In
emerging and developing economies, energy consumption per capita is poised to increase over the
course of the next three decades, reflecting greater electrification, urbanization, expansion of the
, middle class, and strong economic growth[8]. According to the International Energy Agency
(IEA), non-OECD energy demand will increase by over 70 percent between 2012 and 2040
compared with a growth of 18 percent in OECD nations [4] (see Figure 1.1). By 2020, China will
surpass OECD America in terms of real GDP, and by 2040, China’s GDP will be more than 1.5
times that of OECD America. Similarly, India will surpass the OECD Europe around 2034, and
by 2040, India’s real GDP will be about the same size as the OECD America [8]. The two Asian
giants China and India will lead the developing world in rising standards of living, GDP growth,
and an increase in energy demand. China and India together will account for almost half the
expected increase in global energy demand by 2040 [5, 1]. In addition, a group of 10 countries
consisting of Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Thailand,
and Indonesia collectively will account for about 30 percent of the projected growth in energy
demand in the next three decades [5]. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
two-thirds of the world’s primary energy will be consumed in the developing economies by 2040.
This level of energy consumption in developing economies represents an increase of 54 percent
from 2010’s levels. By contrast, the OCED countries, including European nations, the United
States, Canada, Japan, and Australia, will experience an increase of almost 0.5 percent a year in
energy demand [6]. The global growth in energy demand is driven mainly by road transportation,
petrochemicals, and aviation sectors. As the developing economies are significantly lagging
behind the developed economies in the number of cars per capita, they represent a huge potential
for growth in the size of the global car fleet that will clearly boost the global energy demand [7].
The total number of passenger cars is expected to double in only 25 years between 2015 and 2040,
reaching from 1 billion to 2.1 billion [2]. Similarly, aviation demand growth is expected to
accelerate in every region of the world, but mostly in China and India. An important remark is that
many developing economies lack the required infrastructure or resources to utilize and improve
energy resources efficiently and often rely on carbon-polluting coal and other fossil fuels to
generate electricity. Consequently, the world’s levels of greenhouse gas emissions and other
pollutants are expected to rise significantly. Unless the developing economies like China and India
switch to alternative and clean energies, we can expect disastrous environmental consequences.
