Reasoning Act I Mission Memo 2025-2026 Arizona State University
Greetings Fellow Explorer:
The situation with the astelars calls for immediate action. Because the eggs were laid much
later than expected, the nests will reach unusually high temperatures before the offspring
hatch and return to sea. Such temperatures could kill a developing astelar.
If the offspring do not survive, an entire generation of these endangered creatures will be
lost. The astelars need your help.
While I focus my processors on running the Intergalactic Wildlife Sanctuary, you must analyze
the data and determine whether the embryos are healthy. Use the following questions to
guide your work.
● Is the quantity or quality of the eggs less than expected? (Appendices 1–2)
● Should we intervene to ensure that enough astelars hatch and, if so, how? (Appendix
3)
The appendices to this mission memo will guide you in answering these questions.
Once you have completed your analyses, report your conclusions to me before returning to
the sanctuary.
My processors can handle 32,941 different means of transmitting data, but apparently your
university only supports one of these means—I believe you call this Canvas. Therefore, I
prepared a standard form for entering your report in Canvas.
Do not underestimate the urgency of your work.
Universally in your debt,
The AI
,Note: You will be using the program Microsoft Excel for this assignment. We have
provided links to Excel tutorials and transcripts where applicable, to help you answer the
questions.
Appendix 1
Did the astelars lay fewer eggs than expected?
For the astelars to avoid extinction — the complete loss of the species from the universe
— their population must remain stable over time. A population remains stable when the
number of organisms born equals the number that die. Populations grow when the
number of organisms born exceeds the number that die. Populations shrink when the
number of organisms that die exceeds the number born. Therefore, the first step to
determining whether the astelars are at risk of extinction is to examine how many eggs
were laid during the current breeding season. Too few eggs would endanger the
population, because the births of offspring must compensate for the deaths of adults.
We will be going through the following steps to determine whether enough eggs were
laid during the current breeding season:
Step 1: Anticipate your analysis: Determine what observations you would expect if the
number of eggs is less than usual. This step will help us identify the evidence needed to
build an argument in Step 3.
Step 2: Determine whether the astelars laid fewer eggs than expected: Determine
whether the astelars laid fewer eggs in the current breeding season than expected from
data for past breeding seasons. This step gives us the evidence needed to build an
argument in Step 3, when we conclude whether the astelars laid fewer eggs than
expected.
Step 3: Weigh the evidence and conclude whether the astelars laid fewer eggs than
expected: Construct an argument to answer the question “Did the astelars lay fewer
eggs than expected?” Your argument will draw on your calculations in Steps 1 and 2.
, Step 1: Anticipate your analysis.
1. To construct a sound argument, one must anticipate the evidence needed to
support a claim. For Appendix 1, you can choose between two claims: 1) yes, the
astelars laid fewer eggs than expected in the current breeding season, or 2) no,
the astelars did not lay fewer eggs than expected in the current breeding season.
To that end, select the figure that best illustrates what one should expect to
observe if the astelars laid fewer eggs than expected in the current breeding
season.
In each of the three figures below, the y-axis represents the mean number of
eggs, with higher values indicating more eggs and lower values indicating fewer
eggs. The x-axis compares two periods: past breeding seasons and the current
breeding season.
a. Figure A
b. Figure B
c. Figure C