Question
You are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform
KCB's decision whether and when to add additional high bay capacity to the toll
station. 1. Plot the historic data and provide an estimate of seasonality of the
leisure traffic. 2. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of 2025,
based on the complete data set you have been given. Create a suitable chart to
visualise the data. 3. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of
2025, based solely on data recorded after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
in January 2020. Create a suitable chart to visualise the data. 4. Discuss the
similarity and differences between the two forecasts. 5. What advice would you
offer KCB regarding the decision to invest in additional capacity? Note that
there is no expectation that you will use specialist software to undertake this
assignment. No additional credit will be given for doing so. Microsoft Excel is
quite sufficient. Show your working; simple, auditable steps are preferred to the
use of complex models.
, Answer & Explanation
To address the questions regarding the traffic forecasting for KCB, we'll
proceed step by step using basic forecasting techniques. Here's a structured
approach using Excel:
1. Plot the Historic Data and Estimate Seasonality
Firstly, let's plot the historic data and estimate the seasonality. Suppose we have
monthly traffic data from January 2017 to December 2023 (7 years).
- Step-by-step:
a. Enter the historic traffic data into Excel.
b. Create a line chart to visualize the traffic data over time.
c. Calculate the seasonal indices to estimate seasonality. This can be done by
You are to use the supplied historic data to develop forecasts that can inform
KCB's decision whether and when to add additional high bay capacity to the toll
station. 1. Plot the historic data and provide an estimate of seasonality of the
leisure traffic. 2. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of 2025,
based on the complete data set you have been given. Create a suitable chart to
visualise the data. 3. Provide a forecast of the expected traffic up to the end of
2025, based solely on data recorded after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic
in January 2020. Create a suitable chart to visualise the data. 4. Discuss the
similarity and differences between the two forecasts. 5. What advice would you
offer KCB regarding the decision to invest in additional capacity? Note that
there is no expectation that you will use specialist software to undertake this
assignment. No additional credit will be given for doing so. Microsoft Excel is
quite sufficient. Show your working; simple, auditable steps are preferred to the
use of complex models.
, Answer & Explanation
To address the questions regarding the traffic forecasting for KCB, we'll
proceed step by step using basic forecasting techniques. Here's a structured
approach using Excel:
1. Plot the Historic Data and Estimate Seasonality
Firstly, let's plot the historic data and estimate the seasonality. Suppose we have
monthly traffic data from January 2017 to December 2023 (7 years).
- Step-by-step:
a. Enter the historic traffic data into Excel.
b. Create a line chart to visualize the traffic data over time.
c. Calculate the seasonal indices to estimate seasonality. This can be done by
