UNIT 1 CHANGING POPULATION
Geography SL
Population Pyramids
development/progression of an average country over time
45/65+
post-reproductive
(old dependants)
15-44/64
Demographic Transition Model and Population change over time reproductive
(economically active)
0-14
pre-reproductive
(young dependants)
limitations
economic development/ time/ stages 1-5
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
high end variable: early expanding: late expanding: low and variable: low and declining:
birth rates and death rates are birth rates remain high but the birth rate drops and death rate birth rates and death rates are birth rate is lower than the death
high and variable death rate comes down rapidly remains low low and variable rate
population growth fluctuates population growth is rapid population growth continues but population growth fluctuates the population declines
no countries, only some Afghanistan, Sudan, Lybia are at a smaller rate UK and most developed Japan is at this stage
indigenous (primitive) tribes still at this stage Brazil, Argentina are at this stage countries are at this stage
at this stage UK passed through this stage UK passed through this stage in
UK at this stage until about by 1850 1950
1750
High birth and death rates Low birth and death rates
parents want children: People die from: Birth rates decline because: Mortality rates decline due to:
for labour lack of clean water children are very costly clean water
to look after them in old age lack of food the government looks after people reliable food supply
to continue the family name poor hygiene and sanitation through pensions and health services good hygiene and sanitation
prestige overcrowding more women want their own career lower population densities
to replace other children who contagious diseases (increasing equality) better vacations and healthcare
died poverty more widespread use of family planning rising standards of living
family ideal + social/religious no access/ existing medical care infant mortality decreases - less need to
norms (nuclear famlily) and technology replace children
Dependency ratio: measures the working population The Demographic Divident: economic growth braught on by a change in the
and the dependent population. structure of a country’s population, usually a result of a fall in fertility! and
mortality rates. This causes a bulge in the number of adults in a population-non-
dependant & economically active! with more income by those than expenses on
the dependent >>> economic growth
Population momentum: the lag period before the rate of natural increase or decrease affects population growth. PMF=CBRxLEB
This happens because children who have already been born but not reached childbearing PMF= 1, natural
age will continue to grow the population until the overall trend evens out. increasing not
Doubling time: years needed for a population to doule in size. 70 (years)/RNI (%) = doubling time affecting
Population projections: predictions abt future population based on trends in fertility, mortality migration, DTMs >> populatin growth
PMF - Population Momentum Factor PMF> 1, positive
CBR - Crude Birth Rate: number of live births occuring during the year, per 1000 population (estimated at midyear) momentum and
this will lead to
CDR - Crude Death/Mortality Rate: number of deaths occuring during the year, per 1000 population. the future
LEB - Average life expectancy at birth growth
RNI - Rate of Natural Increase: rate of natral population change in the absence of migration (CBR-CDR) PMF< 1, negative
DTM - Demographic Transition Model momentum and
ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATIONS probably a
MEDC’s - More economically developed countries (f.ex. UK, USA, Germany) decline in
population size.
LEDC’s - Less economically developed countries (f.ex. Brasil, India, Indonesia, Phillipines, Namibia, Egypt)
HIC - High income country (f.ex. Germany, USA, Switzerland, Japan, Saudi, Slovenia) RNI = CBR - CDR
MIC - Middle income country (f.ex. Poland, Romania, Bulgaria)
LIC - Low income country (f.ex. Haiti, Nigeria, Senegal, Mozambique, Afghanistan)
NIC - Newly industrializing country (f.ex. China - just reached No. 1 on leaderboard for windpower)
RIC - Recently industrializing countries (f.ex. Chile - econ reforms, market liberalization)
LDC - Least developed countries (f.ex. Mali, Nepal, Sudan, Afghanistan)
categories of NIC’s showing economic growth or potential for growth:
BRICs - Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa share initiatives, currency
MINT - Mexico, Indesia, Nigeria and Turkey
CPE - centrally planned economies (f.ex. North Korea)
CIVETS - Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa
N11 - Next Eleven: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Phillipines, Turkey,
South Korea, Vietnam (countries that have potentially the fastest growing economies in the 21st century)
, Megacities & Migration Mumbai - megacity growth
Population disribution through + Population distribution inequalities (cs. China) Indias largest city - about 18million pop
financial, commercial, entertainment centre of india
most people in China live in “mega-regions & cities”, mostly Eastern part 25% of indias Industrial output, over 6% of total GDP
40% of foreign trade,
TNCs - transnational corporations + centre of bollywood
physical geography - coastal areas, lower valleys vs mountains, desert industries
access & commerce, transportation, agriculture (arable land) Per capita income about 3x national average
economic development - in big cities, creating jobs, access to facilities, businesses, Mumbai City District Mumbai Suburban District
medical care, transportation, more resources, community, education about 9million live in slums
gender ratio: 838fem/1000males - greater male migration
internal migration - due to job opportunities, into larger cities, cultural/religious poverty, under-/ unemployment, limited access to health
>>> wealth inequalities, millionaire cities, care, education, poor sanitation + access to electricity
Dharavi - main slum 2km ² 1 million ppl
China 2010 pop distribution core-periphery inequality Growth of megacities
Population growth and processing through DTM leads to
spacial changes
One of the most dynamic is the urbanization
Rapid urbanization experienced in developing countries
creates huge challenges both for local authorities and
inhabitants
Why is measuring the population of a city a difficult task
A city is considered a megacity once it surpasses 10 million
predicted to have the inhabitants
greatest number of
megacities in 2030 34 megacities already
China, India the bigger the city the more unequal life is there
Internal Migration International Migration Emmigration Immigration Migration
Pull Factors Push Factors
Conflict-Induced Displacements Voluntary migration
Migrants and Immigrants internal/
Development-Induced Displacement international
conscious decision, intention of
Disaster-Induced Displacement settling & lawful permanent
residents & citizens
---forced migration---
refugees - refugee status, protections under international laws and International
Rescue Committees
internally displaced people - not crossing international borders, cant return threat and fear of
prosecution
asylum seekers- must apply for refuge status post crossing, might not be granted based on
requirements
Development displacees
Environmental/disaster displacees
Smuggled people, slavery, traficked people
consequences
Economic Impact - Ecological Impact - Labour market adversion
increasing demand refugee camps: higher risk of poverty
consumer soil erosion, increased violence
markets,housing deforestation, pollution socio-cultural dificulties
markets, price taxes for education and integration
increases
Forced Migration (in and from) Syria
The conflict in Syria has now driven more than four million people – a sixth of the population
– to seek sanctuary in neighbouring countries, making it the largest refugee crisis for a
quarter of a century, according to the UN.
On Thursday, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said the total number of Syrian refugees in
Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and other parts of north Africa stood at 4,013,000 people.
With at least 7.6 million people forced from their homes within Syria, almost half the
country’s people are either refugees or internally displaced. The conflict, now in its fifth
year, has killed more than 220,000 people.
The first world (developed): Western Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan
The second world: state-controlled communist countries such as the former Soviet Union
The third world (developing): all other less developed countries
GNI - Gross national income (per capita) by mid-year population
TNS - Transnational Corporations
IDP - Internally displaced Person(s)
, highest fertility rates - poorest countries (LIC’s) Fertility Fertility Rate - indicates a countries population ability
changes in fertility rates causes to have children
due to economic and sociocultural factors
status of women - gender related development index (GDI)- Countries where women status & education & paid employment low =
birth rates high
level of education and material inhibition - generalmente: higher education = less children, middle-income fams with limited
means = smallest families, low-income fams + limited resources and ambitions = larger families, affluent = can afford children
location of residence - families in rural areas more children than urban: - more rigid social pressure on women, less state control (ex.
China one-child policy), fewer education and economic opportunities for women
Religion - most religions pro-natalist, opposed to birth control and contraception, HIC’s do not follow religious dictates strictly
Health - less healthy women become pregnant more frequently
Economic prosperity
need for children - such as high infant mortality rates, offset high mortality losses, labour, care for parents in old age
Fertility indicators Life expectancy
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) average number of years assuming demographic factors remain
• General/Total Fertility Rate (TFR) unchanged
• Age Specific/Marital Fertility Rates
• Total /Marital Fertility Rates 80 years in developed countries (Monaco, Japan, Singapore, Macau)
• Gross Reproduction Rate under 50 years for men in Chad
• sex ratio at birth low life expecntancy in many sub-saharan countries: poverty, conflict
• education and economic levels/stats
https://www.fertilitydata.org/File/GetFile/Raw/IND_16.pdf
Mortality indicators
• Crude Death Rate (CDR)
• Total number of deaths Population policies
• Number of deaths by age and sex
• Infant mortality rate (IMR) PRO-NATALIST POLICIES ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES
• Under five mortality rate (U5MR)
• Maternal mortality rate (MMR) encourage reproduction reduce/discourage reproduction
• Age-specific mortality rates decrease birth rate
• Death rates by age and sex (qx)
increase birth rate
ageing population (increased overpopulation (insufficient resources
• Life expectancy at birth (LE, e0)
dependency ratio) for population) & population density
shortage of economically active (low young population & young-dependants
Ageing population birth and total fertility rates) (high birth rate and total fertility rate)
Pro-natalist incentives Anti-natalist incentives
welfare benefits, money (f.ex. for each increased access to contraceptives
child born) and family-planning
extended maternity/paternity leave promotional campaigns
and pay rules & regulations
free/subsided childcare bans
free/subsided education, healthcare
limited access to contraceptives China - one-child policy
tax breaks and housing benefits overpopulation
severe shortages of capital, natural resources,
and consumer goods
population planning initiative in China
implemented between 1979 and 2015/16 to
curb the country's population growth by
restricting many families to a single child
provincial level through contraception, abortion,
and fines that were imposed based on the
income of the family and other factors
if 2x pregnant, legally she had to be sterilized
many abortions of girls -> male role was to take
care and provide for parents
more women in workforce
population growth slowed down
economically active age population shrinking
old-dependency ratio increasing
Japan- ageing population
number of elderly people living alone increased from 0.8M (1975) to 2.5+M (2000)
Since 1975 young ppl grad declined - by 2015 13% of pop
2025 - 30% pop aged 65+ burden:
- inadequate nursing facilities
- depletion of labour force
- deterioration of economy
- trade deficit
- migration of industry out of Jp
- high cost of pension funds,
healthcare and
social welfare programms
- lower demand for schools
- new jobs, leisure facilitis need
- reduced demand for goods
+ more burden for working
TFR - Total Fertility Rate average number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age
GDI - Gender-related development index measures inequality bewteen sexes in life expecancy, education, standard of living
ODR - Older Dependency ratio indicator of balance between working-age pop and older pop that they need to support
UNHCR - United Nations High Commisioner for Refugees
TVPA - USA’s Trafficking and Violence Protection Act (2000)
UNODC - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
Geography SL
Population Pyramids
development/progression of an average country over time
45/65+
post-reproductive
(old dependants)
15-44/64
Demographic Transition Model and Population change over time reproductive
(economically active)
0-14
pre-reproductive
(young dependants)
limitations
economic development/ time/ stages 1-5
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5
high end variable: early expanding: late expanding: low and variable: low and declining:
birth rates and death rates are birth rates remain high but the birth rate drops and death rate birth rates and death rates are birth rate is lower than the death
high and variable death rate comes down rapidly remains low low and variable rate
population growth fluctuates population growth is rapid population growth continues but population growth fluctuates the population declines
no countries, only some Afghanistan, Sudan, Lybia are at a smaller rate UK and most developed Japan is at this stage
indigenous (primitive) tribes still at this stage Brazil, Argentina are at this stage countries are at this stage
at this stage UK passed through this stage UK passed through this stage in
UK at this stage until about by 1850 1950
1750
High birth and death rates Low birth and death rates
parents want children: People die from: Birth rates decline because: Mortality rates decline due to:
for labour lack of clean water children are very costly clean water
to look after them in old age lack of food the government looks after people reliable food supply
to continue the family name poor hygiene and sanitation through pensions and health services good hygiene and sanitation
prestige overcrowding more women want their own career lower population densities
to replace other children who contagious diseases (increasing equality) better vacations and healthcare
died poverty more widespread use of family planning rising standards of living
family ideal + social/religious no access/ existing medical care infant mortality decreases - less need to
norms (nuclear famlily) and technology replace children
Dependency ratio: measures the working population The Demographic Divident: economic growth braught on by a change in the
and the dependent population. structure of a country’s population, usually a result of a fall in fertility! and
mortality rates. This causes a bulge in the number of adults in a population-non-
dependant & economically active! with more income by those than expenses on
the dependent >>> economic growth
Population momentum: the lag period before the rate of natural increase or decrease affects population growth. PMF=CBRxLEB
This happens because children who have already been born but not reached childbearing PMF= 1, natural
age will continue to grow the population until the overall trend evens out. increasing not
Doubling time: years needed for a population to doule in size. 70 (years)/RNI (%) = doubling time affecting
Population projections: predictions abt future population based on trends in fertility, mortality migration, DTMs >> populatin growth
PMF - Population Momentum Factor PMF> 1, positive
CBR - Crude Birth Rate: number of live births occuring during the year, per 1000 population (estimated at midyear) momentum and
this will lead to
CDR - Crude Death/Mortality Rate: number of deaths occuring during the year, per 1000 population. the future
LEB - Average life expectancy at birth growth
RNI - Rate of Natural Increase: rate of natral population change in the absence of migration (CBR-CDR) PMF< 1, negative
DTM - Demographic Transition Model momentum and
ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATIONS probably a
MEDC’s - More economically developed countries (f.ex. UK, USA, Germany) decline in
population size.
LEDC’s - Less economically developed countries (f.ex. Brasil, India, Indonesia, Phillipines, Namibia, Egypt)
HIC - High income country (f.ex. Germany, USA, Switzerland, Japan, Saudi, Slovenia) RNI = CBR - CDR
MIC - Middle income country (f.ex. Poland, Romania, Bulgaria)
LIC - Low income country (f.ex. Haiti, Nigeria, Senegal, Mozambique, Afghanistan)
NIC - Newly industrializing country (f.ex. China - just reached No. 1 on leaderboard for windpower)
RIC - Recently industrializing countries (f.ex. Chile - econ reforms, market liberalization)
LDC - Least developed countries (f.ex. Mali, Nepal, Sudan, Afghanistan)
categories of NIC’s showing economic growth or potential for growth:
BRICs - Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa share initiatives, currency
MINT - Mexico, Indesia, Nigeria and Turkey
CPE - centrally planned economies (f.ex. North Korea)
CIVETS - Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa
N11 - Next Eleven: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Phillipines, Turkey,
South Korea, Vietnam (countries that have potentially the fastest growing economies in the 21st century)
, Megacities & Migration Mumbai - megacity growth
Population disribution through + Population distribution inequalities (cs. China) Indias largest city - about 18million pop
financial, commercial, entertainment centre of india
most people in China live in “mega-regions & cities”, mostly Eastern part 25% of indias Industrial output, over 6% of total GDP
40% of foreign trade,
TNCs - transnational corporations + centre of bollywood
physical geography - coastal areas, lower valleys vs mountains, desert industries
access & commerce, transportation, agriculture (arable land) Per capita income about 3x national average
economic development - in big cities, creating jobs, access to facilities, businesses, Mumbai City District Mumbai Suburban District
medical care, transportation, more resources, community, education about 9million live in slums
gender ratio: 838fem/1000males - greater male migration
internal migration - due to job opportunities, into larger cities, cultural/religious poverty, under-/ unemployment, limited access to health
>>> wealth inequalities, millionaire cities, care, education, poor sanitation + access to electricity
Dharavi - main slum 2km ² 1 million ppl
China 2010 pop distribution core-periphery inequality Growth of megacities
Population growth and processing through DTM leads to
spacial changes
One of the most dynamic is the urbanization
Rapid urbanization experienced in developing countries
creates huge challenges both for local authorities and
inhabitants
Why is measuring the population of a city a difficult task
A city is considered a megacity once it surpasses 10 million
predicted to have the inhabitants
greatest number of
megacities in 2030 34 megacities already
China, India the bigger the city the more unequal life is there
Internal Migration International Migration Emmigration Immigration Migration
Pull Factors Push Factors
Conflict-Induced Displacements Voluntary migration
Migrants and Immigrants internal/
Development-Induced Displacement international
conscious decision, intention of
Disaster-Induced Displacement settling & lawful permanent
residents & citizens
---forced migration---
refugees - refugee status, protections under international laws and International
Rescue Committees
internally displaced people - not crossing international borders, cant return threat and fear of
prosecution
asylum seekers- must apply for refuge status post crossing, might not be granted based on
requirements
Development displacees
Environmental/disaster displacees
Smuggled people, slavery, traficked people
consequences
Economic Impact - Ecological Impact - Labour market adversion
increasing demand refugee camps: higher risk of poverty
consumer soil erosion, increased violence
markets,housing deforestation, pollution socio-cultural dificulties
markets, price taxes for education and integration
increases
Forced Migration (in and from) Syria
The conflict in Syria has now driven more than four million people – a sixth of the population
– to seek sanctuary in neighbouring countries, making it the largest refugee crisis for a
quarter of a century, according to the UN.
On Thursday, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, said the total number of Syrian refugees in
Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt and other parts of north Africa stood at 4,013,000 people.
With at least 7.6 million people forced from their homes within Syria, almost half the
country’s people are either refugees or internally displaced. The conflict, now in its fifth
year, has killed more than 220,000 people.
The first world (developed): Western Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand, Japan
The second world: state-controlled communist countries such as the former Soviet Union
The third world (developing): all other less developed countries
GNI - Gross national income (per capita) by mid-year population
TNS - Transnational Corporations
IDP - Internally displaced Person(s)
, highest fertility rates - poorest countries (LIC’s) Fertility Fertility Rate - indicates a countries population ability
changes in fertility rates causes to have children
due to economic and sociocultural factors
status of women - gender related development index (GDI)- Countries where women status & education & paid employment low =
birth rates high
level of education and material inhibition - generalmente: higher education = less children, middle-income fams with limited
means = smallest families, low-income fams + limited resources and ambitions = larger families, affluent = can afford children
location of residence - families in rural areas more children than urban: - more rigid social pressure on women, less state control (ex.
China one-child policy), fewer education and economic opportunities for women
Religion - most religions pro-natalist, opposed to birth control and contraception, HIC’s do not follow religious dictates strictly
Health - less healthy women become pregnant more frequently
Economic prosperity
need for children - such as high infant mortality rates, offset high mortality losses, labour, care for parents in old age
Fertility indicators Life expectancy
• Crude Birth Rate (CBR) average number of years assuming demographic factors remain
• General/Total Fertility Rate (TFR) unchanged
• Age Specific/Marital Fertility Rates
• Total /Marital Fertility Rates 80 years in developed countries (Monaco, Japan, Singapore, Macau)
• Gross Reproduction Rate under 50 years for men in Chad
• sex ratio at birth low life expecntancy in many sub-saharan countries: poverty, conflict
• education and economic levels/stats
https://www.fertilitydata.org/File/GetFile/Raw/IND_16.pdf
Mortality indicators
• Crude Death Rate (CDR)
• Total number of deaths Population policies
• Number of deaths by age and sex
• Infant mortality rate (IMR) PRO-NATALIST POLICIES ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES
• Under five mortality rate (U5MR)
• Maternal mortality rate (MMR) encourage reproduction reduce/discourage reproduction
• Age-specific mortality rates decrease birth rate
• Death rates by age and sex (qx)
increase birth rate
ageing population (increased overpopulation (insufficient resources
• Life expectancy at birth (LE, e0)
dependency ratio) for population) & population density
shortage of economically active (low young population & young-dependants
Ageing population birth and total fertility rates) (high birth rate and total fertility rate)
Pro-natalist incentives Anti-natalist incentives
welfare benefits, money (f.ex. for each increased access to contraceptives
child born) and family-planning
extended maternity/paternity leave promotional campaigns
and pay rules & regulations
free/subsided childcare bans
free/subsided education, healthcare
limited access to contraceptives China - one-child policy
tax breaks and housing benefits overpopulation
severe shortages of capital, natural resources,
and consumer goods
population planning initiative in China
implemented between 1979 and 2015/16 to
curb the country's population growth by
restricting many families to a single child
provincial level through contraception, abortion,
and fines that were imposed based on the
income of the family and other factors
if 2x pregnant, legally she had to be sterilized
many abortions of girls -> male role was to take
care and provide for parents
more women in workforce
population growth slowed down
economically active age population shrinking
old-dependency ratio increasing
Japan- ageing population
number of elderly people living alone increased from 0.8M (1975) to 2.5+M (2000)
Since 1975 young ppl grad declined - by 2015 13% of pop
2025 - 30% pop aged 65+ burden:
- inadequate nursing facilities
- depletion of labour force
- deterioration of economy
- trade deficit
- migration of industry out of Jp
- high cost of pension funds,
healthcare and
social welfare programms
- lower demand for schools
- new jobs, leisure facilitis need
- reduced demand for goods
+ more burden for working
TFR - Total Fertility Rate average number of births per 1000 women of reproductive age
GDI - Gender-related development index measures inequality bewteen sexes in life expecancy, education, standard of living
ODR - Older Dependency ratio indicator of balance between working-age pop and older pop that they need to support
UNHCR - United Nations High Commisioner for Refugees
TVPA - USA’s Trafficking and Violence Protection Act (2000)
UNODC - United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime
