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1. What is forecasting in operations management?
A) The process of setting employee goals
B) Estimating company profits after taxes
C) The attempt to determine future supply and demand for operational needs
to reduce uncertainty
D) Recording past performance only
2. Why is forecasting important for organizations?
A) It ensures 100% accuracy in predicting the future
B) It helps match supply and demand efficiently, reducing uncertainty in
decision-making
C) It eliminates all business risks
D) It determines employee scheduling only
3. What are the two main uses of forecasting?
A) Plan employee schedules and budgets
B) Plan the system and plan the use of the system
C) Plan product designs and pricing
D) Plan marketing and customer service activities
,4. Forecasts can take the form of:
A) Trend or seasonal values
B) A point estimate or a range estimate, each with probability values
C) Monthly or yearly goals
D) Quantitative or qualitative data only
5. Forecasts are frequently:
A) Perfect
B) Based on intuition only
C) Wrong, to some degree
D) Always statistically proven
6. What is more important than forecast accuracy?
A) Lowering production costs
B) Having contingency plans to address inevitable forecast errors
C) Increasing sales volume
D) Using more data points
7. How does forecast accuracy change as the time horizon increases?
A) It improves
B) It stays constant
C) It decreases
D) It becomes irrelevant
8. What is the key assumption behind most forecasting models?
A) The future will be unpredictable
B) Random events dominate all systems
C) The past patterns or trends will repeat in the future
D) External factors have no effect
,9. Which of the following statements about forecasting is TRUE?
A) Forecasts eliminate the need for planning
B) Forecasts provide guidance but must be supported by adaptive strategies
C) Forecasts guarantee profitability
D) Forecasts are always quantitative
10. Which statement best describes the relationship between forecasting and
decision-making?
A) Forecasting replaces strategic decisions
B) Forecasting focuses only on historical data
C) Forecasting supports decision-making by anticipating future conditions and
resource needs
D) Forecasting determines company policy directly
The eight steps of forecasting
- Select the items to be forecasted
- Determine use objectives
- Fix Time Horizon
- Gather Data
- Select forecasting model(s)
- Make Forecasts
- Validate forecasting model(s)
- Implement Results
Types of forecasts
Judgemental
Time Series
Associative
Judgemental forecasts
, use subjective inputs (ex. Opinions)
Executive opinions
Sales force opinions
Consumer surveys
Outside opinion
Delphi method (circulating a series of questionnaires, achieves consensus
forecast)
Time Series Forecast
predicts future data based on patterns of historical data
Components of a time series forecast
Trend, Seasonality, Cycles, Random Variations
TSCR
Trend (t)
(Time-Series)
gradual upward or downward movement over time
Seasonality (S)
(Time-Series)
short-term, regular variations related to calendar or time of day
Cycles (C)
(Time-Series)
patterns in the data occurring every several years. Tied to business cycle