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Summary of Quantitative Research Methods III Lectures

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This document provides a concise summary of core concepts from the Quantitative Research Methods III course. It covers foundational mathematics (functions, derivatives, optimisation), key statistical principles (distributions, expectations, variance), and introduces linear regression, including estimation methods like Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), model interpretation, and the distinction between prediction and causality.

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Voorbeeld van de inhoud

Lecture 1 – Introduction
Mathematics Statistics

-​ Notation -​ Population, Sample & Random
-​ Functions & Equations Variable
-​ Optimising Functions -​ Distributions
-​ Distribution Moments
-​ Law of Iterated Expectations
-​ Law of Large Numbers &
Convergence

Mathematics – Notation

→ Intervals & Sets
●​ We will be working with real numbers (2, – 56.57, 13/28, √2, π)
○​ Not real numbers: √-1, ∞
●​ A set is a collection of real numbers
○​ {1, 68}, {2}, {all odd numbers between 5 & 187}
○​ Special sets:
■​ Set of all real numbers: ℝ
■​ Set of all natural numbers: ℕ = {0, 1, 2, …}
●​ An interval is the set of all real numbers between two fixed endpoints
○​ Closed interval includes both endpoints: [a, b]
○​ Open interval excludes both endpoints: (a, b)
○​ Half-open (or half-closed) interval only includes one endpoint: (a, b] or [a, b)

→ Sigma Notation
●​ Summation operator (capital sigma: ∑), means ‘add up all of the following elements’
○​ Suppose we have a set of four numbers x1, x2, x3 and x4 then:
4
∑ 𝑥𝑖 = 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 + 𝑥4
𝑖=1
○​ Subscript i is an index (i = 1 is lower limit, i = 4 is upper limit of sum)


Properties of the Sigma Notation

Commutativity

, Distributivity
for a constant c



Summing a
constant c




Mathematics – Functions & Equations

→ Definition of a function
●​ A function describes the relation between two or more variables.
○​ Functions relate an outcome variable y to input variables x1, x2, …
○​ A general function is denoted by f(·)
y = f(x1, x2, …)
○​ A univariate function only takes one input variable
y = f(x1)
○​ Multivariate functions take multiple input variables


A function y = f(x1, x2, …) relates one outcome value y to each possible set of input variables
{x1, x2, …}

→ Equations
●​ Equations are mathematical expressions that indicate an equality
○​ Simple examples: 1 = 1, 2 + 2 = 4
○​ Functions are equations in one or more variables
2
​ ​ y = 𝑥1
3 2
​ ​ y = 5𝑥1 − 16𝑥2 + 43


■​ We can calculate the outcome (y) by substituting for the input variables 𝑥1
and 𝑥2
■​ Given an outcome (y), we can also determine which the set of input
variables that are consistent with this outcome

, ●​ Linear equation with one unknown
○​ a, b, c, d = known constants
○​ x = unknown variable
ax + b = cx +d
​ ​ How to solve for x?
○​ Goal is to isolate x on one side of the equality
○​ Valid manipulations to achieve this are:
■​ Adding (subtracting) the same value to (from) both sides of the equation.
■​ Multiplying (dividing) both sides of the equation with (by) the same value


Example 1 Example 2




●​ System of equations: 2 equations in 2 unknowns
○​ {𝑎𝑖, 𝑏𝑖, 𝑐𝑖, 𝑑𝑖, 𝑒𝑖, 𝑓𝑖} i ∈ {1 ,2} = known constants
○​ 𝑥1 and 𝑥2 = unknown variables


𝑎1𝑥1 + 𝑏1𝑥2 + 𝑐1 = 𝑑1𝑥1 + 𝑒1𝑥2 + 𝑓1
𝑎2𝑥1 + 𝑏2𝑥2 + 𝑐2 = 𝑑2𝑥1 + 𝑒2𝑥2 + 𝑓2


How to solve for 𝑥1 and 𝑥2?
1.​ Isolate 𝑥1 in Equation (1) as a function of 𝑥2
2.​ Substitute this into Equation (2) to find the solution for 𝑥2
3.​ Substitute the solution from step 2 into step 1, to find the solution for 𝑥1


Example: consider the following system of two linear equations
𝑥1 − 3 = 2 − 𝑥2
2𝑥1 − 𝑥2 = 1


Step 1: isolate one variable (here 𝑥2 is most convenient)
2𝑥1 − 𝑥2 = 1 → + 𝑥2 → – 1 → 𝑥2 = 2𝑥1 − 1

, Step 2: substitute the result into the unused equation to find solution
𝑥1 − 3 = 2 − 𝑥2 ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ | 𝑥2 = 2𝑥1 − 1
𝑥1 − 3 = 2 − [2𝑥1 − 1]
𝑥1 − 3 = 2 − 2𝑥1 + 1
𝑥1 − 3 = 3 − 2𝑥1​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ | + 2𝑥1
3𝑥1 − 3 = 3​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ |+3
3𝑥1 = 6​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ |/3
𝑥1 = 2


Step 3: substitute solution of step 2 into the solution of step 1
𝑥2 = 2𝑥1 − 1​​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ | 𝑥1 = 2
𝑥2 = 2 × 2 − 1 = 3 ​


CHECK: substitute solution into the original equations to check

●​ Simplifying simple quadratic equations
○​ Three simple quadratic equations often show up

2 2
(𝑎 + 𝑏) (𝑎 − 𝑏) (𝑎 + 𝑏) (𝑎 − 𝑏)




●​ Derivatives of functions
○​ The first derivative of a function y = f(x) is denoted:
∂𝑦 ∂𝑓(𝑥)
∂𝑥
= ∂𝑥
= 𝑓'(𝑥) → It describes the change in y when x increases marginally.


○​ The second derivative is the derivative of the first derivative:
2
∂𝑦 ∂𝑓'(𝑥)
2 = ∂𝑥
= 𝑓''(𝑥)
∂𝑥

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