Voting Behaviour and the Media-
Long Term/ Social Determinants-
Age-
- Every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points.
Younger people back the left wing and older people back the right.
- 73% of 18-24 voters backed Remain in the EU referendum, while 60% of 65+ backed Leave.
- YouGov confirmed in 2019 that age was still the biggest dividing line, and the votes by age
over time scale is becoming more and more distinct
- 56% of 18-24 voted Labour in 2019, while 67% of 70+ voted Conservative
- A recent report found that millennials are less likely to make the right wing switch as they get
older, as they are failing to acquire attributes that move voters rightwards, such as home
ownership and secure employment.
Region-
- Urban vs Rural split as Tories had only 21 out of 73 MPs in London, and only 8 Mps from 73
seats in 18 main cities outside of London
- The 2001 election saw 56% of the South vote Tory, and 82% of the votes in the North were
Labour. There are arguments behind the recent collapse of the ‘Red Wall’, although this is not
valid evidence as it hasn’t been in effect long enough.
- Parties unique to devolved areas show region being a factor too. The SNP currently hold 45
out of 59 scottish seats in Westminster
- The collapse of the ‘Red Wall’ in recent years has undermined region as a factor, with general
declines in Labour's vote share for the last 20 years
- In 2019, the Conservatives polled consistently well across England and most of Wales.
Class-
- A higher percentage of middle class voters have voted Conservative than for any other party in
every election.
- Similarly, Labour got more voters from the DE class than any other party in every election.
- Although social class has traditionally been a big determinant, changing class systems and
social class being less clear cut has changed that.
- In 2010, 38% of voters supported their class’ natural party, compared to over 50% in 1979
- In 2017, just 9% more DE voters voted Labour than Conservative, compared to a 35%
difference in 1974
- In 2017, Conservatives performed equally well among ABC1 and C2DE
Partisanship-
- Lots of people still support a party like a football club, and will be loyal to that party regardless
of other factors or current affairs.
- In 1966, 90% of voters claimed to identify with a party, while only 10% of voters were ‘very
strong’ in 2005.
- This is due to ideological changes within parties, it’s social importance decreasing (such as
social clubs), and the impact of the media meaning more voters are swayed at each election,
undermining social and long term determinants
, Short Term/ Individual Trends and Issue voting-
Valence Voting-
The perceived ability of governing competence in managing affairs, the state and the economy of a
party. An example of this is the 2008 economic crash, which helped lead to Labour’s 2010 election
defeat. This was because Labour was blamed for an increase in the UK’s debt, and therefore poor
economic governance.
Rational Choice-
The theory that people vote with their own personal issues and ideas in favour, such as a business
owner voting Conservative, in order to pay less taxes
Issue Voting-
Arguably the biggest factor, being that people vote with issues and current affairs most in mind. An
example of this is people voting to deal with Brexit, which had a large impact on the 2017 and 2019
elections. Another example is the 1979 Winter of Discontent that put Thatcher in power.
Voting based on Manifestos-
- Parties use manifestos to appeal to rational voters, and as a promise to those valence voting.
- It provides a ‘doctrine of the mandate’, so people will vote for a party’s manifesto as it’s almost
like a contract, promising the policies within it.
- A party can also be measured based on their manifesto success in previous years. Labour’s
manifesto in 2017 failed to outline a firm stance on Brexit, damaging its result.
- However, a voter might not always agree to a whole manifesto, and these promises are often
vague, making it difficult to dispute. Coalition governments also mean manifestos are diluted
Party Leaders-
- Party leaders are figureheads for a party, and many voters vote with this in mind. In 2019, May
lost the conservative majority as she was seen as ‘stiff’ and ‘wooden’.
- Tony Blair was a charismatic leader, with plenty of ideas for reform and as a result won 3
elections.
- There has been an increase in recent years of ‘presidentialism’.
- In the 1979 election, PM Callaghan led Thatcher by 20% in the popularity polls, but lost the
election.
- In 2019, Sturgeon regained many seats but had a -25% satisfaction rating before the election.
- Evidence suggests that people still choose party over leader.
Tactical Voting-
- People use tactical voting if they deem their first choice could be a ‘wasted’ vote, and so will
vote to block another party. Examples of these are:
- Greens voting Labour in a close Lab/Con contest
- UKIP voting Conservative in a close Con/Lab contest
- Evidence suggests that in 2010, there was influence in 77 constituencies with 10% of voters
choosing their second preference.
- There has neer been any official party advice to vote tactically, and it’s impossible to estimate
- There were huge pushes on keeping the SNP out in 2015 through tactical voting, but the SNP
still had a big win
Long Term/ Social Determinants-
Age-
- Every 10 years older a voter is, their chance of voting Tory increases by around nine points.
Younger people back the left wing and older people back the right.
- 73% of 18-24 voters backed Remain in the EU referendum, while 60% of 65+ backed Leave.
- YouGov confirmed in 2019 that age was still the biggest dividing line, and the votes by age
over time scale is becoming more and more distinct
- 56% of 18-24 voted Labour in 2019, while 67% of 70+ voted Conservative
- A recent report found that millennials are less likely to make the right wing switch as they get
older, as they are failing to acquire attributes that move voters rightwards, such as home
ownership and secure employment.
Region-
- Urban vs Rural split as Tories had only 21 out of 73 MPs in London, and only 8 Mps from 73
seats in 18 main cities outside of London
- The 2001 election saw 56% of the South vote Tory, and 82% of the votes in the North were
Labour. There are arguments behind the recent collapse of the ‘Red Wall’, although this is not
valid evidence as it hasn’t been in effect long enough.
- Parties unique to devolved areas show region being a factor too. The SNP currently hold 45
out of 59 scottish seats in Westminster
- The collapse of the ‘Red Wall’ in recent years has undermined region as a factor, with general
declines in Labour's vote share for the last 20 years
- In 2019, the Conservatives polled consistently well across England and most of Wales.
Class-
- A higher percentage of middle class voters have voted Conservative than for any other party in
every election.
- Similarly, Labour got more voters from the DE class than any other party in every election.
- Although social class has traditionally been a big determinant, changing class systems and
social class being less clear cut has changed that.
- In 2010, 38% of voters supported their class’ natural party, compared to over 50% in 1979
- In 2017, just 9% more DE voters voted Labour than Conservative, compared to a 35%
difference in 1974
- In 2017, Conservatives performed equally well among ABC1 and C2DE
Partisanship-
- Lots of people still support a party like a football club, and will be loyal to that party regardless
of other factors or current affairs.
- In 1966, 90% of voters claimed to identify with a party, while only 10% of voters were ‘very
strong’ in 2005.
- This is due to ideological changes within parties, it’s social importance decreasing (such as
social clubs), and the impact of the media meaning more voters are swayed at each election,
undermining social and long term determinants
, Short Term/ Individual Trends and Issue voting-
Valence Voting-
The perceived ability of governing competence in managing affairs, the state and the economy of a
party. An example of this is the 2008 economic crash, which helped lead to Labour’s 2010 election
defeat. This was because Labour was blamed for an increase in the UK’s debt, and therefore poor
economic governance.
Rational Choice-
The theory that people vote with their own personal issues and ideas in favour, such as a business
owner voting Conservative, in order to pay less taxes
Issue Voting-
Arguably the biggest factor, being that people vote with issues and current affairs most in mind. An
example of this is people voting to deal with Brexit, which had a large impact on the 2017 and 2019
elections. Another example is the 1979 Winter of Discontent that put Thatcher in power.
Voting based on Manifestos-
- Parties use manifestos to appeal to rational voters, and as a promise to those valence voting.
- It provides a ‘doctrine of the mandate’, so people will vote for a party’s manifesto as it’s almost
like a contract, promising the policies within it.
- A party can also be measured based on their manifesto success in previous years. Labour’s
manifesto in 2017 failed to outline a firm stance on Brexit, damaging its result.
- However, a voter might not always agree to a whole manifesto, and these promises are often
vague, making it difficult to dispute. Coalition governments also mean manifestos are diluted
Party Leaders-
- Party leaders are figureheads for a party, and many voters vote with this in mind. In 2019, May
lost the conservative majority as she was seen as ‘stiff’ and ‘wooden’.
- Tony Blair was a charismatic leader, with plenty of ideas for reform and as a result won 3
elections.
- There has been an increase in recent years of ‘presidentialism’.
- In the 1979 election, PM Callaghan led Thatcher by 20% in the popularity polls, but lost the
election.
- In 2019, Sturgeon regained many seats but had a -25% satisfaction rating before the election.
- Evidence suggests that people still choose party over leader.
Tactical Voting-
- People use tactical voting if they deem their first choice could be a ‘wasted’ vote, and so will
vote to block another party. Examples of these are:
- Greens voting Labour in a close Lab/Con contest
- UKIP voting Conservative in a close Con/Lab contest
- Evidence suggests that in 2010, there was influence in 77 constituencies with 10% of voters
choosing their second preference.
- There has neer been any official party advice to vote tactically, and it’s impossible to estimate
- There were huge pushes on keeping the SNP out in 2015 through tactical voting, but the SNP
still had a big win
