This case study is mainly
focused about the Syrian
conflict. This case is also about
learning how to understand &
analyse a complex case study. It
tests what it means to get
ourselves into this critically way
of thinking. How do you deal
when something is so complex?
What is our role as Security
students? How can we in future
conflicts make a difference?
Case study
Syria
Summary lectures pt. II
Yulia Göbel
,Case study Syria (lectures II)
Page 1 of 49
,CONCEPTS..........................................................................................................................................0
SUMMARY.........................................................................................................................................0
CONCEPTS..........................................................................................................................................6
SUMMARY.........................................................................................................................................7
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................12
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................13
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................19
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................19
SHORT SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................22
PART I.....................................................................................................................................................22
PART II....................................................................................................................................................22
PART III...................................................................................................................................................23
SHORT SUMMARY II...........................................................................................................................25
LAST MAIN TAKE-AWAYS......................................................................................................................27
PART I.....................................................................................................................................................27
PART II....................................................................................................................................................27
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................27
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................28
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................34
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................35
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................40
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................41
Terrorist theories 21-11-2023
Terrorist criminals & state (embedded) actors
Concepts
The crime-terror continuum= a single group that moves to a different
point,
depending on the environment.
The profit-ideology dichotomy
Terrorists are strictly ideology driven (without any monetary aspirations)
and criminal behaviour is strictly financial driven (without any political or
ideological goals). Any kind of intersection was incidental.
Summary
One take away messages > theories try to explain the difficult concepts
(criminals, terrorists), which really work well on paper, however in practice
there are many issues.
Part 1: “Gangster Jihad” > the crime terror nexus.
Traditionally, crime & terrorism were seen as 2 distinct phenomena,
separated by the profit-ideology dichotomy.
After 9/11, the focus point switch to this ‘intersection’ between
organized crime and terrorism in various forms (crime-terror nexus).
o Drug trafficking, illicit trade in antiquities, money laundering etc.;
o “No terrorism without money”.
Tamara Makarenko: “the crime-terror continuum is the most
comprehensive theory so far”.
, Case study Syria (lectures II)
You’ve a single group (terrorists) that moves to different points
depending on the environment.
1) Operation convergence > suggests alliances or collaborations between
criminals and terrorists; each group has its own expertise.
Hezbollah & the Italian mafia who smuggled drugs in Italy;
(Parts of) Hezbollah & South American drug traffickers;
Collaborations between criminals & terrorists in identity thefts.
2) Organizational convergence > most complex one, because it is highly
theoretical, hard to identify in practice, and this can manifest in two
different phases (operational or evolutionary):
Parts of a terrorist group becomes criminal;
o This is seen in practice.
Hybridization of criminal and ideological goals within the same
group.
o One group (terrorist or criminal) in which no distinguish can be
made whether they’re ideological or monetary driven based on
their actions.
Hybrid criminal political entities.
3) Evolutionary convergence > terrorist groups completely transform in
(criminal groups?) > it’s the extreme
manifestation of this
theory.
Terrorist group would then loose completely its ideology principals
(and would become criminally again);
o Haven’t been seen in practice yet.
The role of the state in this CT-nexus
The nexus shaped by socioeconomic and geographical factors and
intrinsically linked to state fragility.
o These states are called: black holes states.
The CT-nexus is understood as something that criminals and terrorists
do, and the role of the state just exist as a weak state unable to resist
efforts of criminal enquiries.
However, this dominant narrative is increasingly being criticized and
changed since 2019, because it excludes or simplifies the role of the
state:
o “The manifestation of the nexus is fundamentally defined by the
nation state involvement” & “states can be indeed weak (due to i.e.,
corruption), but then this weakness can also be actively executed by
criminal actors infiltrating legitimate state structure (mostly due to
corruption).”
Page 1 of 49
focused about the Syrian
conflict. This case is also about
learning how to understand &
analyse a complex case study. It
tests what it means to get
ourselves into this critically way
of thinking. How do you deal
when something is so complex?
What is our role as Security
students? How can we in future
conflicts make a difference?
Case study
Syria
Summary lectures pt. II
Yulia Göbel
,Case study Syria (lectures II)
Page 1 of 49
,CONCEPTS..........................................................................................................................................0
SUMMARY.........................................................................................................................................0
CONCEPTS..........................................................................................................................................6
SUMMARY.........................................................................................................................................7
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................12
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................13
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................19
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................19
SHORT SUMMARY..............................................................................................................................22
PART I.....................................................................................................................................................22
PART II....................................................................................................................................................22
PART III...................................................................................................................................................23
SHORT SUMMARY II...........................................................................................................................25
LAST MAIN TAKE-AWAYS......................................................................................................................27
PART I.....................................................................................................................................................27
PART II....................................................................................................................................................27
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................27
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................28
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................34
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................35
CONCEPTS........................................................................................................................................40
SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................41
Terrorist theories 21-11-2023
Terrorist criminals & state (embedded) actors
Concepts
The crime-terror continuum= a single group that moves to a different
point,
depending on the environment.
The profit-ideology dichotomy
Terrorists are strictly ideology driven (without any monetary aspirations)
and criminal behaviour is strictly financial driven (without any political or
ideological goals). Any kind of intersection was incidental.
Summary
One take away messages > theories try to explain the difficult concepts
(criminals, terrorists), which really work well on paper, however in practice
there are many issues.
Part 1: “Gangster Jihad” > the crime terror nexus.
Traditionally, crime & terrorism were seen as 2 distinct phenomena,
separated by the profit-ideology dichotomy.
After 9/11, the focus point switch to this ‘intersection’ between
organized crime and terrorism in various forms (crime-terror nexus).
o Drug trafficking, illicit trade in antiquities, money laundering etc.;
o “No terrorism without money”.
Tamara Makarenko: “the crime-terror continuum is the most
comprehensive theory so far”.
, Case study Syria (lectures II)
You’ve a single group (terrorists) that moves to different points
depending on the environment.
1) Operation convergence > suggests alliances or collaborations between
criminals and terrorists; each group has its own expertise.
Hezbollah & the Italian mafia who smuggled drugs in Italy;
(Parts of) Hezbollah & South American drug traffickers;
Collaborations between criminals & terrorists in identity thefts.
2) Organizational convergence > most complex one, because it is highly
theoretical, hard to identify in practice, and this can manifest in two
different phases (operational or evolutionary):
Parts of a terrorist group becomes criminal;
o This is seen in practice.
Hybridization of criminal and ideological goals within the same
group.
o One group (terrorist or criminal) in which no distinguish can be
made whether they’re ideological or monetary driven based on
their actions.
Hybrid criminal political entities.
3) Evolutionary convergence > terrorist groups completely transform in
(criminal groups?) > it’s the extreme
manifestation of this
theory.
Terrorist group would then loose completely its ideology principals
(and would become criminally again);
o Haven’t been seen in practice yet.
The role of the state in this CT-nexus
The nexus shaped by socioeconomic and geographical factors and
intrinsically linked to state fragility.
o These states are called: black holes states.
The CT-nexus is understood as something that criminals and terrorists
do, and the role of the state just exist as a weak state unable to resist
efforts of criminal enquiries.
However, this dominant narrative is increasingly being criticized and
changed since 2019, because it excludes or simplifies the role of the
state:
o “The manifestation of the nexus is fundamentally defined by the
nation state involvement” & “states can be indeed weak (due to i.e.,
corruption), but then this weakness can also be actively executed by
criminal actors infiltrating legitimate state structure (mostly due to
corruption).”
Page 1 of 49
