Lecture 2 – How vulnerable is agriculture to climate Agriculture is
change? very
vulnerable to
Episode 1. Introduction and elevated CO2 climate
Impacts change!
Food “Food security exists when all
security people, at all times, have physical, 11 major crops (wheat, rice, maize,
social and economic access to millet, field pea, sugar beet, sweet
sufficient, safe and nutritious food potato, soybean, groundnut,
which meets their dietary needs sunflower, and rapeseed) from
and food preferences for an active 2046 to 2055, compared
and healthy life” – World Food with 1996–2005
Summit, 1996
Direct, Mean of three emission scenarios
indirect and for global climate models, assuming
socio- no CO2 fertilization (a possible
economic boost to plant growth and water-
effects of use efficiency from higher ambient
climate CO2 concentrations) Kg yield/acre
change on Predicted % change in yields
agricultural The thickness of the red lines is between present and 2050.
production. indicative of the relative availability
of refereed publications on the two Northern atmosphere – positive
elements. changes in yield
Other parts : deprivation, negative
Mainly about direct effects and changes. Granularity of changes.
some of indirect effects. Simulated
Crops ‘’Crops were more responsive to crop yields
sensitivity to elevated CO2 than were wild by 2080s:
climate species…. ‘’ high
change emission
High-bred crops are bred for high scenario
yield – lost the traits to enable (both CO2 &
them to survive and produce yields temp &
and survive in extreme: low water, rainfall)
high temperature.
Need to be looked after:
fertilisation, herbicides, irrigation.
This makes them to very sensitive
to changes in climates. • South and west of Europe a
decrease of yields of 10%
• In central and north east of
Europe, decrease off 0 to 5%.
• Nordic countries, an
improvement of yields of more than
15% is projected by this model.
Winter becoming warmer and Other models might give slightly
earlier spring. different results.
, Crop yield
effects up to • A 1oC increase shortens the no. of
2013 and days from sowing to heading in rice
projected by 4-5 days (in some cultivars)
declines
• Sowing or planting dates of
several agricultural crops have been
advanced by 5 days for potatoes in
Finland (1965–1999)
•the pollen season starts on
average 10 days earlier than it did
Negative yield effects up to 2013. and is longer than it was in the
-2% changes in wheat yield 1960s – summer is longer,
A little positive changes in soybean producing pollen for longer
Widespread impacts. CASE STUDY:
Forward projected impacts. Finding the
sweet spot:
Shifting
optimal
climate for
maple syrup region of maximum sap flow is
production expected to shift northward by
in North 400 km by 2100
America. Big
business. projected that the sap collection
Average of all of these graphs. season midpoint will be 1 month
There’s a negative impacts on yields earlier and sap sugar content will
per decade. The trend is already decline across sugar maple’s range
happening. by the year 2100 in an RCP 8.5
More land (worst case scenario) climate
for change scenario
agriculture? Rate of
Northward change (days
shift in per year) of
•The leading edge of the feasible wheat
agricultural growing degree days (GDD) will
zone flowering
shift northwards up to 1200 km by times
2099
•By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to Darker red indicates earlier
89%) of the boreal region might flowering times.
reach crop feasible GDD conditions,
compared to the current 32% •value -0.4 indicates that in last 30
years the winter wheat flowering
Have to change the crops as the date has been anticipated on
climate changes average by 0.4 days per year (4
Already Advancement in spring phenology days in 10 years).
changes in of 2.8 ± 0.35 days per decade
the has been observed in plants and •In parts of Europe the modelled
phenological animals in recent decades in most wheat flowering date in last 30
phases Northern Hemisphere ecosystems years has advanced by 0.3–0.4
(seasonal e.g. days per year. (3 days in 4 years)
events) of
several crops •advance in the start of the •The thermal growing season for
in growing season of fruit trees (2.3 agricultural crops in Europe has
Europe! days/10 years) in Germany during lengthened by more than 10 days
1961–2000
change? very
vulnerable to
Episode 1. Introduction and elevated CO2 climate
Impacts change!
Food “Food security exists when all
security people, at all times, have physical, 11 major crops (wheat, rice, maize,
social and economic access to millet, field pea, sugar beet, sweet
sufficient, safe and nutritious food potato, soybean, groundnut,
which meets their dietary needs sunflower, and rapeseed) from
and food preferences for an active 2046 to 2055, compared
and healthy life” – World Food with 1996–2005
Summit, 1996
Direct, Mean of three emission scenarios
indirect and for global climate models, assuming
socio- no CO2 fertilization (a possible
economic boost to plant growth and water-
effects of use efficiency from higher ambient
climate CO2 concentrations) Kg yield/acre
change on Predicted % change in yields
agricultural The thickness of the red lines is between present and 2050.
production. indicative of the relative availability
of refereed publications on the two Northern atmosphere – positive
elements. changes in yield
Other parts : deprivation, negative
Mainly about direct effects and changes. Granularity of changes.
some of indirect effects. Simulated
Crops ‘’Crops were more responsive to crop yields
sensitivity to elevated CO2 than were wild by 2080s:
climate species…. ‘’ high
change emission
High-bred crops are bred for high scenario
yield – lost the traits to enable (both CO2 &
them to survive and produce yields temp &
and survive in extreme: low water, rainfall)
high temperature.
Need to be looked after:
fertilisation, herbicides, irrigation.
This makes them to very sensitive
to changes in climates. • South and west of Europe a
decrease of yields of 10%
• In central and north east of
Europe, decrease off 0 to 5%.
• Nordic countries, an
improvement of yields of more than
15% is projected by this model.
Winter becoming warmer and Other models might give slightly
earlier spring. different results.
, Crop yield
effects up to • A 1oC increase shortens the no. of
2013 and days from sowing to heading in rice
projected by 4-5 days (in some cultivars)
declines
• Sowing or planting dates of
several agricultural crops have been
advanced by 5 days for potatoes in
Finland (1965–1999)
•the pollen season starts on
average 10 days earlier than it did
Negative yield effects up to 2013. and is longer than it was in the
-2% changes in wheat yield 1960s – summer is longer,
A little positive changes in soybean producing pollen for longer
Widespread impacts. CASE STUDY:
Forward projected impacts. Finding the
sweet spot:
Shifting
optimal
climate for
maple syrup region of maximum sap flow is
production expected to shift northward by
in North 400 km by 2100
America. Big
business. projected that the sap collection
Average of all of these graphs. season midpoint will be 1 month
There’s a negative impacts on yields earlier and sap sugar content will
per decade. The trend is already decline across sugar maple’s range
happening. by the year 2100 in an RCP 8.5
More land (worst case scenario) climate
for change scenario
agriculture? Rate of
Northward change (days
shift in per year) of
•The leading edge of the feasible wheat
agricultural growing degree days (GDD) will
zone flowering
shift northwards up to 1200 km by times
2099
•By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to Darker red indicates earlier
89%) of the boreal region might flowering times.
reach crop feasible GDD conditions,
compared to the current 32% •value -0.4 indicates that in last 30
years the winter wheat flowering
Have to change the crops as the date has been anticipated on
climate changes average by 0.4 days per year (4
Already Advancement in spring phenology days in 10 years).
changes in of 2.8 ± 0.35 days per decade
the has been observed in plants and •In parts of Europe the modelled
phenological animals in recent decades in most wheat flowering date in last 30
phases Northern Hemisphere ecosystems years has advanced by 0.3–0.4
(seasonal e.g. days per year. (3 days in 4 years)
events) of
several crops •advance in the start of the •The thermal growing season for
in growing season of fruit trees (2.3 agricultural crops in Europe has
Europe! days/10 years) in Germany during lengthened by more than 10 days
1961–2000
