ASSESSMENT OF IMPACT AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND
VARIABILITY ON THE WATER SECTOR IN AFRICA.
Executive Summary
Africa has six climate types namely: tropical rainforest climate near the equator and tropical savanna
climate north and south of the tropical rain forest. The tropical savanna grades poleward in both
hemispheres into a region of semiarid steppe. Narrow belts of Mediterranean type of climate are found the
northern and southern extremities of the continent.
Africa has 160 lakes and 61 international rivers shared by two or more countries. The largest basins are;
Congo, Nile, Zambezi, Niger and Volta. The rivers in Africa flow through several climatic regions before
entering the oceans (Indian, and Atlantic) and the Mediterranean, sea and therefore, depict high flow
variability at certain points. Groundwater is also another source of water to 75 percent of the population
of Africa (most of them in North Africa) (Elasha et al. 2006).
Historical record show a warming up of approximately 0.7 oC over most of Africa during the 20th century,
an increase of rainfall in east central Africa and a decrease over large portion of the Sahel region.
Actually, mean rainfall decreased by 20 to 49 percent in the Sahel region between the period 1931-1960
and 1968-1997 and generally 5-10% across the rest of the continent. The continent has also experienced
severe droughts and flood during the 20 th century. A decrease in the average discharge in most rivers in
Africa has also been observed. The surface area of Lake Chad has decrease from 50,000 km 2 in 1963 to
5000 km2 to date and has affected millions of people whose livelihoods depended on it.
The projected temperature increase due to anthropogenic activities across Africa rages from 2 oC to 5oC
for low and high climate change scenarios respectively, in the next 100 years. Studies using General
Circulation models predict a decrease in rainfall ranging from 10 to -20 percent and a decrease in runoff
ranging from 10-40 percent in major river basins in Africa. Studies using General Circulation Models
(GCMs) forecast a 10% rainfall and runoff increase for the Niger and Congo basins while the forecast for
the Nile basin is a 10% rainfall increase and no runoff change. The expected temperature increase under
climate change is going to cause high evaporation rates. Therefore, it is anticipated that runoff in the
above basins could be low. Low precipitation is going to affect groundwater recharge and therefore
1
,groundwater resource. The expected sea level rise is going to cause sea water intrusion and this will affect
groundwater and surface water in coastal areas of Africa. Big cities along the coast of Africa are also
vulnerable to expected seal level rise.
The economy of most African countries is driven by agriculture which contributes about 50 percent of the
total export value. Agriculture is mostly rainfed and subsistence in nature. There will be less rainfall in
drier areas in Africa under climate change. Therefore, agriculture in Africa is highly vulnerable to climate
change and variability and knowing that 70% of the population depends on farming, it is the poor that are
going to be affected most. The expected low flow in rivers is going to affect hydropower generation and
thus the economy of African countries.
The increase on pressure to the environment due population increase and climate change and variability
effects will compound the problem of desertification. The areas that are now dry-humid, semiarid and arid
will become semiarid, arid and desert respectively. People in drought prone areas will abandon
agriculture and move to cities. The number of people depending on food aid will increase in the future.
The continent has been ravaged by droughts and floods and the expected increase in frequency of these
extreme events is going to have a negative effect on human beings, infrastructure and the environment.
This will have a negative impact on the economy of African countries.
The coping strategies for water demand are: efficient water use, rainwater harvesting and groundwater
utilization. Coping strategies for food demand are: efficient water use at the farm level, better soil and
water conservation practice and the planting of drought tolerant crops. Coping strategies to meet energy
demand are: regional cooperation in sharing hydropower, use or renewable energy such as solar and wind
energy, biogas and efficient use of biomass.
Over 85 percent of fresh water resources in Africa are shared between two or more countries, hence the
need for stronger cooperation. The impact of climate change is enormous, hence can, not adequately be
addressed by individual watercourse countries acting independently as that may fall short in meeting the
economies of scale. The formation of river basin institutions nationally or internationally is a pre-
requisite to the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Principles.
The water resources adaptation options needed to deal with the effects of climate change and variability
in the sector of water resources are: Conservation and improved efficiency, technological change, market
2
,driven transfers to other activities, and implementation of IWRM. International collaboration is a pre-
requisite to the implementation of IWRM.
The overarching principles for effective adaptation policy and strategy implementation are political will,
good governance, and social responsibility is recommended. Availability of financial resources and
human resources capacity are also the main determining factors. The proposed water policy in Africa is
as follows:
International water resources should be managed in accordance to the Dublin-Rio principles.
Establishment and/or strengthen existing river basin institutions national/international should be
considered as a pre-requisite for the implementation of IWRM.
Climate change adaptation options/strategies should be included in national development action
plans.
Integrated Flood Management (IFM) should be applied in flood prone areas (restrictions to be
limited to structural development only).
Water shall be allocated for environmental needs (inflow water requirement)
Water resources development shall at all times ensure environmental protection.
Gender mainstreaming in the management of water resources shall be encouraged in line with the
Dublin-Rio principles.
Exchange of experiences including best practices on farming should be promoted to ensure that
watersheds are not degraded.
Encourage rainwater harvesting techniques
Strengthen National and Regional capacities for information gathering and monitoring.
Strengthen Regional cooperation and encourage exchange of data and information.
Proposed short-term, strategy and specific actions are as follows: implementation of efficient water use at
all levels (water demand management), strengthening and utilization of early warning systems,
implementation of IWRM, implementation of rainwater harvesting, groundwater development,
development of clean energy sources and public awareness.
Proposed long-term strategy and specific actions are as follows: water resources development and inter
basin water transfers and the construction of desalination plants. Desalination is expensive and is only
going to be possible to countries that have access to the sea and will be the last resort after exhausting all
alternative sources of water.
1. Introduction
3
, 1.1 Back ground
The African continent is divided into five regions namely: Southern Africa, Eastern Africa,
North Africa, Central Africa and West Africa. All of these regions experience different climatic
conditions and cultural differences also exist.
Africa’s climatic zones are largely controlled by the continent’s location astride the equator and
its almost symmetrical extension into the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Thus, except
where altitude exerts a moderating influence on temperature or precipitation (permanently
snowcapped peaks are found near the equator), Africa may be divided into six climatic regions.
Areas near the equator and on the windward shores of SE Madagascar have a tropical rain forest
climate, with heavy rain and high temperatures throughout the year. North and south of the rain
forest are belts of tropical savanna climate, with high temperatures all year and a seasonal
distribution of rain during the summer season. The savanna grades poleward in both hemispheres
into a region of semiarid steppe (with limited summer rain) and then into the arid conditions of
the extensive Sahara (north) and the Kalahari (south). Belts of semiarid steppe with limited
winter rain occur on the poleward sides of the desert regions. At the northern and southern
extremities of the continent are narrow belts of Mediterranean-type climate with subtropical
temperatures and a concentration of rainfall mostly in the autumn and winter months.
Htt://www.infoplease.com/ce6/world/A0856492.html (2/2/2008).
Africa has the greatest number of rivers and surface water bodies that cross or form international
boundaries. Table 1 shows 11 largest surface-water bodies in sub-Saharan Africa with their
corresponding riparian states/countries and basin area. The 11 river basin in Table 1 (including
lake Chad and Lake Victoria) have a total drainage area greater than 35000 km 2, and they affect
36 sub-Sahara African countries and Egypt. Africa has 61 international river basins shared by
two or more countries. Drainage basins with more than five riparian countries are: Chad, Volta,
Zambezi, Niger, Congo and the Nile. Africa has more than 160 lakes with surface area greater
than 27 km2, most of which are located around the equatorial region and sub-humid East African
highlands within the Rift Valley (The Africa Water Vision in the 21 st Century, 2000). Ground
water represents 15% of Africa’s water resource with major aquifers found in arid regions of
north, Central, and southern Africa. Ground water is a very important source of drinking water
4
VARIABILITY ON THE WATER SECTOR IN AFRICA.
Executive Summary
Africa has six climate types namely: tropical rainforest climate near the equator and tropical savanna
climate north and south of the tropical rain forest. The tropical savanna grades poleward in both
hemispheres into a region of semiarid steppe. Narrow belts of Mediterranean type of climate are found the
northern and southern extremities of the continent.
Africa has 160 lakes and 61 international rivers shared by two or more countries. The largest basins are;
Congo, Nile, Zambezi, Niger and Volta. The rivers in Africa flow through several climatic regions before
entering the oceans (Indian, and Atlantic) and the Mediterranean, sea and therefore, depict high flow
variability at certain points. Groundwater is also another source of water to 75 percent of the population
of Africa (most of them in North Africa) (Elasha et al. 2006).
Historical record show a warming up of approximately 0.7 oC over most of Africa during the 20th century,
an increase of rainfall in east central Africa and a decrease over large portion of the Sahel region.
Actually, mean rainfall decreased by 20 to 49 percent in the Sahel region between the period 1931-1960
and 1968-1997 and generally 5-10% across the rest of the continent. The continent has also experienced
severe droughts and flood during the 20 th century. A decrease in the average discharge in most rivers in
Africa has also been observed. The surface area of Lake Chad has decrease from 50,000 km 2 in 1963 to
5000 km2 to date and has affected millions of people whose livelihoods depended on it.
The projected temperature increase due to anthropogenic activities across Africa rages from 2 oC to 5oC
for low and high climate change scenarios respectively, in the next 100 years. Studies using General
Circulation models predict a decrease in rainfall ranging from 10 to -20 percent and a decrease in runoff
ranging from 10-40 percent in major river basins in Africa. Studies using General Circulation Models
(GCMs) forecast a 10% rainfall and runoff increase for the Niger and Congo basins while the forecast for
the Nile basin is a 10% rainfall increase and no runoff change. The expected temperature increase under
climate change is going to cause high evaporation rates. Therefore, it is anticipated that runoff in the
above basins could be low. Low precipitation is going to affect groundwater recharge and therefore
1
,groundwater resource. The expected sea level rise is going to cause sea water intrusion and this will affect
groundwater and surface water in coastal areas of Africa. Big cities along the coast of Africa are also
vulnerable to expected seal level rise.
The economy of most African countries is driven by agriculture which contributes about 50 percent of the
total export value. Agriculture is mostly rainfed and subsistence in nature. There will be less rainfall in
drier areas in Africa under climate change. Therefore, agriculture in Africa is highly vulnerable to climate
change and variability and knowing that 70% of the population depends on farming, it is the poor that are
going to be affected most. The expected low flow in rivers is going to affect hydropower generation and
thus the economy of African countries.
The increase on pressure to the environment due population increase and climate change and variability
effects will compound the problem of desertification. The areas that are now dry-humid, semiarid and arid
will become semiarid, arid and desert respectively. People in drought prone areas will abandon
agriculture and move to cities. The number of people depending on food aid will increase in the future.
The continent has been ravaged by droughts and floods and the expected increase in frequency of these
extreme events is going to have a negative effect on human beings, infrastructure and the environment.
This will have a negative impact on the economy of African countries.
The coping strategies for water demand are: efficient water use, rainwater harvesting and groundwater
utilization. Coping strategies for food demand are: efficient water use at the farm level, better soil and
water conservation practice and the planting of drought tolerant crops. Coping strategies to meet energy
demand are: regional cooperation in sharing hydropower, use or renewable energy such as solar and wind
energy, biogas and efficient use of biomass.
Over 85 percent of fresh water resources in Africa are shared between two or more countries, hence the
need for stronger cooperation. The impact of climate change is enormous, hence can, not adequately be
addressed by individual watercourse countries acting independently as that may fall short in meeting the
economies of scale. The formation of river basin institutions nationally or internationally is a pre-
requisite to the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Principles.
The water resources adaptation options needed to deal with the effects of climate change and variability
in the sector of water resources are: Conservation and improved efficiency, technological change, market
2
,driven transfers to other activities, and implementation of IWRM. International collaboration is a pre-
requisite to the implementation of IWRM.
The overarching principles for effective adaptation policy and strategy implementation are political will,
good governance, and social responsibility is recommended. Availability of financial resources and
human resources capacity are also the main determining factors. The proposed water policy in Africa is
as follows:
International water resources should be managed in accordance to the Dublin-Rio principles.
Establishment and/or strengthen existing river basin institutions national/international should be
considered as a pre-requisite for the implementation of IWRM.
Climate change adaptation options/strategies should be included in national development action
plans.
Integrated Flood Management (IFM) should be applied in flood prone areas (restrictions to be
limited to structural development only).
Water shall be allocated for environmental needs (inflow water requirement)
Water resources development shall at all times ensure environmental protection.
Gender mainstreaming in the management of water resources shall be encouraged in line with the
Dublin-Rio principles.
Exchange of experiences including best practices on farming should be promoted to ensure that
watersheds are not degraded.
Encourage rainwater harvesting techniques
Strengthen National and Regional capacities for information gathering and monitoring.
Strengthen Regional cooperation and encourage exchange of data and information.
Proposed short-term, strategy and specific actions are as follows: implementation of efficient water use at
all levels (water demand management), strengthening and utilization of early warning systems,
implementation of IWRM, implementation of rainwater harvesting, groundwater development,
development of clean energy sources and public awareness.
Proposed long-term strategy and specific actions are as follows: water resources development and inter
basin water transfers and the construction of desalination plants. Desalination is expensive and is only
going to be possible to countries that have access to the sea and will be the last resort after exhausting all
alternative sources of water.
1. Introduction
3
, 1.1 Back ground
The African continent is divided into five regions namely: Southern Africa, Eastern Africa,
North Africa, Central Africa and West Africa. All of these regions experience different climatic
conditions and cultural differences also exist.
Africa’s climatic zones are largely controlled by the continent’s location astride the equator and
its almost symmetrical extension into the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Thus, except
where altitude exerts a moderating influence on temperature or precipitation (permanently
snowcapped peaks are found near the equator), Africa may be divided into six climatic regions.
Areas near the equator and on the windward shores of SE Madagascar have a tropical rain forest
climate, with heavy rain and high temperatures throughout the year. North and south of the rain
forest are belts of tropical savanna climate, with high temperatures all year and a seasonal
distribution of rain during the summer season. The savanna grades poleward in both hemispheres
into a region of semiarid steppe (with limited summer rain) and then into the arid conditions of
the extensive Sahara (north) and the Kalahari (south). Belts of semiarid steppe with limited
winter rain occur on the poleward sides of the desert regions. At the northern and southern
extremities of the continent are narrow belts of Mediterranean-type climate with subtropical
temperatures and a concentration of rainfall mostly in the autumn and winter months.
Htt://www.infoplease.com/ce6/world/A0856492.html (2/2/2008).
Africa has the greatest number of rivers and surface water bodies that cross or form international
boundaries. Table 1 shows 11 largest surface-water bodies in sub-Saharan Africa with their
corresponding riparian states/countries and basin area. The 11 river basin in Table 1 (including
lake Chad and Lake Victoria) have a total drainage area greater than 35000 km 2, and they affect
36 sub-Sahara African countries and Egypt. Africa has 61 international river basins shared by
two or more countries. Drainage basins with more than five riparian countries are: Chad, Volta,
Zambezi, Niger, Congo and the Nile. Africa has more than 160 lakes with surface area greater
than 27 km2, most of which are located around the equatorial region and sub-humid East African
highlands within the Rift Valley (The Africa Water Vision in the 21 st Century, 2000). Ground
water represents 15% of Africa’s water resource with major aquifers found in arid regions of
north, Central, and southern Africa. Ground water is a very important source of drinking water
4
