GGH4804
ASSIGNMENT 03
(877393)
Due 28 July 2025
, GGH4804 ASSIGNMENT 03: CRITICAL LITERATURE REVIEW REPORT
Title: A Critical Literature Review on the Geographic Prediction of Drought in Southern
Africa in the Context of Global Environmental Change
1. Introduction
Drought constitutes one of the most pervasive and devastating environmental hazards
globally, with Southern Africa being particularly vulnerable due to its climatic variability,
socioeconomic context, and ecological fragility (Lyon & Mason, 2007). This literature review
critically assesses the utility of geographic characteristics, tools, and techniques in
predicting drought in the region, drawing upon Adger and Brooks' (2003, p. 19) assertion
that while many natural hazards follow predictable patterns, global environmental change
is transforming their nature and impact. The report explores whether Southern African
droughts can still be understood within historical paradigms or whether new
methodological and conceptual frameworks are required in light of anthropogenic climate
shifts.
2. Understanding Drought in the Context of Southern Africa
Drought is commonly defined as a prolonged period of deficient precipitation resulting in
water scarcity (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). In Southern Africa, drought manifests with
increasing frequency and intensity, threatening agricultural productivity, water availability,
biodiversity, and socio-economic stability (Reason et al., 2005). Historic episodes such as
the 1991–1992 drought and the El Niño-linked 2015–2016 event highlight the importance of
precise forecasting mechanisms and the integration of geographic factors in predictive
modelling (Rouault & Richard, 2003).
Key climatic influences such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), sea surface
temperatures (SSTs), and atmospheric teleconnections like the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) interact with local topography and land use to modulate drought
dynamics (Shongwe et al., 2009; Unganai & Mason, 2002).
ASSIGNMENT 03
(877393)
Due 28 July 2025
, GGH4804 ASSIGNMENT 03: CRITICAL LITERATURE REVIEW REPORT
Title: A Critical Literature Review on the Geographic Prediction of Drought in Southern
Africa in the Context of Global Environmental Change
1. Introduction
Drought constitutes one of the most pervasive and devastating environmental hazards
globally, with Southern Africa being particularly vulnerable due to its climatic variability,
socioeconomic context, and ecological fragility (Lyon & Mason, 2007). This literature review
critically assesses the utility of geographic characteristics, tools, and techniques in
predicting drought in the region, drawing upon Adger and Brooks' (2003, p. 19) assertion
that while many natural hazards follow predictable patterns, global environmental change
is transforming their nature and impact. The report explores whether Southern African
droughts can still be understood within historical paradigms or whether new
methodological and conceptual frameworks are required in light of anthropogenic climate
shifts.
2. Understanding Drought in the Context of Southern Africa
Drought is commonly defined as a prolonged period of deficient precipitation resulting in
water scarcity (Wilhite & Glantz, 1985). In Southern Africa, drought manifests with
increasing frequency and intensity, threatening agricultural productivity, water availability,
biodiversity, and socio-economic stability (Reason et al., 2005). Historic episodes such as
the 1991–1992 drought and the El Niño-linked 2015–2016 event highlight the importance of
precise forecasting mechanisms and the integration of geographic factors in predictive
modelling (Rouault & Richard, 2003).
Key climatic influences such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), sea surface
temperatures (SSTs), and atmospheric teleconnections like the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) interact with local topography and land use to modulate drought
dynamics (Shongwe et al., 2009; Unganai & Mason, 2002).
