PEACE AND SECURITY IN EUROPE
Leiden University
2024-2025
Contents
Lectures 2
2Literature: Keukeleire, S., & Delreux, T. (2022). The foreign policy 28
f the European Union (Third edition.) Chapter 4, 5, 7
1
, LECTURE 1 - The world in transition
Liberal International Order (LIO):
Is an open, rule-based system, a rulebook for states on how to operate and trade to achieve
mutual gains. Built after WW2.
debate: on geographical scope, principles and emergence, is it actually universal or western?
It is a descriptive concept - describes organization of relations between states.
normative concept - prescribes how a well-organized international system SHOULD be.
Foundations:
1. free trade - To trade freely between countries.
BUT slow down due to decrease in economic might of China, anti-globalisation of US.
2. post-war system of multilateral institutions - working together to tackle problems.
BUT UN multilateral order no longer the only ones.
3. growth of democracy - support democracy, protect human rights, Third wall, triple
democracy since cold war.
BUT setbacks by Arab spring.
4. liberal values - principals of equality, fairness, freedom, rule of law.
BUT suffered since trump. Populism, nationalism etc.
Polarisation
Growing degree of polarisation in domestic and international politics, multilateralism and
cooperation on side. Polarised pov’s, big differences. Multilateral institutions not prepared.
Multiplexity
Some scientists see emerging world as return to multipolarity, wrong. 5 major differences
between prewar multipolarity and emerging 20th century world order.
1. Primary actors were the great powers of the west. it was a world of empires and
colonies. Now the power is also of organizations, regional actors and states. The
political power has become more shared.
2. Nature of economic interdependence is denser. it was trade-based mainly. Now it’s
trade, finance, global production network, supply chains. The economic
interdependence has become more thick, deep rooted.
3. Extent of economic interdependence is larger. It was mainly on Europeans. Now it is
more global. The economic interdependence has become more global in size.
4. More durable international and regional institutions, denser and set organizations.
5. difficulties of order and stability more complex. It was mainly interstate conflict. Now
not only from other states but terroristic. So the threats have become more complex.
A multiplex world means that there is no single country or idea that controls the world, like
the US did, they can no longer create rules and dominate. Instead there is
interconnectedness and interdependence, but also complex international orders, competing
and pulling in other directions.
Acharya = no global hegemony by a single nation yet increases of actors of importance to
international relations (countries, middle-powers and non-state actors). Majority of states in
IR are middle powers, more flexible, they make alliances based on pragmatic issues.
emerging threats
• 89 mil displaced people. in EU 1% compared to rest of the world, in Turkey 2%.
• Crisis worse by climate change.
• cybersecurity and disinformation, bigger role in global security
• terrorism
• energy security
2
, • autocratisation of states
• nuclear proliferation
EU and LIO
resilience defines EU response to shock and crisis.
Crisis is huge moment of urgency, immediate threat to proper functioning of policy domain
challenged by crisis in one or more MS.
Crisis for EU integration is both crisis as point in time but also as process as the moment has
influence on governance and ways of doing things in EU. So the integration was a crisis of
the moment but also long time, leads to changes in govern.
in EU no accepted definition of resilience, changes between 2012 and 2022, from addressing
crisis somewhere else to EU’s own resilience.
EU and LIO, documents and institution
2003 EU’s strategic strategy (ESS):
• context - optimistic, centred around enlargement to CEEC. Power of attraction and
optimism.
• resilience - transformative, stronger resilience of vulnerable communities.
• EU main narrative - EU never so prosperous and secure
• EU & LIO - EU role to preserve, strengthen LIO through democratisation and
multilateralism. crisis local and regional, able to address them.
• main strategy - power of attraction, short-term humanitarian assistance and long-term
approach. softening underlying causes of crisis.
2016 EU’S global strategy (EGS):
• context - new challenges, poor response to Syria, Crimea bigger threat to EU stability.
Internal challenges, rise of nationalism and populism.
• resilience - pragmatic
• EU main narrative - live in times of existential crisis, in and outside EU.
• EU & LIO - decline of LIO, task to guide peaceful transition to new global order,
universal values, interests of all.
• main strategy - realistic approach to FP, avoid idealism. Abandoning idea of
promoting democracy, focus on managing crisis.
2022 EU’s strategic compass:
• context - global pandemic, health and economy, Russia invasion and middle east
crisis. increased politicisation in EU institutions, rise illiberal parties, more polarisation.
• resilience - defensive.
• EU main narrative - return of war, power politics, contested multipolar world. more
hostile security environment requires leap forward and increase capacity and
willingness to act. dangerous world.
• EU & LIO - crisis in LIO, liberal values and international rules undermined.
• main strategy - strategic autonomy, protect us, defend rules-based system.
security perceptions
Since NATO, 2 ways of strategic thinking.
• 1949-1991 - defence, deterrence, after ‘70 dialogue and detente.
• 1991-2010 - broad approach to security, cooperation, counterterrorism, hybrid
warfare.
• 2014 - defence, deterrence
EU strategic compass launched in context of growing ambition in security and defence,
strategy for EU defence, aim to improve coherence and coordination of EU security and
defence policies, as guide. focus on 4 areas:
3
, 1. ACT - EU crisis management capabilities (Rapid Deployment Capability and epf)
2. SECURE - protecting citizens. (Cyber Defence Policy)
3. INVEST - invest more in capabilities.
4. PARTNER - partner as instrument to support EU ambition.
Security perception of EU and NATO
RUSSIA EU NATO
threat undermine EU global significant and direct threat, possibility of
perception security. aggressive and attack, not seek confrontation but not
revisionist action threaten EU partner
security order
military stronger EU defence stronger defence and deterrence, increase
response capabilities, no nuclear rapid reaction from 40 to 300 th. focus on
deterrence component nuclear, conventional and missile defence
capabilities
other political isolation, sanction keep open communication
response
long term enhance strategic autonomy stronger collective defence and deterrence
response and resilience
CHINA EU NATO
threat partner for cooperation, systematic challenge, malicious cyber
perception economic competitor, operations, disinformation, partner with
systematic rival Russia
response selective engagement constructive engagement but reciprocal
transparency
look at the other examples on the ppt.
terrorism
• EU- threat to peace and security, increase strategic partnerships.
• NATO- direct asymmetric threat, countering, prevention, protection, denial
hybrid threat
• EU- create EU hybrid threat toolbox, to strengthen reaction Single Intelligence
Analysis Capacity SIAC created. EU hybrid rapid response teams
• NATO- invest in ability to prepare and deter.
Key takeaways
• Key elements of the LIO: free trade, multilateral IIs, democracy and liberal values
• The concept of multiplex world to capture main changes in the LIO (Acharya et al.
2023)
4
Leiden University
2024-2025
Contents
Lectures 2
2Literature: Keukeleire, S., & Delreux, T. (2022). The foreign policy 28
f the European Union (Third edition.) Chapter 4, 5, 7
1
, LECTURE 1 - The world in transition
Liberal International Order (LIO):
Is an open, rule-based system, a rulebook for states on how to operate and trade to achieve
mutual gains. Built after WW2.
debate: on geographical scope, principles and emergence, is it actually universal or western?
It is a descriptive concept - describes organization of relations between states.
normative concept - prescribes how a well-organized international system SHOULD be.
Foundations:
1. free trade - To trade freely between countries.
BUT slow down due to decrease in economic might of China, anti-globalisation of US.
2. post-war system of multilateral institutions - working together to tackle problems.
BUT UN multilateral order no longer the only ones.
3. growth of democracy - support democracy, protect human rights, Third wall, triple
democracy since cold war.
BUT setbacks by Arab spring.
4. liberal values - principals of equality, fairness, freedom, rule of law.
BUT suffered since trump. Populism, nationalism etc.
Polarisation
Growing degree of polarisation in domestic and international politics, multilateralism and
cooperation on side. Polarised pov’s, big differences. Multilateral institutions not prepared.
Multiplexity
Some scientists see emerging world as return to multipolarity, wrong. 5 major differences
between prewar multipolarity and emerging 20th century world order.
1. Primary actors were the great powers of the west. it was a world of empires and
colonies. Now the power is also of organizations, regional actors and states. The
political power has become more shared.
2. Nature of economic interdependence is denser. it was trade-based mainly. Now it’s
trade, finance, global production network, supply chains. The economic
interdependence has become more thick, deep rooted.
3. Extent of economic interdependence is larger. It was mainly on Europeans. Now it is
more global. The economic interdependence has become more global in size.
4. More durable international and regional institutions, denser and set organizations.
5. difficulties of order and stability more complex. It was mainly interstate conflict. Now
not only from other states but terroristic. So the threats have become more complex.
A multiplex world means that there is no single country or idea that controls the world, like
the US did, they can no longer create rules and dominate. Instead there is
interconnectedness and interdependence, but also complex international orders, competing
and pulling in other directions.
Acharya = no global hegemony by a single nation yet increases of actors of importance to
international relations (countries, middle-powers and non-state actors). Majority of states in
IR are middle powers, more flexible, they make alliances based on pragmatic issues.
emerging threats
• 89 mil displaced people. in EU 1% compared to rest of the world, in Turkey 2%.
• Crisis worse by climate change.
• cybersecurity and disinformation, bigger role in global security
• terrorism
• energy security
2
, • autocratisation of states
• nuclear proliferation
EU and LIO
resilience defines EU response to shock and crisis.
Crisis is huge moment of urgency, immediate threat to proper functioning of policy domain
challenged by crisis in one or more MS.
Crisis for EU integration is both crisis as point in time but also as process as the moment has
influence on governance and ways of doing things in EU. So the integration was a crisis of
the moment but also long time, leads to changes in govern.
in EU no accepted definition of resilience, changes between 2012 and 2022, from addressing
crisis somewhere else to EU’s own resilience.
EU and LIO, documents and institution
2003 EU’s strategic strategy (ESS):
• context - optimistic, centred around enlargement to CEEC. Power of attraction and
optimism.
• resilience - transformative, stronger resilience of vulnerable communities.
• EU main narrative - EU never so prosperous and secure
• EU & LIO - EU role to preserve, strengthen LIO through democratisation and
multilateralism. crisis local and regional, able to address them.
• main strategy - power of attraction, short-term humanitarian assistance and long-term
approach. softening underlying causes of crisis.
2016 EU’S global strategy (EGS):
• context - new challenges, poor response to Syria, Crimea bigger threat to EU stability.
Internal challenges, rise of nationalism and populism.
• resilience - pragmatic
• EU main narrative - live in times of existential crisis, in and outside EU.
• EU & LIO - decline of LIO, task to guide peaceful transition to new global order,
universal values, interests of all.
• main strategy - realistic approach to FP, avoid idealism. Abandoning idea of
promoting democracy, focus on managing crisis.
2022 EU’s strategic compass:
• context - global pandemic, health and economy, Russia invasion and middle east
crisis. increased politicisation in EU institutions, rise illiberal parties, more polarisation.
• resilience - defensive.
• EU main narrative - return of war, power politics, contested multipolar world. more
hostile security environment requires leap forward and increase capacity and
willingness to act. dangerous world.
• EU & LIO - crisis in LIO, liberal values and international rules undermined.
• main strategy - strategic autonomy, protect us, defend rules-based system.
security perceptions
Since NATO, 2 ways of strategic thinking.
• 1949-1991 - defence, deterrence, after ‘70 dialogue and detente.
• 1991-2010 - broad approach to security, cooperation, counterterrorism, hybrid
warfare.
• 2014 - defence, deterrence
EU strategic compass launched in context of growing ambition in security and defence,
strategy for EU defence, aim to improve coherence and coordination of EU security and
defence policies, as guide. focus on 4 areas:
3
, 1. ACT - EU crisis management capabilities (Rapid Deployment Capability and epf)
2. SECURE - protecting citizens. (Cyber Defence Policy)
3. INVEST - invest more in capabilities.
4. PARTNER - partner as instrument to support EU ambition.
Security perception of EU and NATO
RUSSIA EU NATO
threat undermine EU global significant and direct threat, possibility of
perception security. aggressive and attack, not seek confrontation but not
revisionist action threaten EU partner
security order
military stronger EU defence stronger defence and deterrence, increase
response capabilities, no nuclear rapid reaction from 40 to 300 th. focus on
deterrence component nuclear, conventional and missile defence
capabilities
other political isolation, sanction keep open communication
response
long term enhance strategic autonomy stronger collective defence and deterrence
response and resilience
CHINA EU NATO
threat partner for cooperation, systematic challenge, malicious cyber
perception economic competitor, operations, disinformation, partner with
systematic rival Russia
response selective engagement constructive engagement but reciprocal
transparency
look at the other examples on the ppt.
terrorism
• EU- threat to peace and security, increase strategic partnerships.
• NATO- direct asymmetric threat, countering, prevention, protection, denial
hybrid threat
• EU- create EU hybrid threat toolbox, to strengthen reaction Single Intelligence
Analysis Capacity SIAC created. EU hybrid rapid response teams
• NATO- invest in ability to prepare and deter.
Key takeaways
• Key elements of the LIO: free trade, multilateral IIs, democracy and liberal values
• The concept of multiplex world to capture main changes in the LIO (Acharya et al.
2023)
4
