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Summary WATER RESOURCE AVAILABILITY IN THREE CATCHMENTS OF ESWATINI UNDER EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

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Abstract The greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) concentrations in the atmosphere have increased very much since the industrial revolution. The greenhouse gas effect has been projected to cause global average temperature increase in the order of 1.4 to 5.8oC over the period 1990 to 2100. Therefore, global average annual precipitation is projected to increase during the 21st century due to the greenhouse effect. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the three catchments (Komati, Mbuluzi and Ngwavuma) has been evaluated using General Circulation Model results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) namely: Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ); Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and United Kingdom Transient Resilient (UKTR) were found appropriate for use to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075. This information was used to generate the temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for the three catchments for year 2075 which was input into a calibrated WatBall rainfall runoff model. Simulation results without taking into consideration of water use projections show that there will be high flows during the summer months but low flows during the winter months. Simulation results after taking into consideration of water use projections show a water deficit from June to September in both the Komati, and Ngwavuma catchments and a water deficit from May to September in the Mbuluzi catchment. This means that the environmental water needs and Swaziland’s water and release obligation to South Africa and Mozambique will not be met during the winter months under climate change.

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Published Quarterly ISSN 0250-8060




WATER
I n t e r n a t i o n a l
Click here to access the Table of Contents
December 2006
Volume 31, No. 4




IWRA
INTERNATIONAL WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION
Asociación Internacional de Recursos Hídricos
Association Internationale des Ressources en Eau

,
, International Water Resources Association
Water International, Volume 31, Number 4, December 2006
© 2006 International Water Resources Association


Contents

GIS and Multi-Criteria Evaluation: Robust Tools for Integrated Water Resources Management
Amgad Elmahdi (Austrailia), Khaled Kheireldin (Egypt) and Atef Hamdy (Italy) 440

The Performance of Water Service Industry Stock Prices & Sensitivity to Highly Publicized
Contract Failures
Charles W. Howe and John S. Howe (USA) 448

Legislating for Adequate Public Participation in Allocating Water in Australia
Poh-Ling Tan (Austrailia) 455

Implementing the EU Water Framework Directive: Experiences of
Participatory Planning in the Ribble Basin, North West England
Nigel Watson and Joe Howe (UK) 472

A Tale of Two Waters: the Missouri River, the Great Lakes and Management of Future Water Conflict
Mohammed H.I. Dore and David Whorley (Canada) 488

Evaluation of Water Resources in Dalmatia for Human Health
Nives Štambuk-Giljanović (Croatia) 499

Water Resource Availability in Three Catchments of Swaziland under Expected Climate Change
Jonathan I. Matondo and Kenneth M. Msibi (Swaziland) 514

Hydropower Optimization for the lower Seyhan Basin System in Turkey using
Dynamic Programming
Recep Yurtal, Galip Seckin and Mehmet Ardiclioglu (Turkey) 528

Discussion Notes:
"Forests and Floods: Moving to an Evidence-based Approach to Watershed and Integrated
Flood Management" by Ian Calder (UK) and Bruce Aylward (USA)
Nick A. Chappell 541

Reply to Axel Bronstert, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz and Nick Chappell
545
Ian R. Calder (UK) and Bruce Aylward (USA)
(USA)






, International Water Resources Association
Water International, Volume 31, Number 4, Pg. 440-447, September 2006
© 2006 International Water Resources Association




GIS and Multi-Criteria Evaluation: Robust Tools for Integrated
Water Resources Management

Amgad Elmahdi, IDTC, Civil & Environmental Engineering Department Melbourne Uni-3010 Victoria-
Australia, Khaled Kheireldin, National Water Research Center, Egypt,
and Atef Hamdy, Istituto Agronomico Mediterraneo, Bari, Italy.


Abstract: Integrated water resources planning and management are considered very complex issues.
These issues are usually addressed through the multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary and hierarchal decomposition
approaches. In general, integrated resource management indicates the consideration of water, social, socio-
economic, economic and environmental issues. The current study aims at merging the GIS and Multi-Criteria
Evaluation (MCE) techniques for the integrated water resource management of a cropped area. An area of about
120,000 Hectares located in the Northern Nile River Delta area with a coastal zone on the Mediterranean was
selected and GIS was applied to represent the area’s different environment, social, economic, and water factors.
Different randomization cropping pattern distribution scenarios were proposed. Through the merging of GIS and
MCE approaches, three scenarios were run and evaluated at three different levels: farm, canal catchment area
and whole area. This merging resulted in a very powerful tool for the evaluation of different plans. The merging
of GIS and MCE really facilitated the decision making process for these types of integrated water management
problems.

Keywords: GIS, MCE, Integrated water resources, Water balance.

1. Introduction Tourism, Power Generation, Transportation, Industry,
Housing and New communities. Each of these authori-
Fresh water is considered an important issue ties has different role in water use. For example, the
nowadays due to its scarcity, especially in the Mid- agriculture and land reclamation authority has special
dle East zone (Elmahdi, 2000). Also, water is now responsibilities in the countries where agriculture de-
considered a limiting factor for development in many pends on irrigation rather than rain because agriculture
countries. Usually water is controlled by water re- consumes the highest amount of water (NWSRU, 1996).
sources authorities. These authorities typically have For example, in Egypt the agricultural sector is respon-
sible for use about 85% of surface water. On the other
water discharge along rivers, canals and drains. Also, hand, due to the globalization, several countries have
in many places all over the world the water authori- started to change the cropping pattern to the liberal sys-
ties are responsible for assessing penalties in the case of tem where the farmer is allowed to cultivate whatever
violations of the water distribution laws and irrigation he wants. Prior to this liberalization, the cultivation au-
rules. thorities used to decide, depending on the international
However, from the interdisciplinary point of market prices and national food safety, which crops had
view, a number of other authorities are also involved in to be grown and farmers were forced to apply the gov-
water use: Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Health, ernmental cropping pattern (Elmahdi, 2000) . Such
planning was undertaken a year in advanceand thus,
440

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