Week 7 - Electoral systems and direct democracy
Varieties of electoral systems in Europe
Majoritarian systems prioritize clear winners, accountability and stability.
Proportional systems focus on a wide variety of views and representation over stable governing
majorities.
Three elements determining electoral system
1. District size;
a. The number of legislators elected in the district (a geographical level);
b. 3 sizes;
i. Single-member districts (SMD) → UK, France;
ii. Multi-member districts (MMD) → Germany;
iii. One district for the entire country → Netherlands;
c. Easier to achieve proportionality in larger districts;
i. Imagine a district with 2 seats;
1. With 2 seats, a party with 20% of votes likely gets no seat, if two
parties hold 50% and 30%, they get 1 seat each;
ii. District magnitude directly impacts the electoral threshold in districts →
in smaller districts with fewer seats, a party needs a higher percentage of
votes to secure a seat, which acts like an unofficial threshold;
2. Electoral formula;
a. The rules according to which votes are translated into seats;
b. Majoritarian formula;
i. First-past-the post system → the candidate with the most votes wins;
, ii. Two-round-system → any candidate who receives 12.5% moves to the
second round; a candidate must obtain at least 50% of the votes to get
elected;
c. Proportionality (PR) → the share of seats that a party obtains in a given district
corresponds to its share of votes, also known as proportional representation;
d. Mixed system → combines majority and proportional representation in the
transformation of votes into seats (Germany);
3. Ballot structure;
a. Whether people vote for candidates, parties or both and;
b. Whether they have one or several votes;
c. One vote for a candidate;
i. FPTP: candidate with the most votes wins;
ii. Two-round: Runoff if no candidate gets majority in the first round;
d. One vote for a party;
i. Closed-list PR: voters pick a party; seats allocated based on party-list;
e. Multiple votes for party/candidates
i. Open-list PR: Voters select both a party and preferred candidates within
that party from on unranked list, e.g. FL, SW;
ii. Flexible list PR: voters choose a party and can adjust pre-ranked
candidate lists with preference votes, e.g NL and BE;
iii. Single transferable vote (STV); voters rank candidates; seats are filled
based on these preferences, e.g. Ireland, Malta.
Seat allocation in proportional representation
Core Principle: Seats roughly match part vote shares.
Mathematical formulas determine how many seats should be given to each party → formulas
favor either larger or smaller parties, but maintain proportional logic (D’Hondt, Hare, Droop,
Saint-Lague).
Elections to the EP
★ All EU MS use PR for EP elections;
★ Variations:
○ Flexible-list PR in most countries;
○ Closed vs. Open Lists: varies by country;
○ STV: Used in Ireland and Malta;
★ Threshold and small parties;
○ Among the large countries, France, Poland and Italy use a threshold 4-5%
whereas there is no threshold in Germany and Spain, allowing small parties
easier access.
National and European elections
In smaller, highly proportional countries, the EP elections are more disproportional → these
countries tend to have fewer representatives in the EP due to their population size.
, The consequences of electoral systems
★ Immediate → electoral outcomes;
★ Indirect → democratic representation;
★ Number of parties in the parliament.
Electoral political scientist Maurice Duverger (1951):
★ Single-Member-District systems lead to two-party systems (Duverger’s Law);
★ Proportional electoral systems tend to produce multiparty systems (Duverger’s
hypothesis).
Two reasons;
★ Mechanical effect → when there is only one seat in a district, there are likely no more
than two candidates that have a realistic chance;
★ Psychological effect → voters know this and vote strategically for higher chances of
winning.
Disproportionality and effective number of parliamentary parties
★ Majoritarian systems tend to have higher disproportionality and lower effective number
of parliamentary parties;
★ Only when there is low disproportionality, a high number of effective parties is likely.
Referendums on European integration
★ Referendums on the European Union are highly salient. Commonly, referendums are
held when a country wants to join the EU and are usually successful (except for
Switzerland and Norway).
Implications of referendums
Direct outcomes:
★ Non-membership due to referendums: Norway, Switzerland, UK;
★ Differentiated integration: Denmark, Sweden (no Eurozone);
★ Domestic impacts: Party divisions, new political alliances, and government resignations.
Indirect effects:
★ Increased government responsiveness and enhanced public engagement on EU matters;
★ Challenges: national votes on EU treaties raise the question of whether a minority should
influence the future of European integration.
Varieties of electoral systems in Europe
Majoritarian systems prioritize clear winners, accountability and stability.
Proportional systems focus on a wide variety of views and representation over stable governing
majorities.
Three elements determining electoral system
1. District size;
a. The number of legislators elected in the district (a geographical level);
b. 3 sizes;
i. Single-member districts (SMD) → UK, France;
ii. Multi-member districts (MMD) → Germany;
iii. One district for the entire country → Netherlands;
c. Easier to achieve proportionality in larger districts;
i. Imagine a district with 2 seats;
1. With 2 seats, a party with 20% of votes likely gets no seat, if two
parties hold 50% and 30%, they get 1 seat each;
ii. District magnitude directly impacts the electoral threshold in districts →
in smaller districts with fewer seats, a party needs a higher percentage of
votes to secure a seat, which acts like an unofficial threshold;
2. Electoral formula;
a. The rules according to which votes are translated into seats;
b. Majoritarian formula;
i. First-past-the post system → the candidate with the most votes wins;
, ii. Two-round-system → any candidate who receives 12.5% moves to the
second round; a candidate must obtain at least 50% of the votes to get
elected;
c. Proportionality (PR) → the share of seats that a party obtains in a given district
corresponds to its share of votes, also known as proportional representation;
d. Mixed system → combines majority and proportional representation in the
transformation of votes into seats (Germany);
3. Ballot structure;
a. Whether people vote for candidates, parties or both and;
b. Whether they have one or several votes;
c. One vote for a candidate;
i. FPTP: candidate with the most votes wins;
ii. Two-round: Runoff if no candidate gets majority in the first round;
d. One vote for a party;
i. Closed-list PR: voters pick a party; seats allocated based on party-list;
e. Multiple votes for party/candidates
i. Open-list PR: Voters select both a party and preferred candidates within
that party from on unranked list, e.g. FL, SW;
ii. Flexible list PR: voters choose a party and can adjust pre-ranked
candidate lists with preference votes, e.g NL and BE;
iii. Single transferable vote (STV); voters rank candidates; seats are filled
based on these preferences, e.g. Ireland, Malta.
Seat allocation in proportional representation
Core Principle: Seats roughly match part vote shares.
Mathematical formulas determine how many seats should be given to each party → formulas
favor either larger or smaller parties, but maintain proportional logic (D’Hondt, Hare, Droop,
Saint-Lague).
Elections to the EP
★ All EU MS use PR for EP elections;
★ Variations:
○ Flexible-list PR in most countries;
○ Closed vs. Open Lists: varies by country;
○ STV: Used in Ireland and Malta;
★ Threshold and small parties;
○ Among the large countries, France, Poland and Italy use a threshold 4-5%
whereas there is no threshold in Germany and Spain, allowing small parties
easier access.
National and European elections
In smaller, highly proportional countries, the EP elections are more disproportional → these
countries tend to have fewer representatives in the EP due to their population size.
, The consequences of electoral systems
★ Immediate → electoral outcomes;
★ Indirect → democratic representation;
★ Number of parties in the parliament.
Electoral political scientist Maurice Duverger (1951):
★ Single-Member-District systems lead to two-party systems (Duverger’s Law);
★ Proportional electoral systems tend to produce multiparty systems (Duverger’s
hypothesis).
Two reasons;
★ Mechanical effect → when there is only one seat in a district, there are likely no more
than two candidates that have a realistic chance;
★ Psychological effect → voters know this and vote strategically for higher chances of
winning.
Disproportionality and effective number of parliamentary parties
★ Majoritarian systems tend to have higher disproportionality and lower effective number
of parliamentary parties;
★ Only when there is low disproportionality, a high number of effective parties is likely.
Referendums on European integration
★ Referendums on the European Union are highly salient. Commonly, referendums are
held when a country wants to join the EU and are usually successful (except for
Switzerland and Norway).
Implications of referendums
Direct outcomes:
★ Non-membership due to referendums: Norway, Switzerland, UK;
★ Differentiated integration: Denmark, Sweden (no Eurozone);
★ Domestic impacts: Party divisions, new political alliances, and government resignations.
Indirect effects:
★ Increased government responsiveness and enhanced public engagement on EU matters;
★ Challenges: national votes on EU treaties raise the question of whether a minority should
influence the future of European integration.
