BSAT 382 EXAM 2 QUESTIONS
PERFECTLY ANSWERED TO PASS!!
a statement about the future value of a variable of interest Answer forecast
why are forecasts generally wrong? Answer 1. actual results usually differ from
predicted values
2. forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual
items because of the canceling effect
3. forecast accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases
what are the elements of a good forecast? Answer 1. timely
2. accurate
3. reliable
4. meaningful units
5. in writing
6. simple to understand and use
7. cost-effective
what are the steps in the forecasting process? Answer 1. determine purpose of the
forecast
2. establish a time horizon
3. obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data
4. select a forecasting technique
5. make the forecast
6. monitor the forecast errors
Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales
staff, managers, executives, and experts. Answer judgemental forecast
Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time-series observations. Answer
Time-series forecasts
Forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand.
Answer Associative model
An iterative process in which managers and staff complete a series of questionnaires,
each developed from the previous one, to achieve a consensus forecast. Answer
Delphi method
, a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals Answer time
series
a long-term upward or downward movement in data Answer trend
short-term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day Answer seasonality
wavelike variations lasting more than one year Answer cycle
caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behavior Answer irregular
variation
residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for Answer random
variation
a forecast for any period that equals the previous period's actual value Answer naive
forecast
technique that averages a number of recent actual values, updated as new values
become available Answer moving average
more recent values in a series are given more weight in computing a forecast Answer
weighted average
a weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the
forecast error Answer exponential smoothing
using the forecasting method that demonstrates the best recent success Answer
focus forecasting
Ft = a + bt, used to develop forecasts when trend is present Answer linear trend
equation
variation of exponential smoothing used when a time series exhibits a linear trend
Answer trend-adjusted exponential smoothing
regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events
Answer seasonal variations
percentage of average or trend Answer seasonal relative
a moving average positioned at the center of the data that were used to compute it
Answer centered moving average
PERFECTLY ANSWERED TO PASS!!
a statement about the future value of a variable of interest Answer forecast
why are forecasts generally wrong? Answer 1. actual results usually differ from
predicted values
2. forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual
items because of the canceling effect
3. forecast accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases
what are the elements of a good forecast? Answer 1. timely
2. accurate
3. reliable
4. meaningful units
5. in writing
6. simple to understand and use
7. cost-effective
what are the steps in the forecasting process? Answer 1. determine purpose of the
forecast
2. establish a time horizon
3. obtain, clean, and analyze appropriate data
4. select a forecasting technique
5. make the forecast
6. monitor the forecast errors
Forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales
staff, managers, executives, and experts. Answer judgemental forecast
Forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time-series observations. Answer
Time-series forecasts
Forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand.
Answer Associative model
An iterative process in which managers and staff complete a series of questionnaires,
each developed from the previous one, to achieve a consensus forecast. Answer
Delphi method
, a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals Answer time
series
a long-term upward or downward movement in data Answer trend
short-term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day Answer seasonality
wavelike variations lasting more than one year Answer cycle
caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behavior Answer irregular
variation
residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for Answer random
variation
a forecast for any period that equals the previous period's actual value Answer naive
forecast
technique that averages a number of recent actual values, updated as new values
become available Answer moving average
more recent values in a series are given more weight in computing a forecast Answer
weighted average
a weighted averaging method based on previous forecast plus a percentage of the
forecast error Answer exponential smoothing
using the forecasting method that demonstrates the best recent success Answer
focus forecasting
Ft = a + bt, used to develop forecasts when trend is present Answer linear trend
equation
variation of exponential smoothing used when a time series exhibits a linear trend
Answer trend-adjusted exponential smoothing
regularly repeating movements in series values that can be tied to recurring events
Answer seasonal variations
percentage of average or trend Answer seasonal relative
a moving average positioned at the center of the data that were used to compute it
Answer centered moving average
