PBSI 245 Test 3 Review – Concepts & Theories
What is frequentism?
- frequent repetition
- observing outcomes and patterns if events are repeated over and over again
- utilized to catch things in the long run
What are the truths about probability?
chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in
the long run
What does "random" mean in regards to probability?
individual outcomes are uncertain but regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of
repetitions
What is probability?
- a number between 0 and 1
- describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions
- long-term regularity of random behavior
, What do probabilities of 0, 1, and 0.5 mean?
0 = never occurs
1 = always occurs
0.5 = happens half the time in a very long series of trials
What is the myth of short-run regularity?
the idea of probability is that randomness is regular in the long run, not random in the short
run, ex: long-term probability in the coin example, half heads/half tails (in the long run)
What is the myth of law of averages?
- assumption that independent events are related and more likely to occur depending on each
other, ex: gamblers "due" for a win after 5 losses
- personal bias
What is the law of large numbers?
- in large number of independent repetitions of a random phenomenon
What is frequentism?
- frequent repetition
- observing outcomes and patterns if events are repeated over and over again
- utilized to catch things in the long run
What are the truths about probability?
chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in
the long run
What does "random" mean in regards to probability?
individual outcomes are uncertain but regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of
repetitions
What is probability?
- a number between 0 and 1
- describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions
- long-term regularity of random behavior
, What do probabilities of 0, 1, and 0.5 mean?
0 = never occurs
1 = always occurs
0.5 = happens half the time in a very long series of trials
What is the myth of short-run regularity?
the idea of probability is that randomness is regular in the long run, not random in the short
run, ex: long-term probability in the coin example, half heads/half tails (in the long run)
What is the myth of law of averages?
- assumption that independent events are related and more likely to occur depending on each
other, ex: gamblers "due" for a win after 5 losses
- personal bias
What is the law of large numbers?
- in large number of independent repetitions of a random phenomenon
