Illusions of Autonomy by Brooks and Meijer
Could Europeans develop an autonomous defence capacity if there were a complete US withdrawal
from Europe?
In the past decade, Europe's security landscape has changed dramatically. Russia is far stronger than
it was 10 years ago and the annexation of Crimea showed that territorial revisionism remains a
security concern in Europe. With the current threats of Donald Trump to leave NATO and the
extreme polarization that is happening in the US, doubts have risen among European policymakers
about the long-term reliability of the US security commitment to the continent (this is not new, they
are already concerned for over 30 years). Europe is taking meaningful steps toward strategic
autonomy, the so-called “new Grail of European defence”.
‘strategic autonomy’ = the institutional capacity to independently plan and conduct military
operations across the full spectrum of conflict and to autonomously develop and produce the related
defence capabilities with minimal or no assistance from the US.
According to the authors of the article, the European efforts to achieve strategic autonomy will be
hampered by two major constraints (mutually enforcing):
a) Europe’s strategic cacophony
= continent-wide divergences across all the domains of national defence policies, most notably threat
perceptions
Threat assessments (dreigingsevaluaties) in Europe (authors a mixed method: coding threat
perceptions + interviews with senior policy and defence officials)
‘Russia is not a threat’
-> Bulgaria, Spain, Greece, Italy
-> More concerned about other security challenges: terrorism, cyberattacks, instability in the Middle
East, migrant flows, proliferation of WMD (weapons of mass destruction)
‘Russia is a threat, but other threats are more significant’
-> Austria, Croatia, France, Switzerland
-> Also prioritize the above concerns in the first category, but display higher threat perceptions of
Russia
‘Russia and other threats have roughly equal significance’
-> Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, UK
-> Terrorism and Russia are perceived to be equally threatful
‘Russia is the highest threat, other threats are also significant’
Could Europeans develop an autonomous defence capacity if there were a complete US withdrawal
from Europe?
In the past decade, Europe's security landscape has changed dramatically. Russia is far stronger than
it was 10 years ago and the annexation of Crimea showed that territorial revisionism remains a
security concern in Europe. With the current threats of Donald Trump to leave NATO and the
extreme polarization that is happening in the US, doubts have risen among European policymakers
about the long-term reliability of the US security commitment to the continent (this is not new, they
are already concerned for over 30 years). Europe is taking meaningful steps toward strategic
autonomy, the so-called “new Grail of European defence”.
‘strategic autonomy’ = the institutional capacity to independently plan and conduct military
operations across the full spectrum of conflict and to autonomously develop and produce the related
defence capabilities with minimal or no assistance from the US.
According to the authors of the article, the European efforts to achieve strategic autonomy will be
hampered by two major constraints (mutually enforcing):
a) Europe’s strategic cacophony
= continent-wide divergences across all the domains of national defence policies, most notably threat
perceptions
Threat assessments (dreigingsevaluaties) in Europe (authors a mixed method: coding threat
perceptions + interviews with senior policy and defence officials)
‘Russia is not a threat’
-> Bulgaria, Spain, Greece, Italy
-> More concerned about other security challenges: terrorism, cyberattacks, instability in the Middle
East, migrant flows, proliferation of WMD (weapons of mass destruction)
‘Russia is a threat, but other threats are more significant’
-> Austria, Croatia, France, Switzerland
-> Also prioritize the above concerns in the first category, but display higher threat perceptions of
Russia
‘Russia and other threats have roughly equal significance’
-> Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, UK
-> Terrorism and Russia are perceived to be equally threatful
‘Russia is the highest threat, other threats are also significant’
