1
1. THE PENDULUM
1.1 A MISSED OPPORTUNITY
1.2 HARMONY CONTESTED
1.3 GRAY ZONE
1.4 OUTLINE
2. OVERTURE
2.1 PROGRESS
2.1.1 THE WEAKENING OF THE WEST
2.1.2 THE LIMITS OF GLOBALIZATION
2.1.3 CHINA VS. GLOBAL SOUTH
2.1.4 SECURITY
2.1.5 ENVIRONMENT
2.1.6 PERSPECTIVE
2.2 A DOUBTFUL VICTORY
2.2.1 THE COLD WAR
2.2.2 OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD
2.2.3 ECONOMIC FRAGILITY
2.2.4 DECADENCE
2.2.5 CHALLENGES ON THE HORIZON?
2.2.6 FUTURE
2.3 THE NEW ORDER SEEN FROM ELSEWHERE
2.3.1 THE NEW MONGOLS
2.3.2 CHINA’S GODDESS OF DEMOCRACY
2.3.3 LOTUS IN A MUD POND
2.3.4 THE JOURNEY OF THE MIDDLE EAST
2.3.5 THE PLAGUES OF AFRICA
2.3.6 MAQUILAS
2.3.7 SUBIC BAY
2.3.8 STRUCTURAL VIOLENCE
3. ACT 1 (1989 – 2000)
3.4 MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
3.4.1 THE DETACHING OF AMERICA INC.
3.4.2 AMERICAN HOLLOW
3.4.3 EUROSTAR
3.4.5 CARRY ON
3.5 RELUCTANCE TO LEAD
3.5.1 BLUE AREA
3.5.2 MORAL HAZARD
3.5.3 CRUISE MISSILES
3.5.4 CONTRADICTIONS
3.6 MAKING RIVALS RICH
3.6.1 “I HATE OUR CHINA POLICY!”
3.6.2 IN CHINA’S SHADOW
3.6.3 BORIS AND GEORGE
3.6.4 BLING BLING CONSERVATISM
3.6.5 KALASHNIKOV LIFESTYLE
3.6.6 FAILING TO LEAD
1
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4. ACT 2 (2000 – 2010)
4.7 DISREGARD AND DECADENCE
4.6.1 DISNEYLAND
4.6.2 SUBPRIME (ALSO KNOWN AS NOT GOOD)
4.6.3 THE AUDACITY OF HOPE
4.6.4 EUROPE’S ELASTIC RUN
4.6.5 EUROZONE
4.6.6 I AM JESUS
4.6.7 LEGITIMICY
4.8 A FOREIGN POLICY OF RECKLESSNESS
4.7.1 HUBRIS
4.7.2 CHOCOLATE MAKERS
4.7.3 CHECKBOOK
4.7.4 WORLD TRADE
4.7.5 COOKIE CUTTER
4.9 GLOBALIZATION AND THE RETURN OF POWER POLITICS
4.8.1 CHINA
4.8.2 VELVET GLOVE IMPERIALISM
4.8.3 KALININGRAD
4.8.4 AFRICAN RENAISSANCE ABORTED
4.8.5 MEDELLIN
4.8.6 VALLEY OF THE WOLVES
4.8.7 MADE IN THE WEST
5. ACT 3 (2010 – 2020)
5.10 WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?
5.10.1 AMERICAN ATROPHY
5.10.2 AMAZON
5.10.3 TRIBALISM
5.10.4 EUROPEAN FIREWALL
5.10.4.1 MORALS AND MARKETS
5.10.4.2 LESBOS
5.10.4.3 MIDDLE CLASS
5.11 ABDICATION
5.11.1 PAPER TIGER
5.11.2 PIPELINE ADDICTS
5.11.3 TWENTY TONS OF TEARGAS
5.11.4 FIG LEAF OPERATIONS
5.11.5 BLUFFING AROUND THE BATLLEFIELD
5.11.6 MULTILATERALISM
5.11.7 STRUGGLE
5.12 FRAGMENTED AND TURBULENT
5.12.1 BELT AND ROAD
5.12.2 THE HARDENING OF INFLUENCE
5.12.3 THE CROWDED WAITING ROOM OF GLOBALIZATION
5.12.4 NEOCOLONIALISM
5.12.5 HANGOVER
5.12.6 HARD HEDGING
5.12.7 FRAGMENTED AND TURBULENT
6. WATERSHED
6.1 GATHERING FORCES
6.2/6.3 2021 / CHARLES V
2
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1) PENDULUM (pg 1-19)
HARMONY CONTESTED (pg 4-9)
• The pendulum: 8 LAYERS
1) Harmony contested 5) Hubris
2) Power shift 6) The school of strife
3) Decadence trap 7) Changing nature of power
4) Making authoritarianism strong 8) The limits of learning
• Harmony contested
o 1990 – 2020: West = golden age of globalization Rest ≠ golden age
▪ What west saw as harmony The rest saw as hierarchy
o But also inside the West harmony was contested
▪ Middle class’s purchasing power stagnated The very rich became richer
▪ ↗ of rightist demagogues
• Power shift
o After 1989 the West was center of power → But this position soon eroded
▪ Externally: Others contested Western interests
▪ Internally: Loss of power → Social distress
o Shift in BOP results in tensions (Thucydides trap)
• Decadence trap
o Western markets spent beyond their means & civic engagement ↘
o Comparison with Rome
• Making authoritarianism strong
o Western consumerism → Trade deficit with authoritarian regimes
o Authoritarian regimes uses surplus for strategic purposes
• Hubris
o Remote-controlled interventionism LT presence & engagement
o Also characterized international cooperation
▪ W. expected others to be responsible stakeholders But didn’t do so itself
▪ For authoritarian regimes → Cooperation = just a means to ↗ power
• The school of strife
o W.ern liberalism assumed Positive Socialization
o But there actually was Negative Socialization
• Changing nature of power
o Power doesn’t reside in labor but in technology & capital
o Labor is declining in importance → Automatization & robotics
o Growing lethality of weaponry → Need for huge capital to upkeep proper army
• The limits of learning
o Last decades → Rise of information based societies
o Knowledge & information were present → But = worthless without action
3
, 4
GRAY ZONE (pg 9-15)
• History of world politics =/= about external politics alone
o Waltz: “Not domestic politics, but the world system shapes behavior of states”
▪ All states = forced by the behavior of other states to defend their interests
▪ = +- The argument of the School of Strife
• Study of world politics must include non-state actors
o States remain highly important
▪ But their interaction with large companies & international organizations = critical
o The same companies that influence government A are influenced BY government B
▪ Difference between W.ern & CHNs policies ²
o Multilateralism = power politics by different means
• Importance of gray zone conflict & hybrid war
o World politics = always a gray zone
▪ E.g.: CHN uses fishing boats to exert territorial claims
o Hybrid & gray = intrinsic to world politics
▪ But due to technology → Possibilities of information warfare exploded
o Hybrid wars relate to information wars
▪ E.g.: RUSn interference in 2016 US elections
o There is also the battle for minds & hearts
▪ E.g.: Authoritarian GSs campaigning to be seen as trustworthy
• Through sponsorship of sports → WC QAT
▪ W.ern society = sensitive to misinformation & propaganda
• Due to neglect of civic education
▪ W. ↗ budgets to conduct information war & to counter fake news
• But as W.ern society remains mellow at the core, this is of no use
• Many themes in IR =/= new
o The form changes but the issues aren’t entirely new
▪ E.g.: Migration, climate change & even cyber security (struggle for info dominance)
o We must steer clear from exaggeration
• Mistakes have been made by political elites, but also citizens have neglected their duties
o Citizenship = reduced to voting every once in a while & complaining
o Normal citizens show the same profit-maximizing behavior as the elites
▪ Ethics apply on both the income as the expenditure side
• W. has lost its momentum & is weakened, but won’t necessarily collapse
o Authoritarian regimes also remain fragile & lack freedom that is crucial for innovation
4
1. THE PENDULUM
1.1 A MISSED OPPORTUNITY
1.2 HARMONY CONTESTED
1.3 GRAY ZONE
1.4 OUTLINE
2. OVERTURE
2.1 PROGRESS
2.1.1 THE WEAKENING OF THE WEST
2.1.2 THE LIMITS OF GLOBALIZATION
2.1.3 CHINA VS. GLOBAL SOUTH
2.1.4 SECURITY
2.1.5 ENVIRONMENT
2.1.6 PERSPECTIVE
2.2 A DOUBTFUL VICTORY
2.2.1 THE COLD WAR
2.2.2 OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD
2.2.3 ECONOMIC FRAGILITY
2.2.4 DECADENCE
2.2.5 CHALLENGES ON THE HORIZON?
2.2.6 FUTURE
2.3 THE NEW ORDER SEEN FROM ELSEWHERE
2.3.1 THE NEW MONGOLS
2.3.2 CHINA’S GODDESS OF DEMOCRACY
2.3.3 LOTUS IN A MUD POND
2.3.4 THE JOURNEY OF THE MIDDLE EAST
2.3.5 THE PLAGUES OF AFRICA
2.3.6 MAQUILAS
2.3.7 SUBIC BAY
2.3.8 STRUCTURAL VIOLENCE
3. ACT 1 (1989 – 2000)
3.4 MISSED OPPORTUNITIES
3.4.1 THE DETACHING OF AMERICA INC.
3.4.2 AMERICAN HOLLOW
3.4.3 EUROSTAR
3.4.5 CARRY ON
3.5 RELUCTANCE TO LEAD
3.5.1 BLUE AREA
3.5.2 MORAL HAZARD
3.5.3 CRUISE MISSILES
3.5.4 CONTRADICTIONS
3.6 MAKING RIVALS RICH
3.6.1 “I HATE OUR CHINA POLICY!”
3.6.2 IN CHINA’S SHADOW
3.6.3 BORIS AND GEORGE
3.6.4 BLING BLING CONSERVATISM
3.6.5 KALASHNIKOV LIFESTYLE
3.6.6 FAILING TO LEAD
1
,2
4. ACT 2 (2000 – 2010)
4.7 DISREGARD AND DECADENCE
4.6.1 DISNEYLAND
4.6.2 SUBPRIME (ALSO KNOWN AS NOT GOOD)
4.6.3 THE AUDACITY OF HOPE
4.6.4 EUROPE’S ELASTIC RUN
4.6.5 EUROZONE
4.6.6 I AM JESUS
4.6.7 LEGITIMICY
4.8 A FOREIGN POLICY OF RECKLESSNESS
4.7.1 HUBRIS
4.7.2 CHOCOLATE MAKERS
4.7.3 CHECKBOOK
4.7.4 WORLD TRADE
4.7.5 COOKIE CUTTER
4.9 GLOBALIZATION AND THE RETURN OF POWER POLITICS
4.8.1 CHINA
4.8.2 VELVET GLOVE IMPERIALISM
4.8.3 KALININGRAD
4.8.4 AFRICAN RENAISSANCE ABORTED
4.8.5 MEDELLIN
4.8.6 VALLEY OF THE WOLVES
4.8.7 MADE IN THE WEST
5. ACT 3 (2010 – 2020)
5.10 WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?
5.10.1 AMERICAN ATROPHY
5.10.2 AMAZON
5.10.3 TRIBALISM
5.10.4 EUROPEAN FIREWALL
5.10.4.1 MORALS AND MARKETS
5.10.4.2 LESBOS
5.10.4.3 MIDDLE CLASS
5.11 ABDICATION
5.11.1 PAPER TIGER
5.11.2 PIPELINE ADDICTS
5.11.3 TWENTY TONS OF TEARGAS
5.11.4 FIG LEAF OPERATIONS
5.11.5 BLUFFING AROUND THE BATLLEFIELD
5.11.6 MULTILATERALISM
5.11.7 STRUGGLE
5.12 FRAGMENTED AND TURBULENT
5.12.1 BELT AND ROAD
5.12.2 THE HARDENING OF INFLUENCE
5.12.3 THE CROWDED WAITING ROOM OF GLOBALIZATION
5.12.4 NEOCOLONIALISM
5.12.5 HANGOVER
5.12.6 HARD HEDGING
5.12.7 FRAGMENTED AND TURBULENT
6. WATERSHED
6.1 GATHERING FORCES
6.2/6.3 2021 / CHARLES V
2
,3
1) PENDULUM (pg 1-19)
HARMONY CONTESTED (pg 4-9)
• The pendulum: 8 LAYERS
1) Harmony contested 5) Hubris
2) Power shift 6) The school of strife
3) Decadence trap 7) Changing nature of power
4) Making authoritarianism strong 8) The limits of learning
• Harmony contested
o 1990 – 2020: West = golden age of globalization Rest ≠ golden age
▪ What west saw as harmony The rest saw as hierarchy
o But also inside the West harmony was contested
▪ Middle class’s purchasing power stagnated The very rich became richer
▪ ↗ of rightist demagogues
• Power shift
o After 1989 the West was center of power → But this position soon eroded
▪ Externally: Others contested Western interests
▪ Internally: Loss of power → Social distress
o Shift in BOP results in tensions (Thucydides trap)
• Decadence trap
o Western markets spent beyond their means & civic engagement ↘
o Comparison with Rome
• Making authoritarianism strong
o Western consumerism → Trade deficit with authoritarian regimes
o Authoritarian regimes uses surplus for strategic purposes
• Hubris
o Remote-controlled interventionism LT presence & engagement
o Also characterized international cooperation
▪ W. expected others to be responsible stakeholders But didn’t do so itself
▪ For authoritarian regimes → Cooperation = just a means to ↗ power
• The school of strife
o W.ern liberalism assumed Positive Socialization
o But there actually was Negative Socialization
• Changing nature of power
o Power doesn’t reside in labor but in technology & capital
o Labor is declining in importance → Automatization & robotics
o Growing lethality of weaponry → Need for huge capital to upkeep proper army
• The limits of learning
o Last decades → Rise of information based societies
o Knowledge & information were present → But = worthless without action
3
, 4
GRAY ZONE (pg 9-15)
• History of world politics =/= about external politics alone
o Waltz: “Not domestic politics, but the world system shapes behavior of states”
▪ All states = forced by the behavior of other states to defend their interests
▪ = +- The argument of the School of Strife
• Study of world politics must include non-state actors
o States remain highly important
▪ But their interaction with large companies & international organizations = critical
o The same companies that influence government A are influenced BY government B
▪ Difference between W.ern & CHNs policies ²
o Multilateralism = power politics by different means
• Importance of gray zone conflict & hybrid war
o World politics = always a gray zone
▪ E.g.: CHN uses fishing boats to exert territorial claims
o Hybrid & gray = intrinsic to world politics
▪ But due to technology → Possibilities of information warfare exploded
o Hybrid wars relate to information wars
▪ E.g.: RUSn interference in 2016 US elections
o There is also the battle for minds & hearts
▪ E.g.: Authoritarian GSs campaigning to be seen as trustworthy
• Through sponsorship of sports → WC QAT
▪ W.ern society = sensitive to misinformation & propaganda
• Due to neglect of civic education
▪ W. ↗ budgets to conduct information war & to counter fake news
• But as W.ern society remains mellow at the core, this is of no use
• Many themes in IR =/= new
o The form changes but the issues aren’t entirely new
▪ E.g.: Migration, climate change & even cyber security (struggle for info dominance)
o We must steer clear from exaggeration
• Mistakes have been made by political elites, but also citizens have neglected their duties
o Citizenship = reduced to voting every once in a while & complaining
o Normal citizens show the same profit-maximizing behavior as the elites
▪ Ethics apply on both the income as the expenditure side
• W. has lost its momentum & is weakened, but won’t necessarily collapse
o Authoritarian regimes also remain fragile & lack freedom that is crucial for innovation
4
