Lecture 1 – The changing climate: the science and the •2019 rainfall for the UK overall
media was 107% of the 1981–2010
average and 112% of the
Episode 1 - Introduction to climate change and past 1961–1990 average.
climates
•Six of the 10 wettest years for
Why do we have By correctly predicting the past,
the UK in a series from 1862
to know about that means we can use the
have occurred since 1998.
the past? model and get the closest
estimation (higher confidence)
Selected
for the future
significant
IPCC – ‘’Scientific evidence for warming
climate
Intergovernmen of the climate system is
anomalies and
t Panel on unequivocal.’’
events in 2019
Climate Change
What are the
facts? Summary of what’s happening
around the world.
Where are the Africa, Aussie. Warmer.
uncertainties? Main
Many reports! greenhouse
These ones are sources
peer reviewed
Earth’s radiation
balance
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Fossil
Absorption and reflection of fuel use, land use is also an
GHG. Human activities’ changing important source of CO2,
this. especially deforestation.
State of Climate • Methane (CH4) - Agricultural
2019 – UK activities, waste management,
and energy use. More potent
Anomaly – than CO2.
temperature is • Nitrous oxide (N2O) -
different from Agricultural activities, such as
the average was fertilizer use
and shows the
difference to • Fluorinated gases [F-gases
the average •2019 was the 12th warmest include hydrofluorocarbons
year during winter for the UK in (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
a series from 1884, and 24th (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride
warmest for Central England in a (SF6)] Industrial processes,
series from 1659. refrigeration, and the use
of a variety of consumer
•The Central England products
Temperature (CET) series Trends in Global
provides evidence that the 21st CO2 and total
century so far has overall been greenhouse gas
warmer than the previous emission to
three centuries 2018
, • the growth in total global Keeling curve-
(GHG) emissions (excluding CO2
those from landuse change) concentrations
resumed at a rate of 2.0%, In Hawaii
reaching 51.8 gigatonnes of CO2
equivalent1 (GtCO2 eq)
• mainly due to a larger increase August 2018 = 406.99 ppm
in global coal consumption August 1990 = 351.01 ppm
(1.4%) than in previous years, January 1978 = 334.41 ppm
mostly India, China and Russian (note: 1880 - 280ppm!)
Federation October 8th 2020 = 411.16ppm
• The five largest emitters of
GHG, together accounting for Oscillates each year between
62%, globally, are China (26%), the min and max temperature.
the United States (13%), the CO2 level drops during spring
European Union (more than (because plants bloom)
8%), India (7%), the Russian
2. Temperature Temperature histories from
Federation (5%) and Japan
changes so far! paleoclimate data (green line)
(almost 3%)
compared to the history based
The world map on modern instruments (blue
reflecting line)
carbon
emissions 2010
1. Carbon ‘’World carbon dioxide levels
dioxide changes highest for 650,000
so far! years, says US report’’ Ice cores CO2 - red
• have been changing for Temperature blue
CO2 millions of years! Link between temperature and
concentrations • bubbles trapped in ice cores CO2
for the past 500,000 years…
• there have been down- ward
fluctuations from about 280
ppm associated with repeated
glaciations
The relentless
rise of Carbon
Dioxide Temperature LATEST ANNUAL AVERAGE
increases since ANOMALY: 2019 0.99°C
Despite repeated glaciation. industrial
Since industrial revolution. revolution
Atmospheric
concentrations
of CO2 over last
2000 years
How close the model is with the
past - accurate
August 2019 Not even distribution (White =
’Total radiative forcing is global temp insufficient data)
positive, and has led to an compared to
uptake of energy by the climate average 1951-
system. The largest contribution 80
to total radiative forcing is
caused by the increase in the
atmospheric concentration of
CO2 since 1750’’- IPCC, 2013
media was 107% of the 1981–2010
average and 112% of the
Episode 1 - Introduction to climate change and past 1961–1990 average.
climates
•Six of the 10 wettest years for
Why do we have By correctly predicting the past,
the UK in a series from 1862
to know about that means we can use the
have occurred since 1998.
the past? model and get the closest
estimation (higher confidence)
Selected
for the future
significant
IPCC – ‘’Scientific evidence for warming
climate
Intergovernmen of the climate system is
anomalies and
t Panel on unequivocal.’’
events in 2019
Climate Change
What are the
facts? Summary of what’s happening
around the world.
Where are the Africa, Aussie. Warmer.
uncertainties? Main
Many reports! greenhouse
These ones are sources
peer reviewed
Earth’s radiation
balance
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Fossil
Absorption and reflection of fuel use, land use is also an
GHG. Human activities’ changing important source of CO2,
this. especially deforestation.
State of Climate • Methane (CH4) - Agricultural
2019 – UK activities, waste management,
and energy use. More potent
Anomaly – than CO2.
temperature is • Nitrous oxide (N2O) -
different from Agricultural activities, such as
the average was fertilizer use
and shows the
difference to • Fluorinated gases [F-gases
the average •2019 was the 12th warmest include hydrofluorocarbons
year during winter for the UK in (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
a series from 1884, and 24th (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride
warmest for Central England in a (SF6)] Industrial processes,
series from 1659. refrigeration, and the use
of a variety of consumer
•The Central England products
Temperature (CET) series Trends in Global
provides evidence that the 21st CO2 and total
century so far has overall been greenhouse gas
warmer than the previous emission to
three centuries 2018
, • the growth in total global Keeling curve-
(GHG) emissions (excluding CO2
those from landuse change) concentrations
resumed at a rate of 2.0%, In Hawaii
reaching 51.8 gigatonnes of CO2
equivalent1 (GtCO2 eq)
• mainly due to a larger increase August 2018 = 406.99 ppm
in global coal consumption August 1990 = 351.01 ppm
(1.4%) than in previous years, January 1978 = 334.41 ppm
mostly India, China and Russian (note: 1880 - 280ppm!)
Federation October 8th 2020 = 411.16ppm
• The five largest emitters of
GHG, together accounting for Oscillates each year between
62%, globally, are China (26%), the min and max temperature.
the United States (13%), the CO2 level drops during spring
European Union (more than (because plants bloom)
8%), India (7%), the Russian
2. Temperature Temperature histories from
Federation (5%) and Japan
changes so far! paleoclimate data (green line)
(almost 3%)
compared to the history based
The world map on modern instruments (blue
reflecting line)
carbon
emissions 2010
1. Carbon ‘’World carbon dioxide levels
dioxide changes highest for 650,000
so far! years, says US report’’ Ice cores CO2 - red
• have been changing for Temperature blue
CO2 millions of years! Link between temperature and
concentrations • bubbles trapped in ice cores CO2
for the past 500,000 years…
• there have been down- ward
fluctuations from about 280
ppm associated with repeated
glaciations
The relentless
rise of Carbon
Dioxide Temperature LATEST ANNUAL AVERAGE
increases since ANOMALY: 2019 0.99°C
Despite repeated glaciation. industrial
Since industrial revolution. revolution
Atmospheric
concentrations
of CO2 over last
2000 years
How close the model is with the
past - accurate
August 2019 Not even distribution (White =
’Total radiative forcing is global temp insufficient data)
positive, and has led to an compared to
uptake of energy by the climate average 1951-
system. The largest contribution 80
to total radiative forcing is
caused by the increase in the
atmospheric concentration of
CO2 since 1750’’- IPCC, 2013
