UN Population Projection Questions
1. What is the lower and upper limits on the range of projections for global population in the
Year 2100, in the 95% prediction level?
The lower prediction limit is 9.5 billion people, and the upper prediction is 12.5 billion
people.
2. What is the lower and upper limits on the range of projections for global population in the
year 2100 in the 80% prediction level?
The lower prediction limit is 10.1 billion people, and the upper prediction is 12.1 billion
people.
3. Is population expected to rise in each of the projections?
In all forecasts it is predicted to rise for around the next 50 years until 2070 however, the
lower predictions state that it could then plateau out and even decline.
4. Do you think it is important that multiple projections are given? Why and Why not?
Multiple predictions is good in that it allows everyone to prepare for different outcomes
while not being too wide a range. However, it can be easier if there was just one prediction
as then it could be easier to workout exactly how much of other resources we are going to
need, for example food. However, one prediction is usually less accurate.
5. The UN’s projection is based on projected trends in fertility. What might cause fertility rates
to increase or decrease?
If medicine continues to advance and spread to less developed countries, then infant
mortality rates could decrease which could result in more people having children. Although
if there are diseases that spread especially amongst dense urban population then we could
see an increase in a death rate as well as people in developed countries might have less
children, such as in the UK.
6. What other factors besides those that affect fertility rates, impact future trends?
Depending on infant mortality rates will change predictions as the less babies that die the
greater the population will grow. Also people are starting to live longer due to better
medicine which means that more people are alive at the same time and therefore the
population grows.
1. What is the lower and upper limits on the range of projections for global population in the
Year 2100, in the 95% prediction level?
The lower prediction limit is 9.5 billion people, and the upper prediction is 12.5 billion
people.
2. What is the lower and upper limits on the range of projections for global population in the
year 2100 in the 80% prediction level?
The lower prediction limit is 10.1 billion people, and the upper prediction is 12.1 billion
people.
3. Is population expected to rise in each of the projections?
In all forecasts it is predicted to rise for around the next 50 years until 2070 however, the
lower predictions state that it could then plateau out and even decline.
4. Do you think it is important that multiple projections are given? Why and Why not?
Multiple predictions is good in that it allows everyone to prepare for different outcomes
while not being too wide a range. However, it can be easier if there was just one prediction
as then it could be easier to workout exactly how much of other resources we are going to
need, for example food. However, one prediction is usually less accurate.
5. The UN’s projection is based on projected trends in fertility. What might cause fertility rates
to increase or decrease?
If medicine continues to advance and spread to less developed countries, then infant
mortality rates could decrease which could result in more people having children. Although
if there are diseases that spread especially amongst dense urban population then we could
see an increase in a death rate as well as people in developed countries might have less
children, such as in the UK.
6. What other factors besides those that affect fertility rates, impact future trends?
Depending on infant mortality rates will change predictions as the less babies that die the
greater the population will grow. Also people are starting to live longer due to better
medicine which means that more people are alive at the same time and therefore the
population grows.
